As far as the Canaries go - if the Spanish ship more stuff there (that the Germans may have given them), and they get a stiffening of some German troops snuck over & some Luftwaffe, it is not at all obvious that Britain can get together an amphibious assault that will be successful. IF they are prepared, U-Boats in the neighborhood would find an amphibious assault a target-rich environment, and how many escorts can the RN pull off the Atlantic run without asking for a disaster?
I would refer you to an earlier post regarding the use of WWII-era submarines to disrupt a major amphib op like this invasion of the Canaries would be:
Bill Cameron said:During WW2, the submarines of all the powers never interfered with a major naval operation at the level presented in your time line. The physical nature of submarines at the time, the weapons available to them, and the manner in which they had to operate all mean that your depiction of the Torch convoys scattered and savaged to such an extent is ASB.
With Torch, we're not dealing with a few tens of merchant ships guarded by a double handful of escorts. Torch is a series of huge military convoys with a significant military escort presence.