Fifty-Four Forty or Bite!

[Thespitron 6000]

So I've been working on a TL in which a mosquito bite in 1844 leads to an early Civil War and a Confederate victory. I've got about 6400 words so far and am through the Mexican-American War. Here's how it starts.

May 24, 1844: Gideon Pillow, member of the Tennessee delegation to the 1844 Democratic National Convention and close friend of James K. Polk, arrives in Washington, D.C. on his way to Baltimore. A mosquito lands on his hand while he dines with friends, and he hesitates to brush it off, more concerned with finishing his point than the annoying pest. It bites him before he squashes it.

May 27, 1844: The Democratic National Convention opens in Baltimore. Pillow lies in agony 37 miles away in DC, having contracted malaria from a mosquito bite. He recovers, but during the convention his place is taken by Andrew Johnson, an alternate delegate. In regards to the presidential nominee, the convention is intensely divided between supporters of former President Martin van Buren and those of General Lewis Cass. Cass has the support of many westerners, while van Buren has the support of New England. The major issue is the annexation of Texas, then an independent republic at war with Mexico. Van Buren opposes annexation; Cass supports it.

Van Buren’s opposition to the annexation of Texas, as well as his abolitionism, cause him to lose support among westerners and the South. Thanks to a recently changed rule of procedure, candidates must receive two-thirds of the delegates in order to win the nomination. Van Buren’s lack of support in the South and West means he lacks the necessary two-thirds, and numerous run-off ballots are held in order to determine a nominee. Cass gains support throughout this process, until he has the lead in delegates. However, he too lacks the necessary two-thirds.

OTL: George Bancroft, a delegate from Massachusetts, approaches Gideon Pillow about the possibility of running Polk, who had initially planned to contend for van Buren’s vice-presidency, as a compromise candidate. Pillow immediately and enthusiastically seizes on this idea, and on the eighth ballot Polk is introduced as a compromise. He wins with a unanimous vote on the ninth ballot.

ATL: Without Pillow, Andrew Johnson takes over leadership of the Tennessee delegation. No fan of Polk, Johnson is willing to throw him overboard in order to give the nomination to Cass. When Bancroft proposes to Johnson that Polk be put forward as a compromise candidate, Johnson rejects his suggestion out of hand. However, hearing of this, Lucius Lyon, a supporter of Cass, approaches Johnson after the seventh ballot. Lyon proposes that Johnson muster support for Cass among Polk’s people, and in exchange, Cass will choose Polk as his running mate. Johnson’s reply: “I’ll think about it.”

Johnson does, and on the morning of May 29th, he accepts Lyons’ proposal. On the ninth ballot, Cass wins 181 delegates, enough to secure the nomination. He is the Democratic candidate for President in 1844.​

 

[Koenig von Poposia]

This looks interesting...hope you'll keep it going. You share my pet peeve, it seems, with folks who want to capitalize the "v" in Dutch names beginning with a "van." If our Martin lived in The Netherlands, van Buren would be proper...but in an American context, I'm sorry to say, I must grudgingly concede that Van Buren is the common spelling with a capitalized "V." We all must bear our crosses without complaining, I suppose.

 

[Thespitron 6000]

I'm a huge grammar Nazi, probably as a result of teaching grammar for three years. So yes, it should only be capitalized at the start of sentences.

June - November 1844: The Whigs, the other major American party, have once again nominated Henry Clay, a perennial candidate and prominent senator. Although a forceful politician, time has passed Clay by; many of the issues he concerns himself with have long since been decided and forgotten by most Americans. On the Texas issue, he is opposed to annexation. Indeed, he is opposed to most American expansion. This puts him out of step with the American mainstream. Nonetheless, the campaign is grueling for both candidates.

November 5, 1844: Cass wins a narrow victory over Clay. His strong and forceful support for Texas annexation costs him support in New York and other abolitionist strongholds, but gains him votes in the South.

THE MEXICAN-AMERICAN WAR

February 26, 1845: Congress passes a resolution annexing Texas. Outgoing president John Tyler had seen the writing on the wall after the election of Cass, and throws his support behind annexation.

March 4, 1845: Lewis Cass is inaugurated as the eleventh president of the United States. Mexico breaks off diplomatic relations with the United States.

July - December 1845: Mexico had long been at war with Texas over the subject of the latter’s independence: Texasregards itself as an independent nation,Mexico regards it as a part of Mexico. As the Texas annexation grinds towards completion, Mexico warns the United States that it will constitute grounds for war. The United States ignores these threats.

July 1845: The Texas Congress endorses the annexation offer with only two dissenting votes. Shortly thereafter, they begin to write a constitution.

October 13, 1845: The Texan electorate approves the annexation.

November 7, 1845: Cass orders General Zachary Taylor to the Rio Grande with 3500 men to defend against “Mexican aggression” towards the soon-to-be state of Texas. Taylor establishes “Fort Texas” across from Matamoros, Mexico, on the Rio Grande.

December 29, 1845: Texas is formally incorporated into the Union as a slaveholding state.

April 27, 1846: Mexican cavalry cross the Rio Grande at Matamoros and attacks a small contingent of American infantry, routing them. The Mexican-American War begins.

 

[Thespitron 6000]

This part continues the Mexican-American War. The war follows the general lines of OTL, but because President Cass is less ambivalent about American expansion, he gives more support to Zachary Taylor and Winfield Scott, the American commanders, and the war ends slightly sooner than in OTL.

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May 7, 1846: Battle of Fort Texas: General Taylor repulses the forces of Mariano Arista, who is attacking the American outpost Fort Texas.

May 10, 1846: Battle of Resaca de la Palma: Taylor pursues and defeats Arista at a dry river bed, the Resaca de la Palma. Arista nearly achieves victory early in the battle, but infighting among his officers and difficulty of communications results in a catastrophic defeat. After the battle he is relieved of command and replaced by Pedro de Apudia.

May - August 1846: Taylor marches his forces, now numbering nearly 8000, through Tamaulipas, capturing the towns of Matamoros and Camargo, on the way to his destination of Monterrey, the capital of the state of Nuevo Leon.

