I just put up a poll about a week ago, about 50% of the votes were for Germany to get at least some of its colonies back in a "status quo" end to the war. First, I think one must accept that London cannot be forced to accept anything but it certainly has certain vital points to gain in any peace that it will bargain. Second, Paris has little bargaining power but Britain will veto it giving away too much. Third, Germany has most of its vital interests on the continent but still has interests globally as well as "prestige" to consider. Combined I think the outcome depends of just how you believe the game of bluff and bluster is played.
Some of my assumptions are that without the USA a belligerent morale fails sooner, especially in France, who is still perfectly capable of mounting good defense but can no longer mount an offensive. The wars is just costlier to London and Paris, adding urgency to some armistice and end to hostilities. The USA is pushing its neutral rights stronger and the blockade is faltering, worse London must fear the USA will intervene against it (no matter if that is wholly irrational). And Germany has avoided the blatant mistakes that truly dragged defeat out of the jaws of "victory".
Russia has "peaced" out sooner, so less gains in the East but slightly more secure, likely just Poland, Lithuania, Livonia and Courland. Finland is tumbling out of Russian control, Ukraine may still be rebellious against whatever government is in Petrograd with Austrian/Germany support but little to no boots on that ground. London is simply trying to keep Russia from collapsing into civil war as that blows the loans outstanding and threatens to fully unstop the Germans. Italy has been forced to peace out too. So it gets nothing from either side. Romania settles with Germany and falls into its orbit. Germany keeps Luxembourg. A-H is just happy to survive.
My opinion is that London must have Belgium restored to full independence. And it must at least get Germany off the French Channel coast, preferably back behind its own borders. To that end "spending" German colonial dirt is a cheaper way to buy back those losses. The danger is that Germany uses them to mount a guerre de course campaign, so it is reluctant to hand back colonies with good defensible ports. It is reluctant to undo its gifts to SA and Australia but frankly at the big table the Dominions are not that important with the stakes above their pay. France will give anything to get back its territory. Belgium simply is a pawn.
I think both London and Paris will resist German territorial gains in the East, at minimum demanding an independent Poland, at worst leaving it under an Austrian crown but still independent. I think they gave no real weight to the Baltic states. I think Britain tries hard to keep Romania from becoming a German puppet, France tries to shield Greece, no one cares about Serbia.
My opinion is that Germany must have the blockade lifted, and as importantly it needs confidence that it will be able to trade once more. Germany was nearly as dependent upon foreign trade as Britain, that trade equal to 1/3 is GDP by value, and many critical (and still unattainable from Europe) commodities must be sourced overseas (largely in areas controlled by the British or French). Germany does not need any territory in the West and adjusting its borders to the East is even less desirable, but it must have secure borders with access to those economies. Its colonies can be used to give prestige to the peace deal but likely are not actually pushed for, instead they become the shiny objects to hide the sausage making. If Germany has any smarts it realizes that trade with Russia is far more important and not something the Entente can really control so it has already bartered a deal with Russia and longer term has gotten much of what it needs penciled in.
So that likely means that Togo and Southwest Africa are offered up. Samoa is easy enough. Guinea is harder, East Africa is weird because nominally Germany is still contesting it, but with some assurances both can be handed back. For example London might demand trackage rights over an East African rail line connecting the Cape to Cairo route. And I think London demands some naval concessions, likely a permanent reduction of the German dreadnought fleet to a secondary status, up to 50% if possible, no fortifications, and seeks the reduction in both cruisers and submarines (really to eliminate the latter), etc. I think London presses Japan to surrender the pacific atolls but wrings its hands over the concessions in China. If the USA is brokering a deal, those go back to China. That does give you a salvaged AJA but strained Anglo-Japanese relations longer term. London must be concerned about its position in China and bothered by Japanese ambitions so throwing Germany into the mix as its enemy is useful politics, especially as we know it has no real teeth left in the Far East.
To avoid any indemnity for damages to Belgium, Berlin drops its claim upon the Congo, but likely gets some assurances that it can access it, maybe promising to build better rail links to the eastern areas from East Africa. Germany might, and I really do mean might, get some piece of the French Congo, or Chad or CAR if Paris is just totally desperate and London is at wits end. An even longer shot is getting Walvis Bay surrendered. And frankly that is about as far as I can roll sixes for the Germans. No Mittelafrika, no vast East European Empire, no Ukraine, not even Poland, maybe, the Baltics become the vague Duchy under a German aristocrat and bound to Berlin.
Of course that rests upon the OHL failing and being returned to its subordinate position under the Reichstag, Chancellor and Kaiser, a thing that certainly should occur for it has lots of influence but institutionally the federal structure, its elected government and limited monarchy are the political arbiters. The SPD is still likely to finally gain recognition of its power, in coalition with the left leaning Liberals and Zentrum it will truly moderate the peace, SPD proved loyal and likely still has to quash the revolutionaries with the Right and Army so earns its place as part of the system. The Kaiser has lost a lot of influence but is still the figure head and glue that bonds the Empire together if only in official loyalties. So I truly think the grand schemes evaporate, if Germany can get "peace with honor" and the promises that things get back to "normal", it leaves a lot on the table.
With or without any colonies Germany must quickly restore its own civil economy and build trade links into East Europe, establish trade with Russia, and likely find alternatives to French or British supplies, the only place left is South America and the USA for "free" trade. With its colonies Germany has another generation of investment to hopefully extract the resources it requires, a net drain, and frankly investment into Europe is going to be about the same struggle. But Germany does gain a larger Mark-zone, it can work on a customs union that favors the flow of goods both direction to its profit, and has at least some better security. And that is the best I can do to get as close to an antebellum outcome and "maximum" German gains. It leave a lot of broken glass to step on and leaves a lot of hurt feelings to fester over time. So it has much of the dysfunction our time got. That was how I played the cards.