Future timeline ideas and planning

Opening Post
Greetings, fellow Alternate Historians. For the past three and a half years, I’ve been working on the moderately successful timeline of English Canada/French Carolina. With a POD in the Anglo-French War of 1627-1629, I have gone through over 300 years in the timeline. I have now reached the 1970s, which means that the end of the timeline is near, likely sometime in 2022. With the end of my current TL coming so soon, that begs the question of what I am going to do next. I’ve thought about doing a few different TL’s. One of them was a timeline where Christopher Columbus either never sails the ocean blue in fourteen hundred and ninety two or never returns from said voyage. However, I’ve decided that the No Columbus TL would be a bit too daunting, so I’ve narrowed it down to the other two.
First, a timeline where the Pilgrims and Puritans never decide to migrate to OTL’s New England, meaning that the colonies that formed OTL’s American North never come into existence. This obviously has huge consequences on the future of not only North America, but the entire world. New England (specifically Massachusetts) was the cradle of the American Revolution, which likely would never occur if it were just the Southern Colonies. The American Revolution’s success was one of the major factors contributing to the French Revolution, whose removal would change European and more broadly global politics in ways we can’t even describe. Having a smaller empire in North America might mean that England (and later Britain, assuming the Act of Union still happens) takes a more Asia-focused strategy, changing not only Asia (British Indonesia, anyone?), but also Africa (earlier British Cape Colony, anyone?). Similarly, the Dutch might focus more on the New World instead of Asia if they’re beat to the Cape and still have the New Netherlands (although the Dutch did briefly conquer Portuguese Angola), possibly having more of South America and The Caribbean (the Dutch also briefly conquered Northern Brazil). Really, this is just scratching the surface of what could occur in a Pilgrims-less world, so I’ll leave more of that to further discussion.
Now, the other timeline. I am of majority Scandinavian ancestry (not much of a surprise if you know that I’m from Minnesota). Thus, one of the timelines I’ve thought of is a timeline where the Kalmar Union survives. In OTL, the Kalmar Union (named for the town in which it was declared) lasted from 1397 to 1523, when Sweden officially became independent of the union. However, what if this union survived? This timeline would give the lion’s share of its focus to the Nordic Empire, from its internal development to expansion around the Baltic and North Seas and finally the sizable colonial empire it’d acquire (think The Netherlands or Portugal in terms of scope), mainly in North America (expect a Scandinavian Canada). However, other regions would also garner attention, especially as the butterflies begin to affect other parts of Europe and then the world at large.
I’d like to see input and discussion on both of these scenarios, as I figure out which one to pursue further in the future. I’ve got the basic ideas I listed laid out, but fleshing them out more with you guys would be helpful. Oh, and I’d like to announce that EC/FC will be continued as a Maps & Graphics TL after it has reached the present day.
Sincerely, Gabingston.
 
Oh, fun fact. One of the original possible destinations for the Pilgrims IOTL was Guiana near Essequibo, so maybe that's what happens if you decide to go with the "No Pilgrims" TL idea.
 
Oh, fun fact. One of the original possible destinations for the Pilgrims IOTL was Guiana near Essequibo, so maybe that's what happens if you decide to go with the "No Pilgrims" TL idea.
I was planning on having the Pilgrims stay in the Netherlands for a few more years before settling in the New Netherlands colony, but having them settle in Guiana doesn't sound like a bad idea for a POD, especially considering that the colony would in all likelihood fail due to the tropics being unhealthy for Europeans in the era before modern medicine.
 
Concept Maps
Here are some early concept maps for what the east coast of North America would look like in the two TL's. I'm guessing the timeframe would be around 1700-1750.
No Pilgrims Concept Map.gif

This is the concept map for the No Pilgrims TL. OTL's New England is split between the French and Dutch along the Thames River and its tributaries (most notably the Quinebaug River). The Dutch control the Connecticut River valley, while the French control Lake Champlain. The border between the New Netherlands and English America (presumably named either Virginia or Carolana) is drawn along the Susquehanna River up to the 40th parallel north, where it goes due west to the Appalachians. Spain controls Florida as IOTL. I'm guessing the French still create trading posts in the Midwest and settle the mouth of the Mississippi as IOTL, but that's getting too far ahead.
Nordic America Concept Map.gif