Mid-June 1846: In California, word of the war between Mexico and the United States arrives.

June 18, 1846: Roughly 40 American settlers in California revolt and seize the Mexican garrison at Sonoma. They raise a flag festooned with the image of a bear over Sonoma, and declare the “Bear Republic.”

June 22, 1846: Capt. John Fremont of the US Army arrives in Sonoma and takes command of the situation. The Bear Republic lasts just five days.

July 7, 1846: US naval vessels occupy Monterey, California.

August 1846: Gen. Stephen Kearny’s Army of the West (approximately 1800 men) battle Governor Manuel Armijo’s Mexican regulars across New Mexico. Armijo, who does not wish to fight, gives up Santa Fe on August 16 without a shot being fired. Kearny leaves a small occupying force in New Mexico and marches for California.

September 2 - 4, 1846: Battle of Monterrey: Taylor commands 8000 troops against Apudia, who has 10,000 regulars and militia. Apudia retreats into the city proper after an initial engagement; American forces engage in house-to-house urban warfare. After three days, Apudia negotiates an armistice of two months with Taylor. Apudia is allowed to leave the city with his troops, an effective retreat. Taylor is castigated by many in the government for his decision to allow Apudia to retreat, but is supported by President Cass, who remarks, “When a man has a knife to the throat of another fellow, it makes sense to let him go if the other fellow’s friend is coming up with a cudgel”--in reference to Santa Anna’s army. Bolstered by Cass’s support, Taylor resolves to use the two months to his advantage, and drills his men relentlessly.

“We went from being a lawless rabble to being real soldiers, perhaps for the first time.” --Sgt. Robert Sullivan, Alabama Volunteers

October 23 - 26, 1846: Battle of Tabasco: Commodore Matthew Perry makes a minor show of force against the town of San Juan Batista, but withdraws after it is clear that he lacks the ground forces to commit to a full attack.

November 2, 1846: Battle of Saltillo: Taylor, with approximately 2500 troops (most of the remainder having been sent to join General Winfield Scott’s mission against Mexico City), besieges Saltillo and captures it after a three day siege.

December 22 - 27, 1846: Battles of Veracruz: US Marines land around Veracruz to prepare for General Scott’s march towards Mexico City.

January 1, 1847: “New Year’s Battle”, Battle of Cordoba: Santa Anna and a force of 25,000 Mexican soldiers collide with Scott’s 14,000 American soldiers. The battle is inconclusive, but kicks off “the Month of Battles,” as Santa Anna and Scott hammer each other across Veracruz towards Mexico City. Battles are fought on Jan. 6, Jan. 10, Jan. 17, Jan. 23, and Jan. 24.

January 9, 1846: Battle of Los Angeles: Kearny, with assistance from Commodore Robert Stockton’s Marines, defeats a force of Mexican militia near the Rio Hondo outside Pueblo de Los Angeles, and shortly thereafter enters the town proper. The war is over in California.

March 22, 1847: Battle of Cerro Gordo: After a month’s recovery time, Scott fights Santa Anna at the fortified defile of Cerro Gordo, the “Thermopylae of the West.” Artillery captain Robert E. Lee discovers path around Mexican forces, and the Mexicans are flanked by American troops, resulting in an American victory.

May 5, 1847: The Siege of Chapultepec. Scott besieges Chapultepec Castle outside of Mexico City.

May 14 - 18, 1847: Battle of Mexico City: Intense urban combat throughout the city. Santa Anna, although greatly outnumbering Scott, gradually loses the initiative due to squabbles among his subordinates.

May 20, 1847: Fall of Mexico City: After a day’s caesura to collect the wounded, the Americans resume the attack, and Santa Anna withdraws from the city.

September 1847: Mexico surrenders, and signs the Treaty of Azcapotzalco, which cedes Alta California, New Mexico, and Texas to the US. Although irregulars and partisans continue to fight against occupying US troops, on the whole the Mexican-American War is over.

 

[Thespitron 6000]

So Mexican-American War's over! Hooray! Everybody celebrate!...but what about Oregon? Has everybody forgotten Oregon? Not this guy.

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THE OREGON CRISIS 1846 -1848

Tensions between Great Britain and the United States had eased somewhat in the decades since the War of 1812, but as the 1840s opened they flared up again, centered on the unlikely issue of the Oregon Territory. Jointly occupied by both Britain and the United States, Oregon (south of the 54th parallel) was sparsely settled, yet rich in farmland and timber. Although joint control had been established since 1818, it chafed at both Britain and the US. As the 1840s progressed, hardliners on both sides pressed their respective governments to lay claim to the entirety of the territory, from the 42nd Parallel north to the 54th.

OTL: James Polk, a moderate on the expansion issue, brokers a treaty in 1846 establishing the border between British Canada and American Oregon as being at the 49th Parallel, a compromise solution, thus avoiding war. Lewis Cass, then a Senator, voted against the compromise.

ATL: Cass avoids any possible compromise position until the last possible moment, stalling for time while he attempts to deal with the Texas situation. Like many Democrats, he favors expansion to the 54th Parallel, and does not want to compromise. But though he is a hardliner in favor of American expansion, he is not stupid, and wishes to avoid two simultaneous wars. Oregon must wait until after Texas has been dealt with. Unfortunately, life is not so obliging.

May 17, 1846: Lyman Griffin, an American settler farming near Fort Vancouver, finds a stray dog in his henhouse. Several hens are already dead. Griffin, using his rifle, shoots the dog dead. The dog, as it turns out, belongs to Charles Cutler, a Hudson’s Bay Company regular and British subject. Cutler demands Griffin pay for the dog. Griffin demands Cutler pay for the hens. There is an altercation, and according to witnesses, Cutler assaults Griffin. Appealing to the local authorities, Griffin demands Cutler be charged with criminal assault. The local authorities are the Hudson’s Bay Company, who do nothing. Outraged, Griffin turns to the American representatives, the Provisional Government of Oregon, who arrest Cutler. A dispute between the HBC and the PGO immediately arises, and delegates are sent to their respective governments to request mediation.

