What if the Germans had succeeded in their summer 1942 offensive into the Caucasus, say by sending both Panzer groups towards the oilfields at Baku, Maikop, and Grozny, and just masking the Volga front as originally planned? What would have been the consequences? Would Germany have been able greatly to expand the Luftwaffe and motorised forces? Would they have been able to invest the proper amount of training in the Panzer troops and pilots, which historically was greatly hampered by oil shortages? Would Russia's war effort have been crippled? Would Turkey have been persuaded to join the war as an Axis ally? What would have been the other consequences?
Germans capture the Caucasus oilfields 1942
- Thread starter Alan
- Start date
I find unlikely that they would be able to seize the oil fields or, worse, seize them intact.
So, while Germany wouldn't benefit from the them, the offensive might cause the oil production to be disrupted, either due bombing, Soviets destroying them fearing they would fall, or the Soviet supply chain disrupted.
That should hurt the Soviet war effort for several months. But, unless Germany and the USSR agree to a ceasefire, it won't prevent an eventual German defeat. It should take longer and the Western Allies would probably negotiate to get a larger portion of Europe in the post war.
So, while Germany wouldn't benefit from the them, the offensive might cause the oil production to be disrupted, either due bombing, Soviets destroying them fearing they would fall, or the Soviet supply chain disrupted.
That should hurt the Soviet war effort for several months. But, unless Germany and the USSR agree to a ceasefire, it won't prevent an eventual German defeat. It should take longer and the Western Allies would probably negotiate to get a larger portion of Europe in the post war.
Simply masking the Volga sounds like asking for trouble. If the screen is too weak or incomplete, and with Stalingrad as an intact logistics hub, then could the Soviet winter counteroffensive try to cut all German links to the Caucasus?
BlairWitch749
Banned
they tried sending both panzer groups south at the start of the campaign, and then they discovered that there were not enough roads to support them in a general advance, and Kliest bitched and bitched until the 4th panzer army was moved out of his way
those oil fields are for the soviet union as vital as for germany.
you can bet that stalin would throw everything available in the general direction of baku, everything else can wait.
you can bet that stalin would throw everything available in the general direction of baku, everything else can wait.
You don't just "mask" the Volga...
Because if you do, the Soviet counter attack will reach Rostov, and all your forces in the Caucasus will be cut off...
The oportunity presented would lead the soviets to rethink the "planets" plans and the obvious thing to do would be to cancel Mars and just cut through Axis (mostly allies probably) masking the Volga and drive straight to Rostov.
Because if you do, the Soviet counter attack will reach Rostov, and all your forces in the Caucasus will be cut off...
The oportunity presented would lead the soviets to rethink the "planets" plans and the obvious thing to do would be to cancel Mars and just cut through Axis (mostly allies probably) masking the Volga and drive straight to Rostov.
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With the Caucasus oilfields in German hands, the Russians will have a major fuel problem. It most likely won't win the war, but the Soviet offensives will be slow down a lot.
And Germany will be trying to defend a looong flank with not nearly enough troops, thus a soviet counter-attack out of Stalingrad is going to power right through to the sea, cutting off the Germans well out of the range where the :uftwaffe could even attempt a resuplly mission, and leaving probably not nearly enough forces for a counter-attack. OTOH, the Caucasus oil production might suffer quite a bit, so the only ones likely to win out of this are the western allies.
Given the logistics it's unlikely that the Germans can reach the oilfields and then hold them against the inevitable Soviet counteroffensive. The best plan of action for Germany is to advance to Astrakhan and cut off the Caucasus from the rest of the USSR.
The Volga line is definitely better, because there were no real Soviet formations left in the Caucasus. Also, the logistics of two envelopments needed to dislodge Germans from both Stalingrad and Astrakhan would be a major challenge to the Soviets.
On the other other hand, that's a LOT more area to cover and for vehicles to cross for the Germans, with pretty poor infrastructure (worse than Donbass!)
Still an enormous logistical challenge, and leaves German forces on a massive flank open to counterattack.
Blau could never succeed in any form because it was flawed in every way; the logistics didn't exist to sustain operations, and the forces didn't exist to complete operations. Army Group South was operating on three strategic axis; Voronezh, Stalingrad, and the Caucasus. The nature of the fighting would force it to commit to all three in some way, thus preventing it from accomplishing anything.
katchen
Banned
If the Germans take Astrakhan, the Soviets WILL have to build, on an emergency basis, a Krasnovodsk-Gurgan railroad (a distance of about 50 miles and start supplying the Transcaucasus via the Trans-Iranian Railway to Teheran and the Teheran-Yerevan-Baku railway. Look to Russia to really occupy most or all of Iran in that case--and install a communist government. The Russians will be relying on the Middle East oilfields in the event the Caucasus oilfields do fall. The Russians may even occupy Mosul and Kirkuk in Iraq and build a railroad to Iraq, also on a crash basis (though an Abadan-Basra rail link might accomplish the same thing, possibly even also tying in Kuwait).