This is a bit less fleshed-out than the last map, as this just shows the territory of the Scandinavians in mainland North America. The Nords have established full control of Newfoundland (and thus the extremely rich fishing grounds of the Grand Banks), OTL's Canadian Maritimes, Northern New England and, most importantly, the Saint Lawrence River Valley. I'm assuming the English still conquer the New Netherlands colony and colonize the Eastern Seaboard down to Georgia. I'm not sure who founds TTL's New Orleans equivalent, as the French settled it by traveling down the Mississippi north to south, not from sailing up from the mouth of the Mississippi. Maybe Scandinavia founds New Orleans (or New Copenhagen, I guess), although I have a hard time seeing the Nords wanting to settle in the near-tropical climate of Louisiana. As for where France colonizes ITTL, well, that's anyone's guess.
 
I could actually see Scandinavia/Kalmar being less "Dutch to Portugal" and more "portugal to france."

They have the population (well, Denmark and Sweden would) and the resources. Hell, for most of the colonial period Germany isnt a threat, and if Sweden and Denmark arent trying to kill each other, Russia shouldn't be that hard. That leaves England. Oh, hello france. Obviously these would all fluctuate but these are the trends I'm seeing.

although I have a hard time seeing the Nords wanting to settle in the near-tropical climate of Louisiana. As for where France colonizes ITTL, well, that's anyone's guess.
Oh they wouldn't want to at first. But once they realize how big a prize the Caribbean and sugar plantations are at the time, they'll be lunging.
 
I could actually see Scandinavia/Kalmar being less "Dutch to Portugal" and more "portugal to france."

They have the population (well, Denmark and Sweden would) and the resources. Hell, for most of the colonial period Germany isnt a threat, and if Sweden and Denmark arent trying to kill each other, Russia shouldn't be that hard. That leaves England. Oh, hello france. Obviously these would all fluctuate but these are the trends I'm seeing.


Oh they wouldn't want to at first. But once they realize how big a prize the Caribbean and sugar plantations are at the time, they'll be lunging.
I think Scandinavia at the time had a population of 2-3 million, which was higher than that of the Netherlands and Portugal, but much lower than England at 4 million, Spain at 8 million and France at over 15 million. While the Scandinavians will definitely have one of the strongest navies, possibly even rivaling the Royal Navy, they'll have to split their naval focus between the Atlantic and Baltic. Similarly, the Scandinavian Army will be off fighting in the HRE and Russia a lot of the time, and while they should be able to handle Russia in the 1600s, by the 1700s Russia will have caught up enough to where they'll be able to beat the Scandinavians through sheer manpower. There'd definitely be a lot of ups and downs for the Scandinavians in Europe.
As for tropical colonies, I'm expecting them to have all of OTL's Danish and Swedish colonies in the Caribbean and on the African coast.
 
I think Scandinavia at the time had a population of 2-3 million, which was higher than that of the Netherlands and Portugal, but much lower than England at 4 million, Spain at 8 million and France at over 15 million. While the Scandinavians will definitely have one of the strongest navies, possibly even rivaling the Royal Navy, they'll have to split their naval focus between the Atlantic and Baltic. Similarly, the Scandinavian Army will be off fighting in the HRE and Russia a lot of the time, and while they should be able to handle Russia in the 1600s, by the 1700s Russia will have caught up enough to where they'll be able to beat the Scandinavians through sheer manpower. There'd definitely be a lot of ups and downs for the Scandinavians in Europe.
As for tropical colonies, I'm expecting them to have all of OTL's Danish and Swedish colonies in the Caribbean and on the African coast.
A sufficient Scandinavian-Polish alliance should keep russia on the backburner, especially since you'll likely be messing with successions
 
I think Scandinavia at the time had a population of 2-3 million, which was higher than that of the Netherlands and Portugal, but much lower than England at 4 million, Spain at 8 million and France at over 15 million. While the Scandinavians will definitely have one of the strongest navies, possibly even rivaling the Royal Navy, they'll have to split their naval focus between the Atlantic and Baltic. Similarly, the Scandinavian Army will be off fighting in the HRE and Russia a lot of the time, and while they should be able to handle Russia in the 1600s, by the 1700s Russia will have caught up enough to where they'll be able to beat the Scandinavians through sheer manpower. There'd definitely be a lot of ups and downs for the Scandinavians in Europe.
As for tropical colonies, I'm expecting them to have all of OTL's Danish and Swedish colonies in the Caribbean and on the African coast.
What about OTL New Sweden? With a bigger Navy expect them to hold on for a lot longer.
 
