German Spring Offensive succeeds-how does President Wilson react?

[Riain]

Well that might happen after they recovered, and replenish. The BEF might have been replenished by troops from India and the colonies

The dominions were already fully committed to the Western front. The Indian Army was busy in the East, against the Ottoman Empire and in Africa and hadn't handled the Western front very well when there early in the war.

 

[Riain]

German homefront seems to be crumbling, the economy is in bad shape and others if my sources are right so some counter attack or full blown counteroffensive might be ordered by the entente

I think reparations from Russia were starting to come in, not fixing things but making things less bad. Capturing the allied logistics will also be a short term boon.

 

[kham_coc]

Without the Channel ports, I may guess?

And, with Germany in control of those ports, that means German subs can operate with impunity on both sides of the Dover barrage, pushing the supply lines, at best, to cherbourg, with subs, and port/rail capacity, probably further.
That means British merchant capacity is further reduced. It would take a long time just to create new logistical chains.

 

[ArtosStark]

Zabecki writes in his book that the forces sufficient enough to capture both Amiens and Hazebrouck were possessed by the Germans during Operations Michael and George, although not during the other operations of the Spring Offensive.

As he emphasises the fact home throughout his thesis, Michael and George were really both last chances for Ludendorff to cripple the BEF beyond repair and capture the Channel ports in order to drive the Anglophone Allies out of the European peninsula altogether. There really were no more contingency plans for the Westheer anymore.

I'm aware, he writes the same in his thesis. However, I question that assumption. I do very much agree that Michael and Georg were the Germans last shot, my doubt is in their viability to deliver what is promised.

However, if Amiens falls to an assault from Michael (which Zabecki specifies would need to go first) or even gets close enough to close it with Artillery fire, the immediate Allied priority will be retaking it. When it was threatened IOTL the first thing on both French and British Planners minds was keeping it safe, they will likely do the same with a more serious attack. Zabecki's thesis is that TTL's Michael would take around 30 divisions rather than the 50 of OTL which would allow for the full 40 divisions for Georg. However, they still could not be launched simultaneously, as the German logistics system could not cope with that. If the Allies put their reserves into the fight for Amiens and weaken the line in Flanders (which was overheavy at the time) I think they would be able to hold on to Hazebrouck.

Now it is certainly possible that if both are taken, the BEF will withdraw from France. That was certainly their plan. They may run into resistance from their political masters which would require them to reestablish a line further back. In either case, Foch was set on counterattacking with the Germans occupied with the British. It seems like he would do so ITTL.

 

[powerthirteen]

I'm aware, he writes the same in his thesis. However, I question that assumption. I do very much agree that Michael and Georg were the Germans last shot, my doubt is in their viability to deliver what is promised.

However, if Amiens falls to an assault from Michael (which Zabecki specifies would need to go first) or even gets close enough to close it with Artillery fire, the immediate Allied priority will be retaking it. When it was threatened IOTL the first thing on both French and British Planners minds was keeping it safe, they will likely do the same with a more serious attack. Zabecki's thesis is that TTL's Michael would take around 30 divisions rather than the 50 of OTL which would allow for the full 40 divisions for Georg. However, they still could not be launched simultaneously, as the German logistics system could not cope with that. If the Allies put their reserves into the fight for Amiens and weaken the line in Flanders (which was overheavy at the time) I think they would be able to hold on to Hazebrouck.

The majority of the BEF's defences in Flanders were disproportionately concentrated around Arras and Ypres: the railway junction/hub at Hazebrouck and the Channel ports were proportionately underdefended and thinly stretched compared to their relative importance for the BEF's continued activities in the Flanders.

Now it is certainly possible that if both are taken, the BEF will withdraw from France. That was certainly their plan. They may run into resistance from their political masters which would require them to reestablish a line further back. In either case, Foch was set on counterattacking with the Germans occupied with the British. It seems like he would do so ITTL.