August 1846: Representatives from both American and British settlers arrive in Washington and London, asking for mediation. Lord Palmerston, the British Foreign Secretary, is outraged at the treatment of Cutler, a British subject. He writes a hotly worded letter to President Cass, calling for Cutler’s release. However, Lord Russell, the Prime Minister, manages to convince Palmerston to tone down his rhetoric. The sentiment of the earlier letter remains, but the tone is considerably friendlier. In Washington, Secretary of State Edward Allen Hannegan remarks that Cutler “got what was coming to him, and damned right, too, that the British can’t keep their dogs leashed.” He refuses to mediate, regarding the PGO as having acted properly.

September 1846: Palmerston’s note arrives in Washington, and is delivered to Secretary of State Hannegan by British ambassador Richard Pakenham. Hannegan reads it and informs Pakenham that the view of the United States is that the Provisional Government of Oregon acted in accordance of the law--“There are witnesses,” he remarks at one point--and that therefore the United States intends to uphold their decision. Pakenham seethes, but after consultation with other members of his legation, grudgingly agrees with Hannegan’s decision.

October 1846: Palmerston is livid upon hearing word of the “resolution” to the crisis, but he recognizes that little can be done due to the weakness of the Russell government. War is, at the moment, not an option. However, he remarks to his secretary, “For the moment, the matter of Oregon is closed. When we are in a position of strength, then we will be in a position of strength, and the matter shall be open again.”

February 1847: A series of small legislative victories throughout 1846, including the Deodands Act and the Fatal Accidents Act, result in British Prime Minister John Russell having strengthened his political position somewhat, and Lord Palmerston feels free to take up the Oregon issue once more. He pens a note to American Secretary of State Hannegan requesting that the two powers enter negotiations to decide the issue.

March 1847: Hannegan discusses options regarding Oregon with President Cass. Cass, who correctly sees victory in Mexico to be a matter of months away, suggests that Hannegan stall until after the Mexican government surrenders, until then maintaining a firm position. Hannegan agrees, and writes a note he intends to present an assertive statement of the United States’ position while also diffusing any present tension.

Late March/Early April 1847: Hannegan’s note arrives in London. Russell’s government explodes. What was intended by Hannegan to be firm yet conciliatory is received by Whitehall with shock and outrage due to perceived inflammatory language. The key passage: “The American territory of Oregon, claimed by Britain, is regarded by most Americans as a vital part of this nation, and this dispute must be resolved in a fashion that is not excessively hasty.” Hannegan meant “North American territory of Oregon,” however Russell’s government--in particular Palmerston--read it as an implicit statement that the United States government does not recognize any aspect of Britain’s claim to the area. Further, Hannegan’s call for a slow resolution seems dilatory to the British; many American politicians held that the United States should simply wait until settlement of the area grossly favored the Americans, what John C. Calhoun described as “wise and masterly inactivity.” Hannegan’s statement seemed in line with this policy.

April 1847: Hannegan receives a sharply worded note from Pakenham, informing him that “Britain regards the whole of the Oregon region as being part of her sovereign territory, and that territory she holds as inviolate. This should be kept in mind by all officials of the United States during the forthcoming negotiations.”

Hannegan to Pakenham: “Britain, who has long fostered a policy of neglect towards the Oregon Territory, now attempts to assert control over her forgotten fiefdom at the expense of those who have long been its stewards, and with no commensurate reward. I refer his Lordship {Russell} to the right of possession.”

A war of words now begins between the United States Department of State and the British Foreign Office.

May 27, 1847: The new frigate HMS Dauntless stops the clipper Merry Susan, out of Jamaica, near Bermuda to inspect for contraband. Opium is found on board. Two American sailors are briefly imprisoned on Bermuda; when word reaches Washington, it is regarded as a studied, deliberate insult on the part of the British--which it is. Washington protests, and the sailors are released, but this is merely the first of a long summer’s worth of seizures.

June - September 1847: British ships continue to stop and briefly seize American vessels. The British are invariably quick to apologize, and blame their “errors” on faulty intelligence, but their objective is clear: to needle the Americans. It works. American papers erupt in a frenzy of outrage, calling for satisfaction for these insults. The New York Herald used that precise word in a editorial published on September 3, 1847, prompting New York Tribune editor Horace Greeley to sniff, “One would think that the Herald and the British Empire were a pair of besotted aristocrats, out to have it out with pistols in a field somewhere.”

September 19, 1847: With the Mexican-American War now ending, the push for a war with Great Britain becomes almost irresistible. “WE HAVE WHIPPED THE MEXICANS, NOW WE SHALL WHIP THE BRITISH” is the headline on the day’s Pennsylvania Inquirer. But President Cass is aware that most of his army is tied down in Mexico, and he needs to lay the political groundwork for war.

War fever is in the air. Virtually every newspaper attempts to handicap the US’s odds of victory; not surprisingly, the US usually comes out on top.

One lone voice, a junior congressman from Illinois, dissents. “There are storm-clouds on the horizon. Whether they are merely a passing summer squall or the all-encompassing hurricane remains to be seen, but we are sowing the wind, and I fear we shall reap the whirlwind.” --Rep. Abraham Lincoln

October 1847: General Zachary Taylor is recalled to Washington from Mexico to discuss the possibility of war with Great Britain. Taylor lays out the logistical issues. The bulk of the American army is needed for the occupation of Mexico. General William Rowan, the commander-in-chief of British forces in Canada, the likely venue for an American attack, commands roughly 10,000 regular troops, with approximately 25,000 militia. Furthermore, once the British begin to gear up for war, they will be able to provide an additional 50,000 troops. Both Cass and Taylor agree that war will be fought on the Eastern Seaboard, primarily in Canada and at sea.

November 1847: Taylor recalls his most promising officers from Mexico, including newly minted Lt. Col. Robert E. Lee, Col. Albert S. Johnston, Capt. James Longstreet, and Lt. Col. Joseph Hooker, in order to plan for an attack on eastern Canada.