A sufficient Scandinavian-Polish alliance should keep Russia on the backburner, especially since you'll likely be messing with successions
That's a possibility, but I imagine that the Nords and Poles would have competing interests in the Baltics and Pomerania.
What about OTL New Sweden? With a bigger Navy expect them to hold on for a lot longer.
That's a definite possibility, and could form the southernmost part of Nordic America, but I was imagining the core of Nordic America being in OTL's Canada. Still, this is something I'll have to consider.
 
That's a possibility, but I imagine that the Nords and Poles would have competing interests in the Baltics and Pomerania.
true, i just meant in regard to Russia. i think that scandinavia's best long term ally would be the ottomans and the French, slotting them into a winning alliance otl. others would be of convenience when russia, Poland, or other powers, got fiesty
 
Kalmar Union TL Ideas
So, I'm thinking more about the Kalmar Union TL now, and I’m going to pose a few quick questions for the TL, and share some of my ideas and hypotheses for how the Nordic Empire would develop.
First, what would be the best POD to keep the Kalmar Union together? From my very small amount of research, the main problem with keeping the union together was the restlessness of the Swedish third of the union. There were constant rebellions and uprisings within Sweden, culminating with Gustav Vasa’s successful revolt in 1523. Looking at the very end of the Kalmar Union, one way I think that the union could’ve survived is if, after conquering Sweden from its regent, Christian II doesn’t have much of the rival Swedish nobility executed in the Stockholm Bloodbath, but attempts to reconcile with the Swedes and find a middle ground upon which to secure the future of the union. Admittedly that might be too late to save the union, so if you’re familiar with an earlier POD for a surviving Kalmar Union, feel free to let me know.
Second, I want to know if the Kalmar Union would go Protestant. The Reformation started in 1517, so that’s before the 1520 POD I laid out in the previous paragraph. All of the Nordic countries IOTL went Protestant, so I’m assuming that’d still be the case here. On the other hand, the fantastic timeline To Be a Fox and a Lion, which is also about a surviving Kalmar Union, has the union stay Catholic, albeit with a lot of changes to the church structure within the union (basically Anglicanism with the Pope, as it was put by a commenter in the TL). I might just take the lazy route and have the union go Lutheran as IOTL, but I would like suggestions.
Third, what countries would be Scandinavia’s main allies and main rivals? Scandinavia’s main geopolitical interests in Europe would be around the Baltic Sea (so northern Germany and the Baltic states). This would make the probable Scandinavian rivals the PLC and (especially) Russia. I’d thought that Austria would’ve been a rival, but it turns out that Christian II was married to Isabella of Austria, who was a Habsburg, so dynastic ties would probably keep them from being rivals (and would possibly keep the Kalmar Union Catholic, since the Habsburgs were staunch Catholics). France, Britain and The Ottomans could be allies or enemies depending on how things play out.
Speaking of dynastic politics, the royal lineages (and thus politics) of Europe would change if Christian II remained on the throne instead of being removed by a noble revolt in 1523 in favor of his uncle Frederick. However, I’m assuming that Christian II would remain on the throne if he played his cards right and didn’t piss off the nobility. However, what happens after Christian II dies is uncertain. IOTL, he had six children, two of whom survived to adulthood.
The thing is, both of them were women.
Now, there was one female monarch during the Kalmar Union (Margaret), and the current monarch of Denmark is a woman (also Margaret), but there was no female monarch in Denmark between the two. While there wasn’t any official law against women inheriting the throne like there was in France (or at least I’m assuming there wasn’t), it’s clear that men were favored in the line of succession. Of the two surviving daughters Christian II had, only one of them had any surviving children (one of whom became the duchess of Lorraine). He did have a son, John, who died in Regensburg when he was 14. I could play around with butterflies and keep him alive into adulthood, or I could keep it as OTL and pass the throne onto Christian’s closest male relative.
Finally, and most of interest to me, is the colonial empire. Spoiler alert, my plan is to have the Kalmar Union start colonizing the area around the Gulf of Saint Lawrence in the Late 16th Century, probably starting in Newfoundland (I’ve even found a location for the first settlement), and locking down what is in our the Canadian Maritimes and the Saint Lawrence River Valley. From there, they would expand into the Great Lakes and possibly into the Mississippi River Valley, as well as getting involved in the fur trade via a Nordic Hudson Bay Company (there was a Danish expedition to the Hudson Bay IOTL). The Kalmar Union would also have colonies in The Caribbean to coastal Africa to Asia and maybe even Australasia. The main challenge for a Nordic Colonial Empire based out of Eastern Canada would be to beat the French to the region, but I think that’s plausible if the Norse are able to settle earlier than the French (which is why I’m planning on having them start their colonies in the Late 16th rather than the Early 17th century) and getting more people to settle in their colonies, which considering the very small number of Frenchmen who went to settle in New France IOTL, the constant population pressure in Iceland (which could only support about 50,000 people at the time) and OTL’s Norwegian migration to The Netherlands, I think that’s highly plausible. I could easily see 100-200 thousand Scandinavians immigrating to the colonies from the foundation of the colonies to 1800, as well as a good number of Germans (100,000 Germans emigrated to the Americas during the colonial era according to Wikipedia), compared to only 10,000 or so French settlers in OTL's Canada. This would produce a population in the tens of millions today, probably larger than Scandinavia itself, and that’s not even factoring in immigration after 1800. Nordic Canada could have a significantly larger population than OTL’s Canada, maybe as high as 100 million (although Nordic Canada may also include parts of the U.S., like the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest). This would change the politics of North America immensely, and would have global implications later on as well. However, that’ll be something for another day. Leave your thoughts and suggestions, and have a Merry Christmas!
 