The French attacking on their own initiative without any extensive British or American co-ordinated offensives in order to draw off and relieve the pressure on the attacking sectors of the front would have been a truly unprecedented step ahead in terms of the Western Front in general.

The question is, how would Ludendorff and the OHL react to such unfolding events at the frontlines?

 

[oofo]

I think reparations from Russia were starting to come in, not fixing things but making things less bad. Capturing the allied logistics will also be a short term boon.

The British would have to implement the Z-Scheme, and based on the information from here I think the Germans would have a field day with captured British supplies.
https://archive.org/stream/in.ernet...ation-On-The-Western-Front-1914-1918_djvu.txt
(Info starts on page 402)

In the scheme eventually drawn up the withdrawal was to be made in five stages, the first stage taking a fortnight and succeeding stages from two to five days each. The total time for all five stages had grown from “ not more than “ a fortnight ” to " not less than 28 days.” To facilitate the withdrawal of the fighting troops six through main roads were specified, one running from behind the front of each of four British Armies, one along the coast for the Belgian army, and one down the centre of the area for the civilian population.

There's a lot more on it, it covers the z-scheme in great detail, demolition plans, priority materials for evacuation, etc.

The Z-scheme was not ready until May, and also, as far as I can tell, assumed an unopposed withdrawal. Even with this the text seems to indicate that a huge amount of material would have had to be destroyed rather than evacuated. Most importantly though is the fact that the front line would be drastically shortened, which will play in the German's favor in the short term. The 17th, 6th, and 4th Armies will be free for deployment wherever the OHL wishes.

As for how Wilson would react, I'm not sure to be honest. I haven't found anything which shows how he reacted to the Spring Offensives OTL. I imagine that he'd be questioning his decision to join the war, but would remain adamant about continuing to fight.

 

[Catspoke]

Without the Channel ports, I may guess?

Its a big deal if the Germans can close the Seine above Paris at Rouen or wherever, in whatever Blucher attack they launch, to close off access to Le Harve.

Then its Cherbourg and the Atlantic ports for supply. Fortunately the Germans only have so many attack worthy divisions and so much supply. Which the Germans have to move out of the George attack area to the south. (it would be helpful to the Germans if they captured a bunch of supply in George).

It probably makes sense for the Austrians not to do the Piave offensive and send a few good divisions to the western front at this point. Follow success.

It also makes sense for the Germans to try and get the Dover Barrage cleaned up in a channel covered by coastal artillery to get their still numerous number of submarines freedom of movement, and focus on the French ports, instead of trade into Great Britain. Lots of everything has to be shipped into France since much of the French industrial are is captured.

This is where German diplomacy has to get smart with a peace offensive from a position of strength. Get the British on board first, If the British can pick up some colonial gains, increase the security of the Suez canal, restore France and Belgium to 1914 boundaries, maybe get a naval building holiday, the British can call it a victory, even if the Germans are in the Ukraine (the Ukraine is worth 100 times to Germany any crappy colony).

 

[Catspoke]

I think reparations from Russia were starting to come in, not fixing things but making things less bad. Capturing the allied logistics will also be a short term boon.

Kind of like WW2 the soldiers stationed there were getting fed from local resources, helping things, if not much was getting shipped back to the population. (Soldiers in the east were mailing parcels of food back to their families, sort of a reverse of what normally happens in war).

 

[Catspoke]

What shattered morale was the defeat of the spring offensives, if they are a smashing success, everyone's moral will hold up.
The question now is, do the Germans ask for peace?
Do the French collapse?
Do the germans try to push for Paris?

The Germans have only so many attack worthy divisions and so much supply, I don't think its worth assaulting a fortress. The French are bound to defend it hard.

Hold the east bank of the Seine north of Paris, try to roll up the front south and take Reims and Verdun, (sort of like OTL July 1918 last offensive).

Try to clean up the Channel ports captured as a submarine threat.

