Fate of New Caledonia if not annexed to France in 1853?

What alternatives were there had Napoleon III not annexed the island(s), and what might it mean for the New Hebrides, modern Vanuatu too?
 
What alternatives were there had Napoleon III not annexed the island(s), and what might it mean for the New Hebrides, modern Vanuatu too?
New Caledonia would probably be snapped up by the British at some point and fall within the Australian orbit. Perhaps a Melanesian confederation with Fiji and Vanuatu?
 
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