I think that America's experience during the Cold War and the War on Terror proves that Realpolitik curbstomps morality every time. And you're talking about an era with less democracy and less information. I have a very hard time envisioning Iraq/Vietnam style protests against involvement with the Confederacy in the Victorian era.
Getting desperate for a plausible CSA victory scenario
- Thread starter smjb
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I think that America's experience during the Cold War and the War on Terror proves that Realpolitik curbstomps morality every time. And you're talking about an era with less democracy and less information. I have a very hard time envisioning Iraq/Vietnam style protests against involvement with the Confederacy in the Victorian era.
Actually no. The Confederates of the time were quite open about the fact that it was all about slavery, and preserving and expanding the institution. No hindsight is required. It's hard to get past Stephens Cornernstone speech.
I think you are confusing the revisionism of the lost cause which came later, with what the slavers were really talking about.
But that was damned near core geopolitics in frustrating or countering Russia. I don't see an equivalent geopolitical interest here.
In fairness men like Henry Hotze proved remarkably efficient in garnering sympathy for the Confederacy in place like France and England in 1862-1863 for a time. They managed to sidestep the slavery issue on a number of occasions by putting flack on the blockade.
Of course that doesn't mean they fooled everyone into thinking the Confederacy didn't practice slavery. The Emancipation Proclamation rather neatly nailed that one on them.
Theoretically if the CSA did gain independence then the powers of Europe (France, Britain, Spain) who had an interest in North America could see the CSA as a counterweight to the USA. That would mean the CSA had to gain independence first of course...
Not much of an interest though. North America was essentially stable, and US expansion didn't really overlap strongly with European priorities.
In contrast, there was a concerted historical effort to stop Russia at all costs.
I agree, but butterflies being what they are you might have some who want to prop up puppet regimes in Mexico, the Caribbean, Central America who see the CSA as a valuable counterweight if things go differently.
It's not incredibly likely, but it is an interesting thought.
Everybody knew that the Confederacy practiced slavery. However, they also knew that the Union practiced slavery, and that for many years they had been prepared to tolerate slavery for the sake of national unity. So the dividing line in Britain over the American Civil War mainly fell between those who thought it was inevitable that the Union would end up having to act against slavery, and those who thought it was more likely that slavery would be shored up in the event of Union victory in the interests of national harmony.
If the North makes bigger overtures to Southern Unionists and Border states slave-owners, which it may well choose to do if the war goes badly, the number of people in the first camp will shrink rapidly. It certainly did when Lincoln made his inaugural speech: before that, there had been almost no sympathy with the secession movement.
Important distinction, but the latter camp which I described don't see a newly-independent Confederacy as a counterweight to the Union so much as they see the Union, shorn of its complicity with slavery, as a counterweight to the slave-owning Confederacy which has previously controlled the government at Washington. They may have been wrong, of course, but it results from the number of British people convinced by Garrisonianism a few decades earlier.
And Spence is sacked by the Confederacy for speaking too loudly about the likelihood of slavery being abolished in an independent Confederacy. From his American Union, probably the most important pro-Confederate work published:
"Taking the most temperate view of it, stripping away all exaggerations, it remains an evil in an economical sense, —an outrage on humanity in a moral one. It is a gross anachronism, a thing of two thousand years ago — the brute force of dark ages obtruding into the midst of the nineteenth century — a remnant of elder dispensations whose harsh spirit was law — in conflict with the genius of Christianity, whose mild spirit is love. No reasoning — no statistics — no profit — no philosophy — can reconcile us to what our instinct repels. After all the arguments have been poured into the ear — there is something in the heart that spurns them. We make no declaration that all men are born equal, hut a conviction — innate — irresistible — tells us, with a voice none can stifle, that a man is a man, and not a chattel. Remove from slavery, as it is well to do, all romance and exaggeration — in order that we may deal with it wisely and calmly — it remains a foul blot, from which all must desire to purge the annals of the age."
Yeah, expansion was baked in from the start. The seceding states wanted to bring with them states in which secessionism didn't succeed on it's own - they wanted Arizona, New Mexico, and maybe even California in the west, and they claimed Kentucky and Missouri - note 13, not 11, stars on the flag. To go for a passive-aggressive approach would be to accept a 11-star "rump" confederacy, and a degree of humility about their prospects utterly alien to the CSA leadership.
