Fate of the Liberals With No SDP split?

[Deleted member 157939]

True, I think if he saw how the wind was blowing he would probably decide against it (though Heseltine’s support for Devolution would probably lead to him supporting some ideas of simplifying and modifying the rates system).

If there’s no SDP but a Trundling Liberals then would could see the Radical Tory folks like Gilmour and of course Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler making the direct defection instead of puttering around in the SDP. How it would help the Liberals I’m not sure, but it’s fun to consider.

Building on @stodge ‘s idea for a timeline. The victory of a Thatcherite candidate, assuming Thatcher steps down in 88, could inevitably lead to the straw that breaks the camel’s back for the radical Tories. I could see the Liberals having a much easier time recruiting Tory defectors then the SDP, considering the parties history. Such defections could prove deeply damaging especially with the likely upheaval of the early 90s.
Should the Tories remain in power through a coalition following 92, the combined (most probably much worse due to the governments tenuous position) effects of Black Wednesday, the Sleaze, and in-fighting over Europe could potentially make way for a stream of defections towards the Liberals, effectively paralyzing the Tories. As for Labour, I could see Shore being succeeded by another soft-left candidate, perhaps Straw or Blunkett.

 

[Time Enough]

Building on @stodge ‘s idea for a timeline. The victory of a Thatcherite candidate, assuming Thatcher steps down in 88, could inevitably lead to the straw that breaks the camel’s back for the radical Tories. I could see the Liberals having a much easier time recruiting Tory defectors then the SDP, considering the parties history. Such defections could prove deeply damaging especially with the likely upheaval of the early 90s.

Oh indeed maybe Jeffery Hayes bumbles off too who knows, maybe throw in a David Owen having a strop too (I get the sense that Owen would eventually split from Labour even without an SDP if he’s sidelined at any point) would cause a more turbulent 90s. But yeah, it the Liberals could become this force of parochial Anti-Thatcherism.

Should the Tories remain in power through a coalition following 92, the combined (most probably much worse due to the governments tenuous position) effects of Black Wednesday, the Sleaze, and in-fighting over Europe could potentially make way for a stream of defections towards the Liberals, effectively paralyzing the Tories

Indeed, probably could have a Tory collapse in the early 90s (though probably not to the extremes of the Blairite wave etc.)

As for Labour, I could see Shore being succeeded by another soft-left candidate, perhaps Straw or Blunkett.

Whilst Straw and Blunkett are good Post-Shore candidates (particularly if they decide to continue Shore’s Small c Conservatism) the major candidate would probably be Bryan Gould due to Gould being both a protege of Shore whilst also displaying a Social Liberal/Radical aspect too which would probably unify the Soft Left more than the awkward Social Conservative’s that are Straw and Blunkett.

That or one of the Old Right folks tries to slip in which could be hard given apart from John Smith there’s very few other good candidates.

 

[Deleted member 157939]

Well Maggie originally wanted Cecil Parkinson but his love child put a quash on that. King and Moore are probably the ‘Thatcher’ approved candidates with King more likely to win due to being competent at his job. Other Right Candidates could include Ian Gow if he decides to make a run himself (it’s that or he runs someone else’s campaign).

Gilmour and Tebbit would probably be seen as yesterday’s men, though I could see Norman still trying and failing all the same. Heseltine could certainly be the One Nation candidate and be helped by not going up against Major and not being seen as having plunged the knife in, so he could win.

Other One Nation candidates could be Paul Channon or Peter Walker if they position themselves right, though they also suffer from the Gilmour/Tebbit problem.

A moderate/Unity candidate could be Chris Patten who was fairly popular in the party from what I know, though he could support Heseltine depending on how things go.

Speaking of Parkinson, no SDP split might produce the butterflies to prevent the revelation of his affair to the public, perhaps even prevent the birth of his child. In such circumstances, Parkinson would be the most probable contender in an 88 contest. I wonder how a Parkinson ministry would unfold ?

 

[Time Enough]

wonder how a Parkinson ministry would unfold ?

Probably be Continuity Thatcherism, with someone who isn’t as gifted with the charisma of Thatcher. Parkinson isn’t going to be doing any big changes, probably just continue what was already started and maybe be a bit more Eurosceptic when it comes Tom Europe.

 

[marktaha]

Probably be Continuity Thatcherism, with someone who isn’t as gifted with the charisma of Thatcher. Parkinson isn’t going to be doing any big changes, probably just continue what was already started and maybe be a bit more Eurosceptic when it comes Tom Europe.

He looked like a Tory politician out of central casting.

 

[Time Enough]

A quick list based upon the discussion involved etc.

1979-1988: Margaret Thatcher (Conservative)
1979 (Majority) def: James Callaghan (Labour), David Steel (Liberal), William Wolfe (SNP)
1983 (Majority) def: Peter Shore (Labour), David Steel (Liberal)
1987 (Majority) def: Peter Shore (Labour), David Penhaligon (Liberal)
1988-1992: Cecil Parkinson (Conservative)
1992-: Bryan Gould (Labour)
1992 (Majority) def: Cecil Parkinson (Conservative), David Penhaligon (Liberal), Alex Salmond (SNP), David Owen (Reform)

 

[Deleted member 157939]

A quick list based upon the discussion involved etc.

1979-1988: Margaret Thatcher (Conservative)
1979 (Majority) def: James Callaghan (Labour), David Steel (Liberal), William Wolfe (SNP)
1983 (Majority) def: Peter Shore (Labour), David Steel (Liberal)
1987 (Majority) def: Peter Shore (Labour), David Penhaligon (Liberal)
1988-1992: Cecil Parkinson (Conservative)
1992-: Bryan Gould (Labour)
1992 (Majority) def: Cecil Parkinson (Conservative), David Penhaligon (Liberal), Alex Salmond (SNP), David Owen (Reform)

Would make a stellar TL. Could see a 97 election unfolding as a Gould vs Wet Tory leader/Unity candidate contest. Could see the election swinging either way depending on how the five years play out.

Harman, Beckett, Dobson, Cook, all come to the mind as probable successors to Gould

 

[Time Enough]

Could see a 97 election unfolding as a Gould vs Wet Tory leader/Unity candidate contest. Could see the election swinging either way depending on how the five years play out.

Could be in 96’ depending on polls, also the Liberals would probably have a new leader at this point, with the likely dominance of the Green Guard as a modernising Force, there’s a chance that it’s someone like Archy Kirkwood or Janet Ray Minchie could become leader. Maybe Simon Hughes if he manages to win a seat.