Try to get the French and Belgians out of the war with an easy peace. 1914 boundaries. (with the Ukraine under German management, Germany has won).

Germany is still very fragile, with shaky strategic supply, and shaky allies. 1919 is still going to be tough.

 

[Mikestone8]

As for how Wilson would react, I'm not sure to be honest. I haven't found anything which shows how he reacted to the Spring Offensives OTL.

According to Edward N Hurley [The Bridge to France, Ch XIV] he was very scared indeed

"Hurley," he said, "with the success of the Germans in driving a wedge between the well-seasoned troops of the British and the French in the Cambrai Sector, if by any chance they were to repeat their onslaught on our front and capture a hundred thousand or more of our soldiers, I dread to contemplate the feeling which would be produced in the minds of the American people. Unless we send over every man possible to support the Allies in their present desperate condition, a situation may develop , which would require us to pay the entire cost of the war to the Central Powers - - - Hurley, we must go to the limit."

The Germans have only so many attack worthy divisions and so much supply, I don't think its worth assaulting a fortress. The French are bound to defend it hard.

Do they have to assault it?

Its main importance is as France's biggest remaining industrial area, so if it can be bypassed and cut off from the rest of France, that is almost as good as capturing it. Keep in mind that the AEF was largely dependant on the French for arms and equipment, and with the BEF at least temporarily out of the game, the latter are effectively fighting the Germans single handed, and with much reduced resources. In that situation, would they have anything to spare for the doughboys? That is probably what Wilson had in mind when talking to Hurley.

 

[Geon]

The tricky part for Wilson would be if the Germans offered reasonable terms at this point, not getting his 14 points, not close.

If the Germans offer unreasonable terms, its pretty easy, the war continues until the Allies win. (probably this happens the Germans are not good at diplomacy)

If the Germans offered:
1914 boundaries in France, Belgium, Italy, Allies recognize status the quo in the east and the Balkans. Allies keep the colonies they have taken, including Palestine, Hejaz, and Southern Iraq. (Maybe Ottomans compensated with Libya or Italian Aegean islands, the Italians having to give these up to get Venetia back). This would just happen and nothing Wilson could do about it.

At this point I doubt France would refuse any kind of peace that did not involve her getting something to show for 4 years of war. Going back to the status quo would simply mean the fall of the government, possibly setting up a new more militant one that would be determined to carry on the conflict.

 

[marathag]

My question is what could Wilson do? In early 1918 the US was far from the power they were 6 months later, which was the whole point of the German offensive. Iiuc the US only had its first Army level battle in june or July and only got 3 armies into action by November. This is a long way from 5 British, 8(?) French and even more German field armies, and won't be a decider without allies.

Or Wilson Strokes out sooner, and does the puppetry of his Wife still work as well as OTL?

 

[Riain]

Its a big deal if the Germans can close the Seine above Paris at Rouen of wherever, in whatever Blucher attack they launch, to close off access to Le Harve.

Then its Cherbourg and the Atlantic ports for supply. Fortunately the Germans only have so many attack worthy divisions and so much supply. Which the Germans have to move out of the George attack area to the south. (it would be helpful to the Germans if they captured a bunch of supply in George).

It probably makes sense for the Austrians not to do the Piave offensive and send a few good divisions to the western front at this point. Follow success.

It also makes sense for the Germans to try and get the Dover Barrage cleaned up in a channel covered by coastal artillery to get their still numerous number of submarines freedom of movement, and focus on the French ports, instead of trade into Great Britain. Lots of everything has to be shipped into France since much of the French industrial are is captured.

This is where German diplomacy has to get smart with a peace offensive from a position of strength. Get the British on board first, If the British can pick up some colonial gains, increase the security of the Suez canal, restore France and Belgium to 1914 boundaries, maybe get a naval building holiday, the British can call it a victory, even if the Germans are in the Ukraine (the Ukraine is worth 100 times to Germany any crappy colony).