Two suggestions:
First since everyone seems like because Britain had ended slavery they would not be so willing intervene on behalf of a slave nation like the CSA, how about delaying Britain's emancipation. This could likely be accomplished by butterflying William Wilburfoce.
Second suggestion: At first Bull Run many Union government officials went to watch, and some were captured. Have the entire Union government there, and simply clog the roads better with a lot more Washingtonians watching and have the CSA capture the entirety of the Union Goverment or at least enough to force a treaty threw the Senate in Captivity.
First since everyone seems like because Britain had ended slavery they would not be so willing intervene on behalf of a slave nation like the CSA, how about delaying Britain's emancipation. This could likely be accomplished by butterflying William Wilburfoce.
Second suggestion: At first Bull Run many Union government officials went to watch, and some were captured. Have the entire Union government there, and simply clog the roads better with a lot more Washingtonians watching and have the CSA capture the entirety of the Union Goverment or at least enough to force a treaty threw the Senate in Captivity.
Haven't read all the replies here, so maybe this idea has been brought up already, but would a more defensive strategy work for the South? Say, dig in in the cities at their border to force the Union troops into a series of costly and protracted sieges, meanwhile positioning troops to interfere with their supply lines and foraging parties. After a few years of this I could well see the Union succumbing to war-weariness and offering peace.
A defensive strategy, meant to wear off the will of fighting of the enemy is always the best option for the less military powerful side of a conflict. For further references, ask general Sun Tzu, the unknown compilers of the 36 Strategems Book... and, prehempting some very predictable comments, also president Ho Chi Minh
.It depends on whether you want a sustainable 'Confederacy' or not
So you probably need at least the minimal 11 states that seceded. Here are a few more common and less common possibilities from 1861, I think some of these may have already been mentioned:
December 1860: Instead of resignation, Secretary of War John Floyd stays at his posts and completes the transfer of heavy cannonry from Northern arsenals to Southern installations in Galveston and Mississippi. He successfully defends the charges of fraud and conspiracy against him in March 1861 and is not available as general for the Battle of Carnifex Ferry. If the Confederacy wins the battle and might be able to push McClellan out of West Virginia altogether. Floyd might also be able to do more damage before he leaves the Union as well. Montgomery Meigs may not be able to be recalled in time to serve as quartermaster general for the Union, perhaps he is discharged outright or given a field command instead.
February 1861a: Robert Toombs of Georgia is elected President of the new Confederacy, he negotiates an end to the Fort Sumter crisis and begins to negotiate for release of the other states. Quietly he sends agents abroad and garners recognition from the UK and France before shots are fired in hostility, leading to an arbitration by the UK favorable to the Confederacy in early 1862.
February 1861b: Alexander Stephens of Georgia is elected President of the Confederacy and uses his friendship with Lincoln and others from his Congressional days to similar effect.
March 1861a: Joseph Johnston remains as Quartermaster General long enough for Robert E. Lee to be named head of the Army of Virginia and be the overall field commander at First Bull Run.
March 1861b: Nathaniel Lyon tries to use his connections in Washington DC to be named head of the Federal arsenal in St Louis, upon his attempt Lyon's superior is notified and has Lyon demoted for insubordination and transferred to Virginia. Anyone with Southern sympathies who takes the post (Perhaps this is where Joseph Johnston is stationed if he remains Quartermaster?) will likely surrender it to the pro-southern forces under Governor Jackson and avoid the Camp Jackson affair, giving the Confederacy control of the state.
April 1861: Benjamin Butler's army massacres rioters in Baltimore and sacks businesses for food. Guerillas destroy rail lines and down telegraph lines between Philadelphia and Baltimore as Butler deals with a riot that engulfs not only the police but the 6th Massachusetts militia as well. Many in the crowd become armed after a firefight later attributed to a Massachusetts militiamen causes rioting to intensify the next day. Butler occupies Federal Hill and begins using artillery to clear the streets, hoping the fear of overwhelming force will restore order in the city. This backfires, and the Maryland State Legislature approves a secession ordinance, isolating Washington DC and having Lord Lyons inform his superiors.
June 1861: Instead of boycotting the 1860 special election polls, Kentuckians turn out in droves, putting equal numbers of Confederate and Union sympathizers in Congress. Magoffin adheres strictly to neutrality and takes Kentucky out of the fight as much as possible. When 'Bull' Nelson builds pro-union Camp Dick Robinson in Garrard County, the state legislature takes this as an invasion and sign that the Union will not respect the state's neutrality. Kentucky secedes from the Union by very narrow margins shortly thereafter.