December 1847 - February 1848: President Cass is in a difficult position. For the past year and a half, he has attempted to stall Britain while rushing to defeat Mexico. He now finds himself attempting to make up for lost time against the British. Relations between the United States and Britain have fallen to their lowest level since 1815. War seems imminent. And, indeed, Cass wants a war, which he believes will be short, and will give America control of the Oregon territory, and with luck, part of Canada. However, the 1848 presidential campaign is forthcoming, and while his reelection seems assured, there are no guarantees in politics. Cass hopes to have a second, short war, similar to the Mexican War, to assure his victory. And for that he needs the South.

While the South supported the Mexican War and Texas annexation--many Southern army officers served with distinction there--they are much less supportive of a war for Oregon. The Southern states wish to expand slavery across the whole of the southern portion of the continent. At the moment, a political balance exists between slave and free states in the federal government. Adding more slave states in the southern portion of the US would tip that balance towards the continuation of chattel slavery. More free states in the north, such as a free Oregon, would not. The South also fears the increase in Federal power that accompanies major wars. During the Mexican War they were willing to put aside this concern. Now they are not so willing.

Cass decides to undertake a risky gambit. To bring the South over to his side, he decides to enlist his chief nemesis: John C. Calhoun. Calhoun, a prominent and brilliant politician from South Carolina, is suspicious of federal power and an ardent supporter of slavery. Since the beginning of the Oregon Crisis, he has been opposed to American expansion into the Northwest. If Cass can get him to support a Canadian War, then many in the South will flip-flop and also vote for war.

“Be careful, that old snake could snooker Lucifer himself.” So warns Vice-President James Polk to Cass before the President’s meeting with Calhoun, but on this occasion it seems Cass did the snookering. Calhoun, initially suspicious, gradually warmed to Cass’s proposal: support the war against Canada, and Cass would support the movement of slavery into the new territory of California, and, implicitly, the rest of the American Southwest.

“I challenged him on this point, saying that his words spoken in public supported no such thing. ‘Senator,’ he replied, ‘I am for one thing, and that is the United States. If this is what it takes to get the South to defend this great nation, then so be it. I would give Satan himself a cabinet post if he would come down on the side of these United States.’” --John C. Calhoun, private letter

Calhoun goes away from the meeting pleased. He soon begins to muster support for the war among Southern politicians, quietly informing them of President Cass’s intention to support the spread of slavery throughout the recently conquered Mexican territories.

Cass intends no such thing. His words to Calhoun were a carefully messaged lie, designed to bring the South on board. Slavery would not extend to the new territories, at least not during Cass’s administration.

January 1848: Gold is discovered in California, near the small sawmill belonging to John Sutter.

March - May 1848: Taylor begins raising and training a new army, while units from Mexico begin to trickle back. By the end of May, Taylor has 25,000 men under arms, euphemistically deemed “militiamen.” Word of this reaches London, where Palmerston grows seriously alarmed. Meeting with Secretary at War Fox Maule, Palmerston outlays his concerns about American bellicosity in North America. Maule, however, is dismissive, believing that it will not come to war, and a diplomatic solution will be found.

May 2, 1848: The Whig Party meets in Philadelphia to pick a presidential candidate. Their initial choice is war hero Zachary Taylor. However, Taylor politely rebuffs them, as he is deeply involved in planning the coming hostilities with Great Britain. Henry Clay is put forward as a possible choice, but delegates are leery of a Cass-Clay rematch. Instead, they nominate a 66-year-old senator from New Hampshire. The race will be incumbent President Lewis Cass against Senator Daniel Webster.

June - October 1848: Revolutions break out throughout Europe. Great Britain does not suffer a revolution, but Chartism does increase in influence. The American Presidency, sensing an opportunity, introduces a declaration of war into Congress on June 9, 1848, a Friday. The joint session of Congress is raucous, nearly explosive. It lasts three and a half hours. The final vote? Senate 38 - 18 in favor, House 129 - 58 in favor. All but three of the opposed votes are in the South. As of 1:23 pm, June 9, 1848, the United States is at war with Great Britain.

Cass intends to fight a lightning war. As commander-in-chief of the American forces, he cannot allow the war to drag on. If Britain can bring her full imperial might to bear, America is finished. Therefore, the strategy Cass, Taylor, and their War Staff have developed requires a swift victory in Canada, while standing on the defensive at sea. Once the key cities of Toronto, Quebec City, and Montreal have been seized, and the Quebec and New Brunswick coasts secured, Britain will be required to sue for peace. American troops will be safely garrisoned inside large cities, while any attacking British force will have to traverse Labrador, and be exposed to the elements of the early Canadian winter. Oregon, the territory that started all of this, is forgotten. Fighting will not come there for another fourteen months.

Late June 1848: Word arrives in London that the Americans have declared war. “Well, you bluffed, and Cass called it, and now Cass is declaring war,” snarls Palmerston during one particularly heated meeting with Secretary at War Maule. “I did not think he would be damned fool enough to do it!” is Maule’s unguarded response.

Britain’s old warhorse, the Duke of Wellington is called forth. Although long past his prime, he is still Britain’s premier military leader. In council, he informs Prime Minister Russell that to get Britain on a war footing will take three months. At this time, the British are under the impression that Taylor’s troops are spread out through the United States--the one successful outcome of Taylor’s classifying them as militiamen. In fact, they are massing in New York, preparing to cross the US-Canada border. Taylor will be prepared to attack by the end of August at the latest. This will make for a short campaign season--by November, it will be too cold to fight--but that favors the Americans, if Taylor’s strategy succeeds.

 

[Don Lardo]

Why would opium be considered contraband in 1847? After all, Britain, the US, and other countries are selling tons of it in China and it can be purchased quite legally in chemists and apothecary shops.

Aren't you projecting modern sensibilities into the past?

 

[Thespitron 6000]

Well, I was more thinking that the British would want to maintain their monopoly in Asia; really, anything the British might consider contraband would do, since the notion is that the British are using trumped-up charges to nettle the Americans. What are your thoughts?

 

[Don Lardo]

Well, I was more thinking that the British would want to maintain their monopoly in Asia...

Seeing as American, French, Dutch, and even Russian traders all sold opium in Asia, the UK didn't have a monopoly there. Or nothing you'd recognize as a monopoly. The only monopoly was that of the EIC and it only lasted a short time.

