Fall of Constantinople what if analysis

[pls don't ban me]

So, this thread is probably one of the most, if not the most, re proposed from time to time, but i see every time almost everyone saying that Constantinople was doomed, an opinion to which i disagree.

While it's true that the ERE was to a point of utter disgrace there are some factor that might might enable the "empire" to survive and maybe recover ( not age of miracles level but more Avitus TL level).

• Çandarlı Halil Pascià II: the grand Vizier was an enemy of Mehmet de facto, and was against the conquest of Constantinople as he though it might cause more reaction from the christian world than what happened in OTL. From what we now he was for a status quo with the ERE in a vassalage status.
• Orhan Celebi, a cousin of Mehmet was amongst the defenders with 600 ottoman defector/mercenaries. in case of an Byzantine victory in the siege the prestige and reputation of Mehmet might fall so low( bolstered by Candarli for sure) to a level where orhan might even try a civil war, supported by the Byzantines in exchange for some… monetary reparations or border corrections.
• Giovanni Giustiniani: his fatal injury is what gave the ottomans a 100% victory chance in the last assault. he is one of the keys for the future of the city. Even Mehmet was amused by this men by trying to corrupt him and then commemorate him after his death.
• Loukas Notara: while it still not demonstrated and probably never will, for lack of documents, it is a recognized theory that he left opened the doors for the ottoman to enter the city. the reason why i support such theory is because mehmet was smart enough to kill him after the conquest and destroy the proofs of the betrayal in order to bolster his conquest of the city worlds desire. The reason why he would betray the empire was his own interests, he was the richest man of the Balkans and the war was hurting his capitals. he was also against the union of churches and even suggested to surrender the city and flee to peloponnese.( in a less serious tone: best PM ever).
• Golden Horn events: Despite managing to circumvent the port chain it was still there. if the attempt made by the Venetians to bring explosives and detonate the ottoman fleet had succeed, mehmet would have to start over again. Also the genoese on the other side in Pera, would be able to send again supplies without damaging their neutrality.
• the city fell on the last assault: had at 2 of the points stated above happened differently( for example Giustiniani not injured and the ottomans not controlling the sea bay) most likely the city would have resisted. by other 2/3 days the Venetian and papal reinforcements would have arrived( they were in Negroponte when the city fell) bringing 15 Venetian galleys ready for war. considering that the ottomans lost against 3 genoese galleys + 1 Byzantines vessel full of supplies we can foresee a naval victory for the greco-Latins. The ottomans despite having a huge fleet, they had almost no naval experience, while genoese and Venetians were basically the rulers of the Mediterranean in naval abilities.

Now. after stating my points. lets start the pod.
the city survives what happens?
from might point of view, Mehmet has lost as his rivals would suggest " with his incompetence he managed to lose despite a 5/7:1 army size". If orhan is still alive, his prestige would instead be on the rise, "with his 600 loyal men he managed to defeat his incompetent and utterly dreamer cousin" would many say. A civil war would be under way and the ERE is on one of the side with possible lands and money as return.
another effect of the ottoman defeat is the possible sparkle of another Bulgarian rebellion( the crown prince is still alive) and possible Serbian intervention( Durad Brankovic was hesitant to help the Greek before the siege and stayed neutral/ottoman friendly, but an ottoman defeat won't leave him unmoved). Same goes for every Turkish tribe still independent.
in the best case scenario the ottomans will lose the European territories( the ERE takes almost all coastal territory) and orhan become sultan.
in the most realistic case scenario, mehmet wins the civil war at a great cost, but both the ERE and Serbian despotate manage to grab lands. the walls of Constantinople are repaired and in the next siege there will be more help from the west( mainly the Hungarians at this point).
as i stated before i agree that the days of the Roman empire stretching from Ljubljana to Cairo are definitely gone, but an ERE with the Megali idea border might still be possible.

what do you think? even if you disagree every comment is well accepted, after all it's a discussion thread.

 

[Carter I'm Yog]

Roman empire stretching from Ljubljana to Cario

Where is Cario?

 

[goumaister]

Where is Cario?

He means Cairo.

Well the Ottomans won't fall even with a civil war. I mean they have more resources than all the Balkan powers combined. Having even half those they still prevail cause of their better quality of units and professionalism. They have better cavalry and more of it. Better artillery for sieges and huge manpower reserves. Mehmed's grandfather also failed to take the City and he still kept everything under control. So the Ottomans are too big to fail yet. Only a successful Crusade could bump them and those don't have a good record till now.

On the other hand Mehmed was a very young ruler and he didn't have high legitimacy yet so maybe Candarlı Halil Pasa does convince some generals or nobles to assassinate Mehmed and that could lead to some turmoil. Cause you can't just take as a Sultan the guy who was fighting against you. Well either way some time to reform is the only thing that would come out of this affair till the Ottomans are ready to siege again.

 

[pls don't ban me]

He means Cairo.