November 1861: Trent affair goes badly, UK intercedes as France throws in to announce its support of the Confederacy (its troops already gearing up for intervention in Mexico).
So you probably need at least the minimal 11 states that seceded. Here are a few more common and less common possibilities from 1861, I think some of these may have already been mentioned:
December 1860: Instead of resignation, Secretary of War John Floyd stays at his posts and completes the transfer of heavy cannonry from Northern arsenals to Southern installations in Galveston and Mississippi. He successfully defends the charges of fraud and conspiracy against him in March 1861 and is not available as general for the Battle of Carnifex Ferry. If the Confederacy wins the battle and might be able to push McClellan out of West Virginia altogether. Floyd might also be able to do more damage before he leaves the Union as well. Montgomery Meigs may not be able to be recalled in time to serve as quartermaster general for the Union, perhaps he is discharged outright or given a field command instead.
February 1861a: Robert Toombs of Georgia is elected President of the new Confederacy, he negotiates an end to the Fort Sumter crisis and begins to negotiate for release of the other states. Quietly he sends agents abroad and garners recognition from the UK and France before shots are fired in hostility, leading to an arbitration by the UK favorable to the Confederacy in early 1862.
February 1861b: Alexander Stephens of Georgia is elected President of the Confederacy and uses his friendship with Lincoln and others from his Congressional days to similar effect.
March 1861a: Joseph Johnston remains as Quartermaster General long enough for Robert E. Lee to be named head of the Army of Virginia and be the overall field commander at First Bull Run.
March 1861b: Nathaniel Lyon tries to use his connections in Washington DC to be named head of the Federal arsenal in St Louis, upon his attempt Lyon's superior is notified and has Lyon demoted for insubordination and transferred to Virginia. Anyone with Southern sympathies who takes the post (Perhaps this is where Joseph Johnston is stationed if he remains Quartermaster?) will likely surrender it to the pro-southern forces under Governor Jackson and avoid the Camp Jackson affair, giving the Confederacy control of the state.
April 1861: Benjamin Butler's army massacres rioters in Baltimore and sacks businesses for food. Guerillas destroy rail lines and down telegraph lines between Philadelphia and Baltimore as Butler deals with a riot that engulfs not only the police but the 6th Massachusetts militia as well. Many in the crowd become armed after a firefight later attributed to a Massachusetts militiamen causes rioting to intensify the next day. Butler occupies Federal Hill and begins using artillery to clear the streets, hoping the fear of overwhelming force will restore order in the city. This backfires, and the Maryland State Legislature approves a secession ordinance, isolating Washington DC and having Lord Lyons inform his superiors.
June 1861: Instead of boycotting the 1860 special election polls, Kentuckians turn out in droves, putting equal numbers of Confederate and Union sympathizers in Congress. Magoffin adheres strictly to neutrality and takes Kentucky out of the fight as much as possible. When 'Bull' Nelson builds pro-union Camp Dick Robinson in Garrard County, the state legislature takes this as an invasion and sign that the Union will not respect the state's neutrality. Kentucky secedes from the Union by very narrow margins shortly thereafter.
November 1861: Trent affair goes badly, UK intercedes as France throws in to announce its support of the Confederacy (its troops already gearing up for intervention in Mexico).
The first to shoot loses the PR contest which is, in the first non-war phase of the crysis, everything.
I had another idea: change Edmund Ruffin (a guy that makes Butler look like a calm and reflexive guy) life and make him a staunch supporter of the Union. After Lincoln election, make him do something supremely stupid, like for example attempting a Jeff Davis assination. From then on, the dogs of war are free and the guilt is squarely on the North.
I had another idea: change Edmund Ruffin (a guy that makes Butler look like a calm and reflexive guy) life and make him a staunch supporter of the Union. After Lincoln election, make him do something supremely stupid, like for example attempting a Jeff Davis assination. From then on, the dogs of war are free and the guilt is squarely on the North.
Saphroneth
Banned
I'm not sure it's required - Britain and France intervened on behalf of the Ottomans (slavers of whites, let alone non whites, at the time) against Russia (who emancipated serfs before the Union made slavery illegal, as it happens).
Mind you, the emancipation of the serfs only happened after (and largely as a result of) Russia's defeat in the Crimean War.