What the EIC had was control of the poppy fields and a monopoly that the only British ships which could carry opium were their's, but anyone could buy opium from them and sell it on to the Chinese.

... since the notion is that the British are using trumped-up charges to nettle the Americans. What are your thoughts?

To be honest, I think the piece is flawed from the very beginning. While parts of the US south were malarial, Washington DC never was so Pillow's death is from malaria contracted in Washington is a big problem. It smacks of "I've got to kill Pillow, so this might work"

The Mexican war descriptions contain many anachronisms too, especially the repeated references to days of house to house fighting and the contention that Santa Anna would be able to fight 6 battles in a month given his supply situation.

Hannegan making a mistake and leaving off "North" from "North America" is just as bad and forced as the circumstances of Pillow's death. The letter would have been written by department clerks, reviewed several people, and sent to the US ambassador to deliver. Except in extremely rare cases, the US ambassador would also be instructed to read it before delivery so he could answer questions. There are too many people involved for the mistake not to have been noticed and either corrected or explained.

As for the UK frigate stopping the US clipper as a studied insult, did the Admiralty radio their instructions to the frigate's commander? Seriously though, did the frigate's captain actually receive orders to board a US ship on the high seas as a way of nettling the US? How many other RN captains got similar orders? Or was the ship off Bermuda the only one?

There are plenty of other levers in London's hands, many financial, which could get the same point across without giving orders to a lone frigate captains in the hopes they'll come across a US merchantman, seize it, and then treat the crew just badly enough to nettle the US without also causing major incidents.

Taylor training troops but calling them militia to fool the British is yet another modern anachronism. This isn't the 20th Century and you're dealing with an age in which military plans were openly discussed in newspapers. Cass planning for a "lightning war" actually made me wince.

I don't think you've looked at how the war vote in Congress would plausibly play out either. 1812 is in living memory and New England, which didn't support the Mexican War, isn't going to like risking another RN blockade for another land grab on the opposite side of the continent.

You've got news and letters crossing the Atlantic far too quickly also.

 

[Deleted member 16736]

Webster vs. Cass? Should make a fun race. I'm sure Webster will be upset at Cass' undoing his work as Secretary of State vis a vis the relationship he helped create with Britain not 6 years earlier. Considering Webster's date of death, and assuming you'll stick with a similar time frame, I think it is prudent to ask who his running mate will be.

And something tells me we won't be seeing a compromise of 1850 in this timeline...

At any rate, I am intrigued and I can't wait to read more.

 

[Koenig von Poposia]

September 1847: Mexico surrenders, and signs the Treaty of Azcapotzalco, which cedes Alta California, New Mexico, and Texas to the US. Although irregulars and partisans continue to fight against occupying US troops, on the whole the Mexican-American War is over.

I thought I might see the USA taking Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas as American territory as well since your Cass is an expansionist.

 

[Thespitron 6000]

Seeing as American, French, Dutch, and even Russian traders all sold opium in Asia, the UK didn't have a monopoly there. Or nothing you'd recognize as a monopoly. The only monopoly was that of the EIC and it only lasted a short time.

What the EIC had was control of the poppy fields and a monopoly that the only British ships which could carry opium were their's, but anyone could buy opium from them and sell it on to the Chinese.

As for the UK frigate stopping the US clipper as a studied insult, did the Admiralty radio their instructions to the frigate's commander? Seriously though, did the frigate's captain actually receive orders to board a US ship on the high seas as a way of nettling the US? How many other RN captains got similar orders? Or was the ship off Bermuda the only one?

There are plenty of other levers in London's hands, many financial, which could get the same point across without giving orders to a lone frigate captains in the hopes they'll come across a US merchantman, seize it, and then treat the crew just badly enough to nettle the US without also causing major incidents.

I'm open to suggestions here. The British want to irritate the Americans; how would you suggest they go about it? It should be something, that while not a direct cause for war, would nonetheless get across Britain's point: do not mess with us, because we have all the ships and all the guns, so we can very easily mess with you. Any suggestions?

To be honest, I think the piece is flawed from the very beginning. While parts of the US south were malarial, Washington DC never was

In 1882, Albert Freeman Africanus King, one of the first doctors to draw the connection between mosquitoes and malaria, suggested that malaria be eradicated from Washington, D.C. by erecting mosquito netting in a circle around the whole city. It was thought by many to be a joke, but it certainly suggests that malaria was present in the city.

so Pillow's death is from malaria contracted in Washington is a big problem. It smacks of "I've got to kill Pillow, so this might work"

I stated that Pillow recovered.

The Mexican war descriptions contain many anachronisms too, especially the repeated references to days of house to house fighting

The Mexican and American armies did engage in urban warfare and house-to-house fighting during the Battle of Monterrey.

Cass planning for a "lightning war" actually made me wince.

"lightning war" is my phrase. You can phrase it as "Cass hoped to win a very fast war," if you like.

You've got news and letters crossing the Atlantic far too quickly also.

Transatlantic crossings during the 1840s ran about 10 days.

Koenig, Jefferson Davis did introduce a resolution into Congress annexing northeastern Mexico in OTL. It was defeated 44 - 11. Lewis Cass opposed it.

 

[Cylon_Number_14]

I think perhaps I'm not the only person who recently read the President Polk biography A Country of Vast Designs.....

I apologize if I missed this point in the discussion which I didn't skim well, but the Mexican War was not considered short and glorious, it was actually deeply unpopular in the North with lots of vitriolic calls for impeachment and rabble-rousing over the implications of the Slave Power. I would think this reaction would make it extremely difficult for Cass to get his war declaration in the House of Representatives even with Southern support. But you did mention that the British were unwisely needling the Americans with ship seizures and such, so that could balance the general anti-war feeling alongside the victory fever of 1848.

 

[rcduggan]

I'm a huge grammar Nazi, probably as a result of teaching grammar for three years. So yes, it should only be capitalized at the start of sentences.

But seeing as Martin Van Buren wrote it that way in his own signature, I think we should assume that he would want others to mimic that.

