Giscard re-elected president of France in 1981

[David T]

What if Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (2 February 1926 – 2 December 2020) had been re-elected in 1981? (Say that Chirac urges his supporters to vote for him. He did not do so in OTL, though he said he himself would vote for Giscard. Giscard thereafter would always blame Chirac for his defeat. ) He lost by 3.6 points to Mitterrand in OTL. 1981 French presidential election - Wikipedia One thing I wonder about is whether the Union of the Left could stay together after having lost two presidential elections in a row.​

 

[groundhogday666]

Ah, Giscard... until the very end, France very own Jimmy Carter. There are some interesting parallels between the two, although I often thought Jimmy was more sympathetic than Giscard.

And Chirac, damn it. Do you want a POD for Giscard to win ? For a start, don't make Chirac his PM in 1974-76. These two hated each others, until the very end. Giscard methodically humiliated Chirac and his wife, sometimes very cruelly. Chirac slammed the door in August 1976, created the RPR in december, took Paris mayorship in March 1977, and methodically started his political ascent from there.

(when Chirac died in 2019, I told my wife "Look, Giscard has outlived the man he hated so much for 38 years. He won't last long." Well he lasted only 15 months.
Also when Giscard went to Chirac burial and the ceremony didn't started in time, Giscard couldn't help saying aloud "typical Chirac, always late !" LMAO )

Truth be told, even without Chirac and much like poor Carter, Giscard dug his own graveyard alone.

He went dining with French families (no kidding), played accordion and football (ROTFL) to try and look more popular. he was just ridiculous, Dukakis-in-a-tank style, unfortunately.

Much more damaging, obviously, were Bokassa's diamonds and jewels. That was Giscard very own "Egale claw moment" where he lost touch with his electorate.
As political Tsar bomba, really.

Diamonds Affair - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[johnjcakos]

The problem is, if you take Chirac out of the equation before the 1974 présidential election, Giscard might not win. If you take him out later (say he dies in a car accident in November 1978 — in OTL he was seriously injured), it might be too late.

The best option might be for Chirac to be taken out of the picture after 1976 and before the 1978 general election; have the left win the election, Giscard having to appoint Mitterrand Prime minister, and winning re-election in 1981 (or earlier) when the left-wing government becomes impopular (as indeed it happened in OTL in 1988 when Mitterrand was re-elected against Chirac, his Prime minister since 1986).

 

[gaitskellitebevanite]

For a start its the end of Mitterrand's political career, he'd handed over leadership of the PS to Jospin when he was selected as the PS presidential candidate in January 1981. I cant see Mitterrand wanting to seek a first presidential term in 1988 or 1986 (Both Mitterrand and Giscard had spoken in favour of shortening the presidential term during the 1981 presidential campaign).
Giscard would probably not call a snap legislative election in 1981 as he did technically still have a presidential majority, even though the testy relations between he and Chirac had made that majority more tenuous after 1976. More likely Giscard will let the assembly see out its term with a legislative election in March 1983. While Giscard would've avoided the poor economic decisions of Mitterrand and Mauroy in adopting inflationary and then deflationary policies, the early 80s are a tricky time for any French government. If the PS get their act together the left would probably win the 1983 legislative election. If Rocard takes control of the PS - which is possible with Mitterrand gone - then his idea for a centre-left Republican Front with the Radical Party and some UDF dissenters might be feasible, especially if relations between Giscard and Chirac deteriorate to the point of Giscard preferring the moderate wing of the PS to the RPR. Perhaps more likely is Mauroy and Jospin taking leadership of the PS, with Mauroy forming a PS government after the 1983 legislative election, perhaps relying on communist support but without communist ministers or perhaps with an overall PS majority.

A 1986 presidential election would likely be between Rocard for the PS, Barre for the UDF and Chirac for the RPR. I would expect Chirac and Rocard to go to the second round, with Rocard much more likely to win over centrist Barre voters and become France's first centre-left President since 1954.

 

[Bob in Pittsburgh]

Rest in Peace Valéry Giscard d'Estaing

 

[groundhogday666]

By 1980-81 Mitterrand had a very deadly cancer and only 6 months to live - according to his physicians at least. Once he was elected president, his cancer went into a decade long remission until 1991, when it stroke back with a (pretty horrific) vengeance. Still he managed to hang on until January 1996, six months after the end of his second mandate.

Have Miterrand cancer strike earlier, 1979-80... still waiting for a 1981 President Michel Roccard TL.