Germany doesn't invade the Netherlands in 1940

[pompejus]

A couple of months ago I posed a what if about The Netherlands in WWI. Now I decided to ask the opposite question (well at least some kind of opposite):
What if Nazi-Germany decided not to invade The Netherlands on 10 may 1940.

The Netherlands was neutral during the first world war and hoped to stay neutral during world war 2. according to the wikipedia article about the invasion (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Netherlands) a lot of Germans where against the idea of invading the Netherlands. What if Hitler decided not to invade the Netherlands (He could easily invade it anyway when they had defeated France, UK and Russia).

I doubt that not invading The Netherlands would have a major impact on the start of the war. France and Belgium would probably still be defeated. Because of the units that where used in the Netherlands perhaps a bit earlier, but i doubt it would be much. Goring said he wanted to used Dutch airfields against Britain. That isn't possible, but i don't think it would have a major impact on the war.

The thing that is most interesting is Japan and the Dutch East Indies. Would Japan still invade them if The Netherlands is neutral? If they do how would Germany react? Quickly invade the Netherlands before it can join the allies? Condemn the Japanese invasion?

So what do you think? I agree that it may be a bit unlikely for Germany not to invade the Netherlands, but certainly not impossible.

 

[ninebucks]

9th July, 1973, Today, Dutch Prime Minister and Nobel Laureatte Anne Frank personally paid tribute to the soldiers of the combined American, British, Commonwealth, Free French and Dutch invasion of the Third Reich, which occured thirty years ago today.

Frank, herself a secular Jew, emphasised the importance of the Netherlands in defeating the genocidal regime of Adolf Hitler, "if it had not been for bravery and valour of those in attendance today, the Nazi forces could have easily murdered many more than the three and a half million that they did," Frank said at the ceremony attended by Queen Beatrix and the Heads of States of many allied and axis nations.

The Soviet Ambassador to the Netherlands, Anton Petrovich, echoed the Prime Minister's words, "Hazzah for our Dutch comrades! The Soviet Union congratulates you for your role in vanquishing the Nazi scourge."

Historians often argue about why Germany never attempted to invade the Netherlands, despite being several times stronger than the Kingdom. Leading theories emphasise that the Nazi ideology was only ever in favour of expanding into the East, and sought not to agitate western powers, while others postulate that Hitler did not have the neccessary leadership skills to order his army to invade the Netherlands.

 

[Fellatio Nelson]

So what do you think? I agree that it may be a bit unlikely for Germany not to invade the Netherlands, but certainly not impossible.

Perhaps:

i) If the German assessment of the Dutch 'Fortress Holland' strategy concluded that it could get bogged down and would tie up a lot of resources, including vital combat engineers needed to ford obstacles, that would be better employed in Belgium and France during May 1940.

Given that a good many German officers thought the French campaign could quickly end up once again in trenches in Flanders, it might have been viewed as wisest not to have the Dutch fighting them to the north.

OTL the Germans encountered a fair few problems with the invasion, many of which were circumvented using ruses (e.g. dressing up as Dutch soldiers and gaining the help of Dutch sympathisers).

ii) It was realised that German aircraft did not need the Netherlands to attack the UK in greater numbers: once France and Belgium had fallen it would be largely irrelevant; and as long as the Dutch govt. was complicit - maybe quite likely given that the UK would kill their overseas trade - they could remain independent.

 

[Max Sinister]

The question is whether the "sickle cut" attack made by the Wehrmacht could've succeeded if they had less space to maneuver.

 

[Michael B]

1941: In view of the increasing threat by Japan to the East Indies (especially now they have occupied Indo China), in August the Dutch send the Tromp and Jacob van Heemskerck cruisers plus three destroyers. In addition they approach the Americans about the purchase of modern fighters.

As they sail along the north coast of Sumatra , the Tromp and one destroyer are sunk by the Japanese submarine I-65. Half a day later the remaining three ships are attacked and sunk by Japanese bombers based in Saigon.

This action cause the British to cancel sending the Prince of Wales and Repulse to the Far East when no aircraft carrier escort can be found.

 

[Matt]

The question is whether the "sickle cut" attack made by the Wehrmacht could've succeeded if they had less space to maneuver.

That's my thought. The invasion of the Netherlands gave Germany a large amount of room to maneuver. If they came through the Belgium frontier, it would be no more then Schilffen Plan 2.0. Conversly German can afford to simply through more forces at the Belgians, including an SS division(who's quality was dubious at the time, but man they liked to die) and 2 Air Landing Divisions.

France might of course winding up violating Dutch neutrality, something they considered OTL if the Germans didn't do it first.

 

[Thande]

On the Dutch East Indies question -- a non German occupied Netherlands does not necessarily mean the Japanese won't invade. Consider that the Japanese occupied Portuguese Timor (now East Timor) and Portugal never declared war.

 

[pompejus]

9th July, 1973, Today, Dutch Prime Minister and Nobel Laureatte Anne Frank personally paid tribute to the soldiers of the combined American, British, Commonwealth, Free French and Dutch invasion of the Third Reich, which occured thirty years ago today.

Frank, herself a secular Jew, emphasised the importance of the Netherlands in defeating the genocidal regime of Adolf Hitler, "if it had not been for bravery and valour of those in attendance today, the Nazi forces could have easily murdered many more than the three and a half million that they did," Frank said at the ceremony attended by Queen Beatrix and the Heads of States of many allied and axis nations.

The Soviet Ambassador to the Netherlands, Anton Petrovich, echoed the Prime Minister's words, "Hazzah for our Dutch comrades! The Soviet Union congratulates you for your role in vanquishing the Nazi scourge."