Anyway, I'm still not sure about the 1844 election iTTL. Polk ran on a platform supporting the Texas annexation, so I think the OTL Democrats' performance in the south is the best Cass could do. And if Clay is more anti-slavery, giving New York to the Whigs as you suggest, then Clay would win the election.

 

[Thespitron 6000]

I apologize if I missed this point in the discussion which I didn't skim well, but the Mexican War was not considered short and glorious, it was actually deeply unpopular in the North with lots of vitriolic calls for impeachment and rabble-rousing over the implications of the Slave Power. I would think this reaction would make it extremely difficult for Cass to get his war declaration in the House of Representatives even with Southern support. But you did mention that the British were unwisely needling the Americans with ship seizures and such, so that could balance the general anti-war feeling alongside the victory fever of 1848.

Also, I think the notion that expanding into the Oregon territory would provide a counterbalance to the increase in slave states in the South might provide an incentive for northern abolitionists to support a "brief" war with Canada. In essence, the positions would be reversed: the South would oppose a war with Britain, while the North would support it. The causes of any war are fairly complex, and any number of things might tip the balance one way or the other. But I think the main divergence is the position of Cass as President rather than Polk. Polk attempted to moderate the more extreme members of the Democratic Party, and eventually settled on the 49th parallel compromise. Cass, on the other hand, was much more hardline on the Oregon issue, and I imagine this stance would gradually lead to America and Great Britain unwisely antagonizing each other. In that situation, things could very easily spiral towards war.

 

[Thespitron 6000]

This entry is probably going to be the most error-riddled so far; I'm simply not an expert on 1840s military tactics. For that reason, I've tried to paint the battles with as broad strokes as possible. Still, if I've made any egregious errors, please let me know. Also, I haven't included anything on the naval battles during this period; I intend to cover those during a later update. And: maps!

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July 1848: While Taylor and Wellington are furiously preparing their respective armies, Winfield Scott, the hero of Mexico City, is returning to the United States as quickly as he can with 8000 men. Cass and Taylor are determined not to make the mistakes that doomed previous American invasions of Canada. Simple strategies, with clear goals and sufficient men to carry them out, are what will carry the day in Canada. With Scott’s army, the American force will have approximately 35,000 men under arms. Fifteen thousand under Taylor are to cross at Niagra and move northeast to capture Toronto. Twenty thousand under Scott will move north across the New York border and capture Montreal, then proceed along the St. Lawrence River to capture Quebec City and eventually secure the New Brunswick coast with the aide of Commodore Matthew Perry. Simple.

American Strategy for Canadian Invasion. Blue circles represent American naval defensive positions.​

Over the next month, Scott will move his army from New Orleans up along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, and disembark them at Pittsburgh to march overland to northern New York.

September 1848: The British continue recruiting and training their men to cross the Atlantic and fight in Canada. FitzRoy Somerset, Baron Raglan, the military secretary of the Duke of Wellington, is appointed to the rank of General and is named commander of the British force in Canada. He, along with Wellington, hope to have at least 20,000 men ready by the end of the month.

September 8, 1848: The invasion of Canada begins. Taylor’s men successfully force a crossing at the Niagra River south of Fort George. The fort has a garrison of 300 men; Taylor simply ignores it. They are met at the village of Allanburg by approximately 2000 militiamen from Niagra and the surrounding area. Shots are fired, but the militiamen quickly pull back as they realize they are massively outnumbered.

Taylor's movement through Niagra.​

Canada’s military forces are commanded by General William Rowan, an able and competent leader. Scott and Taylor have their mission, and Rowan has his, which can be summed up in one word: stall. With a force of only 10,000 regulars, Rowan knows that he can’t last for long against Scott’s army. Rowan’s men are untried and supported by poorly trained militiamen. Scott, by contrast, leads a force of proven soldiers, fresh from a victory in Mexico, who have seen combat and know they can handle themselves. Rowan, therefore, recognizes he can’t hope to defeat the Americans. All he can hope to do is stall them until reinforcements from Britain arrive.

Rowan predicts that Scott (although, of course, he doesn’t know the name of the American commander yet) will move towards Quebec City. The coast is the key to the American strategy, it is clear, and the Americans can let the interior of Canada handle itself. Therefore, Rowan moves his men towards Quebec City, to intercept the Americans, on September 1.

On September 2, a British cavalry scout near Plattsburgh, NY spots a mass of smoke to the southwest--Scott’s army, assembling. The scout rides like a madman back to report to Rowan, who is startled to realize that Scott is not where he should be. In an act of snap leadership, Rowan manages to march his army of approximately 10,000 regulars and 5,000 militia the 160 miles to Montreal in just five days, arriving there on Sept. 8.

September 10, 1848: Scott’s invasion of Canada has gone well. Crossing over the border north of Plattsburgh, he has encountered little resistance--some militiamen, but nothing his troops can’t handle. Stores are plentiful; the Canadians have had a bountiful harvest. On the morning of Sept. 10, he spurs his horse and crests a small rise to see the picturesque panorama of Montreal spread out before him, still sleepy in the early morning, and commands his men to advance. After that, nothing goes right.

Rowan and his men have arrived two days prior, and spent those two days hard at work fortifying positions around the city. As Scott’s men advance, Rowan’s small accompaniment of artillery fires, signaling a general volley from Rowan’s musket-men behind earthen berms.

Battle of Montreal, Day One​

Scott, whose men are hideously exposed on the plain around Montreal, orders a charge from his cavalry under Col. Albert Sidney Johnston. Although Johnston’s men succeed in getting in among the British in the frontline fortifications, they are unable to capitalize on this breach, and are forced back. Scott’s infantrymen, without cover and subject to withering fire, are even less successful. Scott orders a temporary withdrawal.

While Scott’s aide-de-camp, Maj. Thomas Jackson, suggests simply bypassing Montreal, Scott won’t hear of it. Not only is the capture of Montreal vital to America’s war plans, he cannot leave a substantial enemy force at his back. Montreal must be taken.

September 13, 1848: Although it has been slower than he had hoped, Taylor is satisfied with his progress. He now sits on the outskirts of Toronto, which seems to have only minimal defenses. He intends to let his men have a day of rest before continuing the assault, to ensure they are fit and ready.