Well the Ottomans won't fall even with a civil war. I mean they have more resources than all the Balkan powers combined. Having even half those they still prevail cause of their better quality of units and professionalism. They have better cavalry and more of it. Better artillery for sieges and huge manpower reserves. Mehmed's grandfather also failed to take the City and he still kept everything under control. So the Ottomans are too big to fail yet. Only a successful Crusade could bump them and those don't have a good record till now.

On the other hand Mehmed was a very young ruler and he didn't have high legitimacy yet so maybe Candarlı Halil Pasa does convince some generals or nobles to assassinate Mehmed and that could lead to some turmoil. Cause you can't just take as a Sultan the guy who was fighting against you. Well either way some time to reform is the only thing that would come out of this affair till the Ottomans are ready to siege again.

agreed, but it's not like the greeks will sit there and watch as the grim reaper is basically approaching them. not at least with Costantine XI.
the walls and the defenses would be the top priority. If the popes are smart enough and still push for the reunion of the churches, they'll also donate money to help rebuild,reinforce and garrison better.

 

[pls don't ban me]

Where is Cario?

sry, meant Cairo

 

[goumaister]

agreed, but it's not like the greeks will sit there and watch as the grim reaper is basically approaching them. not at least with Costantine XI.
the walls and the defenses would be the top priority. If the popes are smart enough and still push for the reunion of the churches, they'll also donate money to help rebuild,reinforce and garrison better.

Whatever they do they still don't have enough of anything to stop it themselves. The pope might even consider this a loss of money after a point and won't send as much. Also basing yourself on pope or in general westerner aid to survive you are not alive but on a comma waiting for death.

To me the best thing would be to take Athens as they as well were vassals so what is the loss to the Ottomans? Next a Greek campaign in the terrain that doesn't have a lot of supply limit and is limiting to cavalry as well as filled with mountain passes ripe for ambushes as Skanderbeg is demonstrating up north. War of attrition down there with an alliance with The Albanians, the Venetians, the Genoese and the Serbians and of course the Karamanids in the east. Only a coalition that large gives some manpower pool to match the Ottomans and it is quite improbable (Venetians and Genoese living together? That's madness!). And yet the Ottomans can defeat them all one by one , if they play it good and keep calm. They could lose as well but what I'm trying to say is that there is a 50% chances on each side so that would be a stuggle.

PS Not Greeks yet or atleast not only Greeks but Romans or Roman-Greeks

 

[Osman Aga]

So, this thread is probably one of the most, if not the most, re proposed from time to time, but i see every time almost everyone saying that Constantinople was doomed, an opinion to which i disagree.

While it's true that the ERE was to a point of utter disgrace there are some factor that might might enable the "empire" to survive and maybe recover ( not age of miracles level but more Avitus TL level).

• Çandarlı Halil Pascià II: the grand Vizier was an enemy of Mehmet de facto, and was against the conquest of Constantinople as he though it might cause more reaction from the christian world than what happened in OTL. From what we now he was for a status quo with the ERE in a vassalage status.
• Orhan Celebi, a cousin of Mehmet was amongst the defenders with 600 ottoman defector/mercenaries. in case of an Byzantine victory in the siege the prestige and reputation of Mehmet might fall so low( bolstered by Candarli for sure) to a level where orhan might even try a civil war, supported by the Byzantines in exchange for some… monetary reparations or border corrections.
• Giovanni Giustiniani: his fatal injury is what gave the ottomans a 100% victory chance in the last assault. he is one of the keys for the future of the city. Even Mehmet was amused by this men by trying to corrupt him and then commemorate him after his death.
• Loukas Notara: while it still not demonstrated and probably never will, for lack of documents, it is a recognized theory that he left opened the doors for the ottoman to enter the city. the reason why i support such theory is because mehmet was smart enough to kill him after the conquest and destroy the proofs of the betrayal in order to bolster his conquest of the city worlds desire. The reason why he would betray the empire was his own interests, he was the richest man of the Balkans and the war was hurting his capitals. he was also against the union of churches and even suggested to surrender the city and flee to peloponnese.( in a less serious tone: best PM ever).
• Golden Horn events: Despite managing to circumvent the port chain it was still there. if the attempt made by the Venetians to bring explosives and detonate the ottoman fleet had succeed, mehmet would have to start over again. Also the genoese on the other side in Pera, would be able to send again supplies without damaging their neutrality.
• the city fell on the last assault: had at 2 of the points stated above happened differently( for example Giustiniani not injured and the ottomans not controlling the sea bay) most likely the city would have resisted. by other 2/3 days the Venetian and papal reinforcements would have arrived( they were in Negroponte when the city fell) bringing 15 Venetian galleys ready for war. considering that the ottomans lost against 3 genoese galleys + 1 Byzantines vessel full of supplies we can foresee a naval victory for the greco-Latins. The ottomans despite having a huge fleet, they had almost no naval experience, while genoese and Venetians were basically the rulers of the Mediterranean in naval abilities.

