Remember that Japan in this TL is contained by the fact that the oil market has collapsed as a result of Long's actions (I guess I'll have to re-read that part to understand how the hell one thing led to the other). The result of this is that Japan is even more screwed than in OTL for fuel, and without fuel they cannot carry out ambitious amphibious operations...
For the Republic: A History of the Second American Civil War
- Thread starter The Angry Observer
- Start date
They did import from America, but also heavily from the UK and the Netherlands - both of which are going to be hungrier than ever for exports at this point. We haven't seen a Mexico update, but they're in play. And in terms of what current Japanese targets are at this point - Manchuria and north China - you don't need vast quantities of fuel oil as you would for naval operations in the Pacific. All of those can be handled on land. For the most part, Japanese strategy in the 1920s-early 1930s was focused primarily on monopolizing power in China and confronting the USSR. You don't get the full southern direction until the Second Sino-Japanese War kicked off the oil embargo and the Soviets defeated the IJA at Khalkhin Gol. At that point, with a northern direction out of the question and fuel supplies looking dicey, then you get the spiral towards a southern war against the Western powers. It's scope creep from their actual interests in China, which in the conditions of this TL they have the means and the motives to pursue.
Ah yes, the kind of people who rationalize their actions under the term "For the greater good". More of an excuse just to stroke egos and ruin the lives of those perceived as lesser.
Japan is also contained by the fact that China is more or less reunified except for the two Japanese puppet states. The warlords have all either been beaten or have joined the Nationalist government, Mao is dead, and the bulk of the CCP's officer corps has been reintegrated into the Nationalist military. China, while very much weak navally, is able to launch land-based expeditions much more easily, meaning that any Japanese aggression on mainland Asia will be met with a large Chinese response. The naval and air supremacy that Japan enjoys protects it to an extent, but the situation has simply spiraled beyond their control without China being divided upon itself.
Japan's present goal is to shore up its control of Manchuria and Inner Mongolia and recover reliable sources of oil and steel, and beyond that, seek out potential allies.
We've talked about this and have decided to do a retcon of some kind for the French one. Don't have a ton of details right now, but sometime in the next couple of weeks I'll type up an update. Thanks everyone for patience and feedback 👍
Can't wait to see the France Rework, though some broad strokes would be nice.
The main (but not only) thing that will be changed is the German intervention. We really like the idea of the 2ACW butterflying in a bunch of chaos into that country.
Clement Vallandigham, Alexander Long, and the other Copperheads very sincerely believed that the best way to restore the Union was an immediate ceasefire, followed by a constitutional convention to protect the south’s interests (slavery). They believed this as the bloodiest battles in American history were being fought, and as the south made no secret of the fact that they were leaving unconditionally.
People believe these kind of things. Especially when they already have motivation to do so, like opposing the Catholic/Soviet agent that stole the White House. There was even opposition to World War Two after it began.
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Probably the biggest mistake I’ve made so far is overestimating Germany’s strength in 1933-1935 versus 1935-1938. There’s really not much else that can be said, doing so is giving me the opportunity to learn some truly interesting stuff about Europe during this time period and the different variables that can change.
Hitler actually did get so unfathomably lucky.
Yeah we’ve gotta go back to the south too and explain what the situation is down there, because that’s really important. I’ve only made passing references to the oil market, so I need to explain that in more depth.
I’ve also been sorta lampshading with Japan, which is my fault. The most dramatic parts of Japan’s landward expansion haven’t even begun yet when Smith is deposed, so the ITL “view” isn’t that the Empire’s linear progression is disrupted.
Honestly has me curious if they are in talks with Great Britain in reviving the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. Something the Stanley Baldwin Administration must be VERY keen on in the wake of America's political and economic implosion and Germany's sudden resurgence as a continental power.
And Nazi Germany and the KMT did cooperate on stuff before the Nazis aligned with Japan IOTL.
Alongside the fact that Japan's conquest and war crimes have mostly been averted thanks to the collapse of the American market.
So all in all, a revived Anglo-Japanese alliance seems quite likely. Especially since Japan has an impressive navy of its own, that can make a hypothetical war in the Mediterranean seem less like a war theatre and more like two school kids bullying a smaller kid
The issue here is that Japan is still pursuing an anti-imperialist, anti-European agenda under the auspices of the proposed Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere. The southern Pacific, which is essentially a Franco-British fief, remains a target for Japan, as does the “prize” of the Dutch East Indies.
Angry and I have been having a back-and-forth on where Japan goes from here, and I’ll just say that certain grand moves, while significantly delayed, are not out of the question.
The most plausible excuse for getting the Dutch East Indies is if National Socialist obtain leadership in the Netherlands, whether through election or coup d'etat. With the promise of partitioning Belgium and it's colonies with Northern France.
Well, let's be real here, if Japan had better fortunes for them if they renew Anglo-Japanese Treaty, they will shove all their "anti-imperialist" aside. Japan is pragmatic above all else.
@GaysInSpace @The Angry Observer I have to inquire about why images from the previous chapters are not loading up. Is there a reason why?
Not sure. I skimmed the previous posts and didn’t see any issues with images on my end.
Just wanted to say the newest update will be on the Smith Administration’s huge programs designed to boost industrial output and catch up with MacArthur’s military technology advantage. It’s taking a bit, but progress is steady.