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First, what would be the best POD to keep the Kalmar Union together?
The reason Sweden was in constant revolt was partly due to some deep-seated structural issues with the union. Swedish nobility wanted a weak king who’d leave them alone, Swedish peasantry wanted their rights and liberties protected, Danish nobility needed a stronger monarch who’d help them keep a tighter leash on their peasants, eventually leading to serfdom in Denmark. The earlier the PoD the more time to change these things, maybe prevent the rise of serfdom in Denmark (best done by a pre-union PoD), or have the Swedes need a stronger King.

Alternatively, TL’s like Milites do show a believable way the union could survive with a late PoD, you could do that if you don’t want too much to change. In a TL where the main focus isn’t on Scandinavia I think your idea of C2 simply being more negotiable is fine for an off-hand reason, though future unrest in Sweden should probably be mentioned

Second, I want to know if the Kalmar Union would go Protestant.
Sweden and Denmark became Protestant for very different reasons and in very different ways. Denmark had a devoutly Lutheran king (Christian 3) and a split population/nobility, while Sweden had a population that largely remained Catholic and a king that forcibly converted his country for political gain. I think some kind of Protestantism is very likely in Scandinavia, as it became dominant in pretty much all of Northern Europe iotl. Again though, Milites shows a believable alternative.

Third, what countries would be Scandinavia’s main allies and main rivals?
If the other powers of Europe remain unchanged: Poland, Russia and Prussia will be rivals in the Baltic Sea, but might be temporary allies against common enemies. In the colonial game Britain and the Netherlands might be, but Scandinavia probably has to remain in good standing with at least one of them to have a colonial chance - Britain most likely I think

I’d thought that Austria would’ve been a rival, but it turns out that Christian II was married to Isabella of Austria, who was a Habsburg, so dynastic ties would probably keep them from being rivals
If it can be maintained yes, though Polish-Habsburg dynastic ties were pretty strong and look how that went. If they start showing interest in northern Germany though, like Austria did during the 30yw in otl that’s a natural rivalry

France, Britain and The Ottomans could be allies or enemies depending on how things play out.
Much like they were with otl Sweden and Denmark.