But the Germans will not get all the way to Baku. For if the Germans are lucky enough to get to Makhkachkala (Dagestan), they will face extremely stiff resistance along the narrow belt between the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea all the way to Derbent and Baku. Somewhere in that corridor will be this TL's Stalingrad, the place the Germans just can't get past.
For one soviets did blow up some oilfields. I think most were repaired to 1942 levels only in 1950s. OK, there wasn't much rush to repair them but shows how wrecked they can be.
And even if germans capture them then what? Having them does jack shit you need to transport oil back to Germany. Considering the area was just fought over there aren't that many operational pipelines which means Germans will have a lot of troubles shipping it where it's needed.
So, to reacap:
-Germans can't capture oilfields because logistics and force/space ratios are against them
-Even if they can capture oilfields they can't capture them intact making whole capture moot point
-Even if they can capture them intact they can't exploit them because they lack logistic network to ship oil around.
And even if germans capture them then what? Having them does jack shit you need to transport oil back to Germany. Considering the area was just fought over there aren't that many operational pipelines which means Germans will have a lot of troubles shipping it where it's needed.
So, to reacap:
-Germans can't capture oilfields because logistics and force/space ratios are against them
-Even if they can capture oilfields they can't capture them intact making whole capture moot point
-Even if they can capture them intact they can't exploit them because they lack logistic network to ship oil around.
In OTL, the Soviets came quite close to cutting off the German retreat from the Caucasus in Little Saturn. If the Germans make it to Baku (or Astrakhan for that matter) as the only PoD, the additional distance they'd need to retreat (not to mention stretching their lines further) would probably mean the encirclement and destruction of the Army Group.
Katchen: I don't see why a Soviet occupation of Iran or Iraq would be necessary if the Germans did make it to Astrakhan. Iran was already occupied following the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran, and large amounts of Lend-Lease supplies were already being shipped along the Trans-Iranian Railway. Since Iraq was a British puppet, can't see why the Soviets would feel the need to alienate them in that way. Am I missing something here?
Katchen: I don't see why a Soviet occupation of Iran or Iraq would be necessary if the Germans did make it to Astrakhan. Iran was already occupied following the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran, and large amounts of Lend-Lease supplies were already being shipped along the Trans-Iranian Railway. Since Iraq was a British puppet, can't see why the Soviets would feel the need to alienate them in that way. Am I missing something here?
I read somewhere that according to Japanese intelligence, the Soviet Union had oil reserves for a few years of the war.
I think a lot of people around here are forgetting some crucial bits that need to be pointed out:
1. If Germany is to have any chance of reaching Astrahan and/or Baku, that means Fall Blau has to have gone far better - my suggestion would be that, in their august 29th attack, the Germans manage to trap the 64th and a large part of the 62nd Soviet armies just outside Stalingrad (instead of falling just short).
2. If Fall Blau has gone better, it means
- Stalingrad has been secured
- no grinding battle of attrition, preserving a lot of German strength
- Axis forces can now focus on consolidating their hold of the Don and Volga lines by eliminating all the leftover Soviet salients and bridgeheads
- lack of existing bridgeheads will seriously hamper any future Soviet counteroffensive come winter
3. With less intense fighting in the north, the Italian alpini divisions can be sent to where they excel, i.e. the mountains, instead of having to cover the steppes - this release German formations (which were inadequate for mountain warfare) for use up north
4. No street fighting in Stalingrad will also mean that the Germans will have a considerable strategic reserve for use during the winter. If used correctly, this force has a chance to stop the Soviets in a battle of maneuver once they finally managed to cross the fortified river lines of the Don and/or Volga
So, while it is possible that winter brings a huge German defeat, it's also entirely possible that the Germans manage to hold on and restore the front.
1. If Germany is to have any chance of reaching Astrahan and/or Baku, that means Fall Blau has to have gone far better - my suggestion would be that, in their august 29th attack, the Germans manage to trap the 64th and a large part of the 62nd Soviet armies just outside Stalingrad (instead of falling just short).
2. If Fall Blau has gone better, it means
- Stalingrad has been secured
- no grinding battle of attrition, preserving a lot of German strength
- Axis forces can now focus on consolidating their hold of the Don and Volga lines by eliminating all the leftover Soviet salients and bridgeheads
- lack of existing bridgeheads will seriously hamper any future Soviet counteroffensive come winter
3. With less intense fighting in the north, the Italian alpini divisions can be sent to where they excel, i.e. the mountains, instead of having to cover the steppes - this release German formations (which were inadequate for mountain warfare) for use up north
4. No street fighting in Stalingrad will also mean that the Germans will have a considerable strategic reserve for use during the winter. If used correctly, this force has a chance to stop the Soviets in a battle of maneuver once they finally managed to cross the fortified river lines of the Don and/or Volga
So, while it is possible that winter brings a huge German defeat, it's also entirely possible that the Germans manage to hold on and restore the front.