Some folks like to point out that there isn't any opponent for the U.S. to fight, that today the U.S. military is, by any measure that matters, dominant to a point that is almost laughable. These people are right, for now. That will not continue to be the case. The USN is ALREADY too small to live up to tasking under the "two war" requirement, with virtually no hope of EVER altering that fact short of ASB intervention or the election of a reincarnated Teddy Roosevelt to the White House. There is a simple reason that the U.S. military is unchallenged, it is made to be that way. The day it isn't unchallengeable, someone WILL take advantage of that fact.
I want to start out by saying that I don't disagree with you completely. And I want to give a big thumbs up to whoever pointed out my gaffe about the active/passive sonar.
I just got done watching this C-Span show entitled "The Defense Meltdown," and it talked alot about what you're actually mentioning, but it wasn't until I read your post that I started thinking about the whole "two front war" requirement. That was designed, if I'm not mistaken, to fight something akin to World War II, but now reinforcing Europe in the event of a Soviet invasion while being capable of defending against subs and surface action groups in the Pacific (or at worst, simultaneously reinforcing South Korea).
But since the fall of the USSR, it seems like the definition of "war" in that "two front war" strategy has changed. At the moment, the United States military is fighting two insurgency campaigns which I'm fairly sure weren't what the Pentagon thought of in the 60's or 70's when they designed this "two front war" force structure.
We've built ourselves to the point where we can place a strike anywhere on the planet in a few hours, and there are people on this board, I think, who seem to think that any country with a carrier wants our job.
I don't have any doubt that the United States could fight and win a mechanized war on the Korean peninsula, or in any one of half a dozen other places.
I'm going to get lambasted for this, I think, but I don't think we'll have to fight any mechanized wars anytime soon, with the outside exception of Korea (and I'm REALLY sure that won't happen).
It's those smaller, messier wars I'm less sure about. And those are the two-front wars we seem to get into.
These are the kinds of wars that can't be solved by RO-RO ships and surface action groups.
And as an American who's grew up in the late-Reagan/early-Clinton administrations (yeah, Bush was there but we mostly forget him, Gulf War or not. He was just Reagan Years 8-12), it's hard to change my mindset.
We like having this huge, monolithic enemy. I miss the Evil Empire. They threw good parades!
But Al-Qaeda doesn't have that. Some times it feels a bit stupid trying to fight a war against guys dirty Santa Claus beards hiding in caves. We're America! We need something bigger!
So what do we do? We make one. North Korea. Iraq. Iran. Hell, it's getting desperate, now. I've even heard Cuba and Venezuela batted around.
But that's just why I think there's some of that "there coming!" tone. I suppose I just couldn't keep going in some clinical tone like we weren't all talking about multli-billion dollar systems designed to tear apart young people.