Historians often argue about why Germany never attempted to invade the Netherlands, despite being several times stronger than the Kingdom. Leading theories emphasise that the Nazi ideology was only ever in favour of expanding into the East, and sought not to agitate western powers, while others postulate that Hitler did not have the neccessary leadership skills to order his army to invade the Netherlands.

I personaly doubt that Anne Frank had any political aspirations and consider it unlikely that she would become Prime-Minister. If she survived the war she probably would become one of the most important Dutch writers (she even is one now and she wrote only one book at age 15, what she could have become if she lived noone will sadly ever know). But you are right that if the Netherlands wouldn't have been invaded a lot of Jews would have survived, including probably a lot of Jewish refugees from other occupied countries like Belgium or France. A Jewish Prime Minister is certainly possible in 1973 (Even though in OTL Beatrix wasn't the Dutch queen in that year, but het mother Juliana)
But I doubt the Netherlands would be of any help defeating the Nazi's. If Germany doesn't declare war, they would probably stay neutral during the entire war and possibly after it. The Netherlands wouldn't join NATO, because the neutrality policy works and probably would join the eu (assuming there will be one) as late as other neutral countries like OTL Austria, Sweden and Finland did in 1995.

France might of course winding up violating Dutch neutrality, something they considered OTL if the Germans didn't do it first.

Would invading the Netherlands have any use when Germany had invaded France? I would have thought that the Netherlands is too far away from France. Belgium i can understand (but they are already in the war at this point) but not the Netherlands.

On the Dutch East Indies question -- a non German occupied Netherlands does not necessarily mean the Japanese won't invade. Consider that the Japanese occupied Portuguese Timor (now East Timor) and Portugal never declared war.

I can imagine Japan still invading the Dutch east Indies. They could still use the oil there. But I was wondering what Germany would do. When Japan attacked the US, Germany declared war at the US too. Would Germany do the same to the Netherlands? The Netherlands lies a lot closer to Germany than Portugal and would therefore be a lot more dangerous than Portugal for Germany if they sided with the allies. The Dutch East Indies is also a lot larger than east Timor and a lot more important for the Netherlands. They would certainly fight to protect it, which could perhaps mean joining the allies, at least in Asia. I can imagine Germany invading the Netherlands at this point because they fear that they join the allies and so providing a good starting point for an attack against Germany. Germany could of course try to 'convince' the Netherlands by 'diploamtic means' (basicly threaten to invade them) not to join the allies side in Asia.

 

[Tyr]

Go and play HOI2 and try and not invade the Netherlands and you'll see the problem.
The Belgians had a bit of a Magniot line of their own to defend against German invasion and their border with Germany on its own was quite a small front.
The Germans needed to open up the Netherlands to attack Belgium from all directions and overun it as they did. If they hadn't then I'd imagine their advance through Belgium would be a lot bumpier- so much so that the allies may be able to get together a decent defence and stop the Blitzkreig.

 

[Anneessens]

I personaly doubt that Anne Frank had any political aspirations and consider it unlikely that she would become Prime-Minister. If she survived the war she probably would become one of the most important Dutch writers (she even is one now and she wrote only one book at age 15, what she could have become if she lived noone will sadly ever know). But you are right that if the Netherlands wouldn't have been invaded a lot of Jews would have survived, including probably a lot of Jewish refugees from other occupied countries like Belgium or France. A Jewish Prime Minister is certainly possible in 1973 (Even though in OTL Beatrix wasn't the Dutch queen in that year, but het mother Juliana)

It's a minor point, but coming to think of it, this might also have repercussions for the Dutch monarchy. Wilhelmina might not have abdicated because of her disillusionment with the old parties, politicians and political costums re-emerging after Liberation. This means the tradition of monarchs abdicating might not start, which means Queen Juliana might reign until her death (albeit under a regency).
Prince Bernhard would never have the change to present himself as a Dutch patriot and Nazi fighter. This means he'll probably keep his image of German and former Nazi, which might mean that the Lockheed scandal might be a much larger blow to the Dutch monarchy. Then again, it's hard to imagine the Dutch monarchy actually falling.

It would of course change Dutch domestic politics. De Geer might end his term as PM, and perhaps even win a second. He would certainly not be condemned by court after the war. Perhaps the Dutch SDAP (Labour) might not unite with the leftist liberals (VDB) and the christian left (CDU), at least not for a couple of years.
I wonder what this means for Mussert. Perhaps German successes might encite more people to vote for him, but more probably Dutch patriotism would turn against him. But would the Dutch authorities dare to lock him up? Perhaps not. Then again, the Germans probably'll have enough on their mind to worry about some Dutch would-be führer. He'll probably die in bed of old age, his party, if not forbidden, having lost all significance at the end of the war.

 

[esl]

The importance of the lowlands is the lure to draw BEF and the best French force northward thereby allowing the panzer thrust to have any effect at all. If they can't be lured north they can't be cut off and defeated by such a maneuver.That likely would have required more time and effort to defeat the Allies , perhaps months. It would be difficult to build up the illusion of an invasion of the UK in the winter months of 1940 . So either BoB /sealion would be put off until the spring of 1941 and Barbarossa put off until late 1941,or all preperations and efforts go into Barbarossa implimented early in 1941 to give more time to win. Otherwize given how difficult any invasion of UK would have been, likely any follow on Barbarossa would have been put off until early 1942.

I suspect that the 'easier' defeat of the French lulled Hitler and some Germans into thinking defeating the USSR 'might' be doable. This inturned ,given enought time , may have deluded them into thinking the USSR would be no more difficult to defeat than France?