If the Germans capture the French Channel coast beyond Dieppe then it's almost game over for the British. German long range guns will bombard Kent, close Dover forcing the evacuation of the Dover Patrol, German light naval and air forces will make the Dover Narrows a battleground, severely disrupting through-channel coastal shipping and likely leading to the partial evacuation of London. All this while Paris is either captured or under threat.

The Atlantic ports will be the least of the Allies worries.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The destruction of the BEF east of the Somme River would have precluded such a measure.

Destruction of the 5 Armies of the BEF, with 2 plus Million men in France was beyond the abilities of the German Army in 1918

 

[cjc]

This is where German diplomacy has to get smart with a peace offensive from a position of strength. Get the British on board first, If the British can pick up some colonial gains, increase the security of the Suez canal, restore France and Belgium to 1914 boundaries, maybe get a naval building holiday, the British can call it a victory, even if the Germans are in the Ukraine (the Ukraine is worth 100 times to Germany any crappy colony).

Unfortunately if german Diplomacy had been smart sense Bismark was fired then they wouldn't have ww1 let alone fiting Britain France and America at the same time. Instead even without Britain and a much shorter line, then Wilson will gust whaite for spring 1919 when the us army has 5,000,000 men in France and then break the german army then. This is only a war winning move if America is out of the war, without them then there is no hope from the walies taking back taratory and will sue for pice, with America in the war then even if half the bef is in a prison camp then they can gust wate until the 800 pound garila is ready to smash.

 

[Catspoke]

At this point I doubt France would refuse any kind of peace that did not involve her getting something to show for 4 years of war. Going back to the status quo would simply mean the fall of the government, possibly setting up a new more militant one that would be determined to carry on the conflict.

Germany could let her keep Togo and Kamerun, but I don't know if that is enough to get France out. If France holds the front at some point, they may want to wait for American help, at which the Germans have to throw in Alsace-Lorraine (actually still worth it for Germany if Krivoi Rog iron ore in the Ukraine is under their control).

Part of a peace offensive is a morale part, where the average Frenchman says Alsace Lorraine isn't worth dyeing today, we can end this war now.

 

[Riain]

Destruction of the 5 Armies of the BEF, with 2 plus Million men in France was beyond the abilities of the German Army in 1918

True, but dismembering the BEF and forcing a chunk back to Britain possibly is.

That said I'm not a fan of late war PoDs for German victory, by then they got into a losing position with a bunch of events creating a structural barrier that is difficult to overcome.

 

[powerthirteen]

Destruction of the 5 Armies of the BEF, with 2 plus Million men in France was beyond the abilities of the German Army in 1918

Read Zabecki's thesis.

In it, he illustrates in detail how a German capture of both Amiens and Hazebrouck would have rapidly led to the collapse of the BEF east of the Somme River, mostly due to the total paralysis of their supply lines that would have resulted from such a decisive victory.

 

[Catspoke]

To isolate Paris, you can cut the northwest rail to LeHarve and Dieppe and the shipping along the Seine, and the South East rail to Melun, even if the French keep the communications to Dreux, it only takes a 50% siege to really impact supply in and out, especially to the armies along the front around Nancy. It would make sense for the French and whatever Americans and British can be gathered to concentrate here, and thin their lines in the South Eastern part of the front, to Hold Dieppe to Meaux in front of Paris for a 1919 counter offensive to work (giving up Nancy, Verdun, Toul, etc if need be.)

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Read Zabecki's thesis.

In it, he illustrates in detail how a German capture of both Amiens and Hazebrouck would have rapidly led to the collapse of the BEF east of the Somme River, mostly due to the total paralysis of their supply lines that would have resulted from such a decisive victory.

And then what?

The German army has just gutted itself doing it - what good is this (quite frankly implausible) victory if the Hundred days is instead launched by the French further to the south