Geronimo : What if Osama Bin Laden was killed prior to 9/11?
- Thread starter Iwanh
- Start date
This "isis" isn't truly about OTL isis right? It mean something terror and chaos would blasted in the Iraq right?
Off topic
Some butterflies pop culture Thing :
What if Stefani Germanotta never used Lady Gaga as her stage name? (2005, 2006)
What if just like Taylor Swift, Katy Perry and Justin Bieber's career never take off? (2007,2008)
If so, TTL 2010s pop culture would beyond recognition
Does Ian and Anthony posted a video on WebTube still? (2006)
Ratatouille !!!!!!!!! (2007)
24 (TV series) in Geromino universe
(Also this is my first alt history wikibox)
(Iwanh once said it was canceled after season 2 in TTL)
(And I'm expecting there would be some mistakes which I didn't realized it yet, such as maybe some editior was joined after OTL seasons 2 and they shouldn't on the box.
If so, please point it out, thank you)
(Also this is my first alt history wikibox)
(Iwanh once said it was canceled after season 2 in TTL)
(And I'm expecting there would be some mistakes which I didn't realized it yet, such as maybe some editior was joined after OTL seasons 2 and they shouldn't on the box.
If so, please point it out, thank you)
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ISIS technically existed since 1999 under the name Islamic State of Iraq. It's only in 2014 they became the infamous terror group that made Al-Qaeda shit their pants as well.
ISIS is 25 years old? I had no idea they have been around for that long. I though that it was only about a decade old.
I hope not.
It wasn't actually ISIS, but they are direct successors of the original group. In 1999 al-Zarqawi (the guy behind the Jordan Millennium attacks ITTL) formed Jama'at, and during the Iraq War, he pledged loyalty to Bin Laden and became the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq. However, he often was at odds with the leaders of al-Qaeda because he was completely insane and obsessed with provoking a sectarian conflict against the Shias. After he was killed in 2006, his successor renamed the group "Islamic State of Iraq", which eventually became ISIS when they started to gain territory in Syria.
ITTL Jama'at hasn't merged with al-Qaeda but al-Zarqawi has formed a tacit alliance with Uday Hussein to assist them in the civil war against the Sadrists. So I would say that they are just as insane as IOTL but much more focused on the Middle East and their genocidal war against the Shias, rather than on terrorist attacks in the West.
If it's the same ISIS as OTL I'm assuming no. From what I've gathered a big reason groups like ISIS were able to gain so much traction IOTL was the de-Ba'athification programs initiated by the US in Iraq dissolving the military and basically rebuilding the entire government from scratch, which created a power vacuum jihadist groups were more than happy to fill. With no de-Ba'athification and Saddam still in power there are many fewer reasons for disaffected Sunnis to throw their lot in with the jihadists. Obviously said jihadists are still very much a thing ITTL Iraq with Zarqawi & co. gaining influence thanks to the government collaborating with them against Sadr's forces, but I don't see something on the level of OTL ISIS happening yet.
Saddam is probably cooked in the long run: the Sadrists are holding their own and the US is 100% going to start ramping up support for them. Its' not like OTL Syria where Assad had major international support from Russia and others, Saddam doesn't really have any relevant international allies to object to the US doing everything short of a ground invasion to get rid of him. Granted, without the US launching a full-scale invasion progress is going to be much slower and bloodier. I can see Sadr being able to take control over the territory within the southern no-fly zone, especially with the US turning it into a "no-drive zone" and basically making it impossible for the Iraqi military to conduct operations there. Here's an ethnic map of Iraq in 2000 with the no-fly zones overlaid in red.
I can probably see Western support being sufficient for the Sadrists to take most Shia areas north of the NFZ and crucially, Baghdad. But it's going to be nigh-impossible for the Sadrists to gain ground in the majority-Sunni areas. Keep in mind, the Mahdi Army is an explicitly sectarian militia, I doubt any Sunnis will be chomping at the bit to join them. Even if Baghdad falls I have a feeling that Saddam will just flee to Tikrit or wherever and continue fighting from there. However, Saddam won't live forever, Iwanh has implied that his health is in decline, and when he does kick the bucket Uday is waiting in the wings to take over. Uday being Uday, I doubt the Ba'athist government would last long with him in charge and I can see him getting couped, followed by whatever is left of the Ba'athist government attempting to hammer out a power-sharing agreement with the Sadrists.
Maybe Sadr’s advance into central Iraq makes Zarqawi’s Jamaat militia much more appealing for Sunnis and viola, a smaller but no less nasty ISIS
Depends on the state of the Iraqi military. Without it being completely disbanded there won't be as big a reason for unemployed soldiers to join up with jihadist groups, but I imagine Jamaat has much higher morale than the regular army, and with Uday calling the shots I can see them gaining de facto control of a lot of Sunni-majority areas.
Hey guys
Given that TTL Google never bought YouT......I mean WebTube
As far as I searched, many people thinking that You/Web Tube wouldn't have survived, they would shut down before 2010
Did you agree? Or not?
Given that TTL Google never bought YouT......I mean WebTube
As far as I searched, many people thinking that You/Web Tube wouldn't have survived, they would shut down before 2010
Did you agree? Or not?
Maybe. The tech wasn’t that hard to reproduce so I could see social media companies starting to disallow cross-posting in favor of proprietary video hosting, which would probably sink YT eventually