Now. after stating my points. lets start the pod.
the city survives what happens?
from might point of view, Mehmet has lost as his rivals would suggest " with his incompetence he managed to lose despite a 5/7:1 army size". If orhan is still alive, his prestige would instead be on the rise, "with his 600 loyal men he managed to defeat his incompetent and utterly dreamer cousin" would many say. A civil war would be under way and the ERE is on one of the side with possible lands and money as return.
another effect of the ottoman defeat is the possible sparkle of another Bulgarian rebellion( the crown prince is still alive) and possible Serbian intervention( Durad Brankovic was hesitant to help the Greek before the siege and stayed neutral/ottoman friendly, but an ottoman defeat won't leave him unmoved). Same goes for every Turkish tribe still independent.
in the best case scenario the ottomans will lose the European territories( the ERE takes almost all coastal territory) and orhan become sultan.
in the most realistic case scenario, mehmet wins the civil war at a great cost, but both the ERE and Serbian despotate manage to grab lands. the walls of Constantinople are repaired and in the next siege there will be more help from the west( mainly the Hungarians at this point).
as i stated before i agree that the days of the Roman empire stretching from Ljubljana to Cairo are definitely gone, but an ERE with the Megali idea border might still be possible.

what do you think? even if you disagree every comment is well accepted, after all it's a discussion thread.

To recover in any sense, the Romans need to give up Constantinople and accept the offer of becoming the rulers of Morea and work from there. This wouldn't just be Morea, but may also include Attica with the town of Athens. The Despot of Morea will be a vassal of the Ottomans in the sense how Wallachia and Moldova were. As long as the Romans hold on to Constantinople there is literally zero chance for them to recover. The Ottomans have more resources than the Romans, they secured the Straits pretty much by building the Rumeli Fortress and at this point can starve the city to death until submission. What if they fail in 1453? They will try again in a decade or even less. The Ottomans can permit losing men, the Romans cannot.

Why would giving Constantinople be ideal for some sort survival? As long as the Romans own the town and have little to zero threat for the Ottomans, they will be viewed as an easy target and will be attacked by the same Sultan or the new Sultan. This isn't the Roman Empire of the 11th century where the Romans can still assemble power in the Balkans to defend a potential attack on Constantinople. This is the Roman Empire that doesn't own much more than the Fatih district of nowadays Istanbul and Morea. The Ottomans have surrounded them.
If they are the despots of Morea, the Ottomans have less reasons to go out on an all conquest spree in of Greece and focus on Serbia and Bosnia earlier, maybe even Syria and Eastern Anatolia. As despots of Morea they can wait out for a moment where they think the Ottomans are not in their strongest position and target their position in Thessaly and Epirus. Moldova and Wallachia have fought the Ottomans many times even when they were de jure vassals.

But... any recovery of the Romans in 1453 while holding Constantinople is pretty much a pipe dream. A crusade won't help as the Ottomans have made the Balkans their center of rule, and any Crusader Force they could assemble is not enough to drive the Ottomans away from the Balkans. They tried it in the period where the Ottomans had not yet consolidated their position in Bulgaria with Nicopolis and failed, with Bayezid continuing his siege of Constantinople. A Crusade, if successful at all, will not help the Romans outlive the Ottomans. It delays the Ottoman Conquest of the city. There is interest in conquering it since the era of Murad I and with Bayezid being the first to try it. If Mehmed II dies? No worries, his son Bayezid would take over at the age of 10. Considering how early Mehmed II started his siege at the age of 21, it won't be much more different for Bayezid either. Halil was old by the way, even if he outlives Mehmed he will likely die or be executed. A Sultan can have no rival for his rule, especially no Grand Vizier. Hence why Mehmed executed him.

Tl'dr: A restored Roman Empire in 1453 holding Constantinople that returns to Megali Idea borders is a pipe dream. It may work for professionals on EU IV but reality is different.

 

[BIZANTINUL]

Lets be realistic here: after the civil war of the 1340s the empire was dead. It managed to survive for a century due to external circumstances barele clinging to a precarious existence. In 1453 it would take a miracole to save the city. Mehmed had the best army in Europe at that time with a state of the art artilery and professional troops trained for warfare.

Constantinople had formidable walls but they had fallen into disrepair and were vulnerable to artilery. Its population was divided, in a sustained numeric downfall (50000 people were living in the city at the end) with a few hundred soldiers at the end

The Empire was led by an able soldier who managed to give the Empire one final blast of glory before the end , but he was from a family which squabbled for every scrap of territory even when the Turks were at the gate (there are notorious episodes of Andronikos IV or Ioannes VIII who plotted to usurp their fathers or Demetrios who wanted the throne for himself).

A crusade might have some effect (let remember that Huniadi managed to score some victories în the Balkans 10 years before) but the participation was not entuziaștii.it