France accepts Phan Thanh Gian's deal?

[wolf_brother]

IOTL after the Cochinchina Campaign, Phan Thanh Gian, the Vietnamese diplomat and statesmen who had represented Vietnam during the talks leading up to the 1862 Treaty of Saigon, went on a diplomatic mission to Paris. There he negotiated a deal with Napoléon III under which France would return the captured southern territories to Vietnam in return for a war indemity equal to 1,300,000 ounces of silver (in context, the Saigon Treaty already had seen Vietnam pay France some 288,000 ounces of silver). As well French troops were to be garrisoned in Saigon, My Thau and Thủ Dầu Một, and Vietnam was officially to recognize French suzerainty (in addition, and equal, to that of China's).

Phan Thanh Gian had the full backing of his Emperor Tự Đức; however the deal fell apart in Paris when France's Naval Minister, Prosper de Chasseloup-Laubat, an ardent pro-colonizer and prominent conservative politician, threatened to resign, bringing down the entire cabinet with him just as the French Emperor was beginning to experiment with a Westminster-style of parliamentarism.

Ultimately Napoléon III back-tracked on his deal with Phan Thanh Gian, and the rest is history. However what if he hadn't? What would be the immediate effects on France? On Vietnam? What long-term butterflies would we see not only in those two countries, but also in China, and in colonialism in general?

Discuss.

 

[iori]

To be blunt/honest France would have likely just colonized and created protectorates as they did OTL, just a little later.
France had a long and vested interest in the region, so by that point simply letting it be, even if under partial Suzerainty simply won't be enough/acceptable after a few years.

 

[The Ubbergeek]

Or another power. Like Britain - they are invested into Thailand.

 

[wolf_brother]

To be blunt/honest France would have likely just colonized and created protectorates as they did OTL, just a little later.
France had a long and vested interest in the region, so by that point simply letting it be, even if under partial Suzerainty simply won't be enough/acceptable after a few years.

Or another power. Like Britain - they are invested into Thailand.

Spain had a 'long and vested interest' in Vietnam as well, but they never colonized the region. I truly don't understand the hard-core determinist attitude so many people in this community have when it comes to certain areas and colonialism.

Even if though France does subdue Vietnam at a later date, for reasons unknown, this change would still have significant impact, at least IMHO. Off the top of my head, a France where Napoléon III maintains absolutist rule for longer won't have the same issues that IOTL plagued France in the 1860s. Likewise a Vietnam that regains control of its southern provinces at the cost of French suzerainty might turn on China during one of that state's many 19th century rebellions, such as the Taiping, Nien, or Miao. Hell at the very least the ITTL analogue to the Haw War likely takes place in southern China instead of Southeast Asia, which will have a significant impact.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I would think there be a likelihood in the interim for France to get distracted elsewhere. Also, what effect would the lack of Saigon have in French participation in wars against China, which IIRC is more or less contemporaneous or about to erupt?

Would Napoleon look like he's given in, or would the comparison be null because it is being made between OTL and his actions here, whereas people watching will be comparing treaty and treaty?

Would it in any way increase his commitment to Mexico? No garrisons to maintain, more money in the bank...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[wolf_brother]

I would think there be a likelihood in the interim for France to get distracted elsewhere. Also, what effect would the lack of Saigon have in French participation in wars against China, which IIRC is more or less contemporaneous or about to erupt?

Would Napoleon look like he's given in, or would the comparison be null because it is being made between OTL and his actions here, whereas people watching will be comparing treaty and treaty?

Would it in any way increase his commitment to Mexico? No garrisons to maintain, more money in the bank...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Well, Phan Thanh Gian's mission took place in 1863, so France has already led the invasion of Mexico with their British and Spanish allies. Historically the French attempted to conquer Vietnam again in 1873 but was defeated by the Black Flag army; however both the motivations for conquest and the Black Flags won't exist ITTL, so the likelihood is very high IMHO. We might see France take a more active role in the Boshin War, or launch a larger campaign in Korea, or something else altogether outside of East Asia.

I wouldn't say France doesn't have Saigon, as the agreement hashed out between Phan Thanh Gian and Napoléon III allowed for French troops to be garrisoned in Saigon, as well as two other cities in the southern provinces. Instead of out-right control the situation might be more analogous to British treaty ports in China.

As for French politics Napoléon III would be forced to abandon the parliamentarian experiment, at least for now. He'd lose what support he did have with conservatives, and liberals would still be against him from 1848. This is going to largely deprive him of all support he had, just as he's getting weaker and older. Luckily for both him and the empire he had an able administrator in Eugénie. On the other hand though she isn't Wonder Woman, and the Second Empire will probably come unhinged. Hell, the moderate and monarchist liberals might even support Henri, Count of Chambord's bid for power in return for explicit promises that the throne will pass to Prince Philippe, Count of Paris after Henri's passing.

 

[iori]

Spain had a 'long and vested interest' in Vietnam as well, but they never colonized the region. I truly don't understand the hard-core determinist attitude so many people in this community have when it comes to certain areas and colonialism.

By the time were talking Spain was fighting just to keep what it had left together and unrest in the metropole itself, so it's not like they could even if they'd wanted to, and that's not to mention Britain and France may not exactly look very well on them doing so.

As to determinsim, well nothing is predetermined, but the close you get o an event the higher the likelyhood that it will happen, and by the 1850's-1860's France was determined to expand, as it came to see itself slipping into second-tier status.

Even if though France does subdue Vietnam at a later date, for reasons unknown, this change would still have significant impact, at least IMHO.

Upon which I agree, while I'm of the belief by that point France would still seek to colonize Indochina in one way or another, I certainly don't think later colonization would lead to exactly the same situation/results/events of OTL.