Scott, meanwhile, is in hell. For the past two days, he has been engaged in an artillery bombardment of the British positions, pouring cannonballs by the dozen down on Rowan’s men, with very little to show for it. Time is running out. He must be at the mouth of the St. Lawrence Seaway by the middle of October to link up with Commodore Perry. That is now only a month away.

September 14, 1848: Battle of Toronto: Taylor’s troops fight 3000 militia with minimal casualties. The militia commander surrenders after just three hours, and Taylor is jovial as he accepts the other man’s sword. Indeed, to the Canadian militia, this battle, even though they have lost, seems a grand adventure.

Battle of Montreal, day 5: Scott, having reduced the British defenses at Verdun and Lasalle to heaps of loose dirt, orders his men to attack across the St. Lawrence River. This attack is rebuffed, but at high casualties to the British.

Battle of Montreal, Day Five​

September 15, 1848: Battle of Montreal, day 6: Lt. Col. Robert E. Lee proposes to General Scott a night-time attack, under cover of darkness, near Ile Bizard. After some thought, Scott approves. Although the Americans take tremendous losses, by morning a beachhead has been forced on the northeast side of the Ile de Montreal.

Battle of Montreal, Day Six​

September 16, 1848: Battle of Montreal, day 7: House-to-house fighting in Ste. Genevieve and Dollard des Ormeaux. The Americans prove to be good at this; the Mexican veterans being particularly vicious.

September 18, 1848: Battle of Montreal, day 9: American troops reach Outremont. Recognizing the situation is lost, Rowan and his troops withdraw to the east, fighting their way through Maj. George McClellan’s troops, despite Scott’s explicit orders to McClellan not to allow them to escape. Rowan has lost nearly 3000 men; the Americans, 7500.

Battle of Montreal, Day Nine​

September 19 - 26, 1848: Rowan’s troops engage in retreat to Quebec City. Scott attempts to pursue, but is hampered by the arrival of 3,000 militiamen from New Brunswick. Untried, ill-equipped, and badly trained, the militiamen are cut down wholesale by the Americans, but they manage, through dint of sheer courage, to slow the Americans down for a day. That day proves crucial, as it allows Rowan to escape to Quebec City and begin the process of fortifying that city.

Scott is joined by half of Taylor’s army, the remainder having stayed in Toronto for occupation. Bolstered by this increase in numbers, Scott moves at full speed toward Quebec City.

September 28, 1848: Battle of Quebec, day -1: Determined not to make the same mistake twice, Scott immediately dispatches cavalry to scout the full extent of the British fortifications. Any weakness will be exploited. The cavalry, under the command of Albert Johnston, report that the fortifications are far less formidable than those of Montreal. In addition, Quebec is not on an island, which makes assaulting its defenses that much easier. Satisfied with this intelligence, Scott begins drawing up his order of battle. Tomorrow will see a full-fledged attack on the whole of the British defenses.

Writing to his wife, Mary, Lt. Col. Robert E. Lee muses on the possibility of his own death in the forthcoming battle. “I have feared death nowhere, not in Mexico, nor in Texas, or in Montreal, and I do not fear it tomorrow. But I have seen these British in the sting and clash of battle, and though they are outnumbered, outgunned, outsoldiered, I do think they shall fight like lions, for they fought like lions at Montreal. Therefore, it is likely that I may die. Oh Mary, how I long to see you! But my ties of loyalty to this country are undiminished, are as undiminishing as my ties to you, and I can think of no glorious cause to die in the service of than that of this great nation. I shall go into battle tomorrow with a light heart, knowing that we may yet win, with God on our side. And we must win. If we do not win, here and now, then this war shall not be won for ten years.” His words would prove prescient.

September 29, 1848: Battle of Quebec, day 1: “The Day of Reckoning.” So writes Col. Joseph Hooker in his diary, and he is correct. Cold weather is already beginning to move in; within a few weeks, it will be below freezing. By that time, the American army must be at the New Brunswick coast, to prevent the landing of any British troops.

The battle begins at dawn, with a cannon volley designed to demoralize the defending British. It does not work. The British remain steadfast at their defenses. Despite this minor setback, the situation favors the Americans. Their morale is high, having won two victories at Toronto and at Montreal. Quebec is not as easily defensible as Montreal, and the British have had less time to prepare defenses. The American forces number around 19,000 men, the British just 7000 regulars, plus 4000 militia. Rowan needs to hold out for several days, while Scott needs a quick victory in a day or less. Neither man will get their wish.

Although the British defenses are weak, they nonetheless provide enough of a challenge to prevent Johnston and McClellan’s cavalry from getting a toehold inside the British line of battle. It is Robert E. Lee, the recently promoted young colonel from Virginia, who proves most valuable. His regiment successfully crosses the St. Lawrence at Saint Croix, a risky maneuver, since he might be cut off by the British. Instead, he forces a small contingent of roughly 1000 Canadian militia men to retreat through Pont Rouge, thus creating an American beachhead on the north side of the city and preparing the way for an American encirclement. The day ends with much movement but little actual gain by either side.

September 30, 1848: Battle of Quebec, day 2: With a beachhead on the north bank of the St. Lawrence, Scott elects to encircle the British and compel surrender. Rowan, recognizing the danger to his own forces, attempts to contest this, resulting in bloody fighting all through the small villages of Lac-Saint-Charles, Saint-Emile, and Loretteville. Losses are staggering for both sides: at one point, the Americans lose 752 men in twenty minutes, British casualties, though uncounted, are thought to be worse, and eventually it is clear that the British cannot withstand a third day of this carnage.

October 1, 1848: Shortly before dawn, encircled and hemorrhaging men, William Rowan meets with Winfield Scott and surrenders his troops. “I have lost half my men and the whole of my country. I expect you think I am the greatest military fool since Croesus,” Rowan is said to have remarked upon meeting Scott. “No,” replied Scott. “Let history decide who was the fool here.”

October 6, 1848: 20,000 British troops under Lord Raglan land at Riviere-du-Loop, and establish winter quarters there. It is expected that another 20,000 will arrive before the end of the winter.

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Your thoughts?