While there wasn’t any official law against women inheriting the throne like there was in France (or at least I’m assuming there wasn’t), it’s clear that men were favored in the line of succession.
Theres actually no female succession in Scandinavia pre-Gustav Vasa where Sweden got it. Margaret I was never officially Queen regnant, a point of contention with her own nobility. Males could inherit through women though, so a son of one of C2’s daughters could become King, or the succession laws could be changed as the central administration becomes stronger

Finally, and most of interest to me, is the colonial empire.
Not much to add on the colonial aspect, except that I don’t think any large settler colonies are likely by Scandinavia simply due to population density. Smaller ones like parts of Canada might be possible though, I also think Scandinavian colonies could be attractive for other Protestants (if Scandinavia goes Protestant) from Germany, France and Poland. “Ethnic” Scandinavians might become minorities in their own colonies in favor of Germans.
 
The reason Sweden was in constant revolt was partly due to some deep-seated structural issues with the union. Swedish nobility wanted a weak king who’d leave them alone, Swedish peasantry wanted their rights and liberties protected, Danish nobility needed a stronger monarch who’d help them keep a tighter leash on their peasants, eventually leading to serfdom in Denmark. The earlier the PoD the more time to change these things, maybe prevent the rise of serfdom in Denmark (best done by a pre-union PoD), or have the Swedes need a stronger King.

Alternatively, TL’s like Milites do show a believable way the union could survive with a late PoD, you could do that if you don’t want too much to change. In a TL where the main focus isn’t on Scandinavia I think your idea of C2 simply being more negotiable is fine for an off-hand reason, though future unrest in Sweden should probably be mentioned


Sweden and Denmark became Protestant for very different reasons and in very different ways. Denmark had a devoutly Lutheran king (Christian 3) and a split population/nobility, while Sweden had a population that largely remained Catholic and a king that forcibly converted his country for political gain. I think some kind of Protestantism is very likely in Scandinavia, as it became dominant in pretty much all of Northern Europe iotl. Again though, Milites shows a believable alternative.


If the other powers of Europe remain unchanged: Poland, Russia and Prussia will be rivals in the Baltic Sea, but might be temporary allies against common enemies. In the colonial game Britain and the Netherlands might be, but Scandinavia probably has to remain in good standing with at least one of them to have a colonial chance - Britain most likely I think


If it can be maintained yes, though Polish-Habsburg dynastic ties were pretty strong and look how that went. If they start showing interest in northern Germany though, like Austria did during the 30yw in otl that’s a natural rivalry


Much like they were with otl Sweden and Denmark.


Theres actually no female succession in Scandinavia pre-Gustav Vasa where Sweden got it. Margaret I was never officially Queen regnant, a point of contention with her own nobility. Males could inherit through women though, so a son of one of C2’s daughters could become King, or the succession laws could be changed as the central administration becomes stronger


Not much to add on the colonial aspect, except that I don’t think any large settler colonies are likely by Scandinavia simply due to population density. Smaller ones like parts of Canada might be possible though, I also think Scandinavian colonies could be attractive for other Protestants (if Scandinavia goes Protestant) from Germany, France and Poland. “Ethnic” Scandinavians might become minorities in their own colonies in favor of Germans.
Thanks for the feedback! I'm admittedly not super knowledgeable on Scandinavian history, so I want to learn more about the region before I start the TL.
 
I've developed a rough chronology for the TL. I'll keep working on it (with your suggestions being very welcome), but here's the outline so far:
  • 1520: Christian II of Denmark puts down the Swedish Rebellion, but instead of purging the Swedish Nobility in the Stockholm Bloodbath, he reconciles with the Swedish nobles and finds a middle ground.
  • 1520s: Drafting of agreement between Christian II and Nordic (especially Swedish) Nobility dictating relationship between the crown and the constituent countries of Denmark, Norway and Sweden, serves as foundation for future evolution of the union.
  • Mid 16th Century: Conversion of the Kalmar Union to Protestantism.
  • ~1560: Christian II dies, succeeded by his son John (who survives ITTL).
  • 1570s-80s: First colonies in the New World founded around the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
  • 1580s-90s: John dies, replaced by whoever his heir is.
  • Early-Mid 17th Century: Solidification of control over Gulf of St. Lawrence.
  • Mid 17th Century: Zenith of Nordic Empire in Europe.
  • Late 18th-Early 19th Century: Formal integration of Denmark, Norway and Sweden into one country.
 
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