 

[Thespitron 6000]

Issues: from the perspective of a purely land war, the US has the advantage. Their officer corps is seasoned from fighting in Mexico, and includes Ulysses S. Grant, Robert E. Lee, Zachary Taylor, Thomas J. Jackson, Joseph Hooker, and Albert Sidney Johnston. Logistically, their supply lines are almost entirely internal, and significantly shorter than those of the British. The British officer corps has some good officers, but is still somewhat old-fashioned. Men like Raglan and Cardigan dominate. Plus, their supply lines reach across the Atlantic.

For the Americans, the sea is the issue. How do they defeat the British at sea?

For the British, how do they defeat the Americans on land?

Politically, Cass has painted himself into a corner. He's promised John C. Calhoun in private that California will become a slave state, a promise he has no intention of keeping. Had the war in Canada been short, Cass could have probably weathered the political storm of reneging on his word, but not now. The Californians and the Northerners are not going to react well to the idea of the entire American southwest becoming a slave-holding region, and Calhoun and the southerners won't react well to Cass's deception.

Further down the line: How does this affect the Crimean War? Is there a Crimean War? Perhaps the British are too tied down with matters on the North American continent to worry about the Russians moving into the Black Sea. Or they do worry about it, but can't do anything. Maybe the deadwood that so hindered the British during OTL gets cut out before the Crimean War, and instead they have a much more successful campaign there.

Japan: does an American flotilla still steam into Uraga and force the opening of the Empire to western influence? Or are the Japanese allowed to remain isolationist? No Meiji Restoration, then.

American adventurers in Central America: still happen? No? Maybe they go to fight in Canada instead?

 

[Lord Grattan]

Answers to a couple of your questions:

If the US doesn't open the door in Japan Russia probably will.

Regarding California, how about a "two state" solution, with the dividing line being somewhere between the 36th & 37th parallel - Sierra (or North California), a free state and California (or South California), a slave state.

 

[Thespitron 6000]

Regarding California, how about a "two state" solution, with the dividing line being somewhere between the 36th & 37th parallel - Sierra (or North California), a free state and California (or South California), a slave state.

That's a good idea (allohistorically, of course, not morally ). I can see Cass proposing that as a way of placating Calhoun and the Southerners. It won't work, though. Establishing a South California slave state would be seen by many, both north and south, as a tacit extension of slavery into New Mexico Territory as well. The Northern abolitionists aren't going to stand for that. Cass has inadvertently poisoned the well re: Compromise of 1850; any compromise on California is going to look like reneging on his earlier promise. It don't look good, folks.

 

[FDW]

Interesting, I'll keep my eyes on this TL.

 

[Thespitron 6000]

Anyone with an interest or knowledge of the politics of this period, I'd appreciate your feedback on this next section, since a lot of it's fairly speculative, based on what I know of the personalities of the time.

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THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN:

June - October 1848: The presidential campaign of 1848 is tendentious. The major issue is the coming war in Canada. Daniel Webster, the Whig nominee, opposes the war, and is particularly incensed by the effective repudiation of the Webster-Ashburton treaty, which in 1842 sought to permanently set the eastern border between the US and Canada. Among northern opponents to the war, he is popular; however, his moderate stance on slavery loses him support among abolitionists.

Cass remains popular; among Southerners his implicit promise to extend slavery to California overrides their suspicion of increased federal war powers, and the successful prosecution of the war in Mexico leads many northerners to believe that the war in Canada will be similarly short, and to defect from the Whigs.

In early May, a third party is announced: the Peaceful Abode Party. Taking its name from a verse from the Book of Isaiah, the PA Party run on a platform opposed to the war and radically abolitionist. Their nominee for the election is Martin van Buren. Throughout the summer, they gain modest amounts of support in the North.

Webster, although a powerful orator, is hurt by his stances on several issues that run counter to the majority opinion. Cass, in contrast, presents a “common man” persona that deeply appeals to many in the West and the industrial Northeast. His positions are largely in the mainstream, and his success in Mexico bolsters his popularity. Upon hearing that Webster has claimed any war with Canada will be a spectacular blunder, Cass declares that it will be a “most jolly little war. The British have had things their way for long enough. Now it is our turn.” The New York Herald’s opinion piece the next day is entitled NOW IT IS OUR TURN. The phrase becomes popular among opinion makers.

November 7, 1848: Election Day. Cass’s “jolly little war”, although the fact is unrecognized by virtually everyone in the US, is a failure. Although Scott has successfully captured Toronto, Montreal, and Quebec City, he has failed in his primary goal of isolating Canada from the British military. Now the war will drag on into 1849. However, in the United States, the mood is jubilant.

The presidential race is exceptionally tight. Although Daniel Webster has run hard against Cass, the Whigs’ perverse tradition of taking the least popular position on every possible issue has scuttled his campaign. Martin van Buren’s Peaceful Abode Party acts as a spoiler, drawing away votes from Webster in New York and New England. Lewis Cass is re-elected with a healthy majority.

His jubilation at his victory is soured somewhat by the persistent rumors that he has cut a deal with Calhoun on slavery. Cass doesn’t dare refute them before the election, but in private remains confident they are a minor matter. In the South, especially in Texas, the rumors have become received wisdom. The headline on the Planter’s Gazette of Montgomery, Alabama on November 8: NOW IT IS OUR TURN.

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Questions: Webster was a major, major booster of establishing trade relations with Japan. Would this have been an issue this early; that is, would it have come up during the campaign? And if so, how does it affect any potential American expedition later?

Who are Webster and van Buren's running mates?

My interpretation of the campaign is that OTL Taylor's war heroism was a major boost to his campaign. Yes, the Canadian war will hurt Cass, but not enough to help Webster win, since Webster doesn't have the M-A War bump. Ironically, OTL van Buren acted as a spoiler towards Cass; here he knocks Webster out. Cass gets re-elected, I'm thinking.

1849's going to be an...interesting year, from the looks of things. Scott vs. Raglan, battles at sea, the slavery issue, and, oh yeah, there's trouble brewing out west. Maybe Kearny shouldn't have pushed Fremont out of the military governor's seat?...