While most potted histories of the Second Russo-German War focus on the titanic struggles of the Northern front, many tend to overlook the importance of fighting in the Ottoman Empire, and even more frequently the considerable contribution of the Ottoman Empire to the Allied cause.
1944 found the Empire exhausted by years of brutal war in Thrace and mired in self-doubt over the losses the Monaco conference had imposed on a country that – with some justification - considered itself militarily undefeated. Disappointment with Germany and Austria-Hungary was rife and a significant party in the cabinet supported an alliance with Russia, even at the price of losing the Caucasus. In the end, the Porte decided to pursue a stance of friendly neutrality that would respect both Germany's position as foremost oil customer and Russia as the protector of the Orthodox Christian population. It needless to repeat here that this policy proved an abject failure.
It is doubtful whether such a stance would have been feasible even if the Russian government had been acting in good faith. As it was, it only served to delay the inevitable and improve the initial position of the enemy. Russian money and weapons emboldened national insurgents in the remaining Ottoman Balkans, troops took position in treaty cantonments throughout the Caucasus to prepare the assault, and intelligence agents sought to foment unrest throughout the country. As a desperate Vienna general staff indicated that they could not hope to handle both the Balkans and a likely Ruthenian front, Berlin found itself locked in an internecine struggle between advocates of an early intervention hoping to draw the Empire to their side and advocates of neutralising the southern flank with the expected help of the British and their Persian satellite. In the end, the shocking success of the Russian army in the northern offensive meant that no troops or equipment for a possible Ottoman offensive could be spared in the autumn of 1944. The Sultan's forces were left to face Moscow's offensive on their own.
In contrast to the military debacle of these months, the diplomatic lightning offensive that Berlin launched in the course of the year bore unexpectedly rich fruit. Russian intelligence had been confident that the ability to promise territorial gains at Ottoman expense would ensure allies in the region, but trust in Moscow's word had all but evaporated. The Shah, though known to be eyeing the Shia Arab areas of Mesopotamia as possible additions to his realm, declared a strict neutrality that in effect boiled down to a hostile stance against Russia. Given Tehran's dependence on London, this did not come as a great surprise. The decision in Athens and Sofia to also embrace neutrality was a greater blow to Russian intentions. Though Serbia never made an official declaration to this effect, it made it known through diplomatic channels that it had no intention of joining hostilities. Thus Russia's hoped-for Orthodox coalition came to nothing, to the great relief of the Italian government which is still widely believed to have taken a hand in this outcome.
The autumn of 1944 saw the beginning of an undeclared war undertaken by Russian troops and secret agents across the north of the Empire. Incidents of sectarian violence, some doubtlessly real, many more manufactured, served to justify interventions designed to secure neuralgic points and paralyse Ottoman government. On 19 October, a column of Russian motor rifles left their cantonment in Van bound for Mosul with the aim to secure the railway to Baghdad and Basra for a future invasion. Another significant force was despatched from Kars a week later to interdict any possible Ottoman moves from Erzerum against the exposed flank of a Russian thrust into Mesopotamia. On 12 November, the Russian cantonment commander at Baku disarmed the Ottoman garrison and police and declared he was temporarily placing the oil facilities under Russian control as surety against compensation claims forwarded on behalf of Armenian and Georgian victims of persecution. While the sultan protested, a force of two armoured divisions crossed the border, moving along treaty corridors to secure the pipeline to Batumi and its port. Declaring war, at this point, was a formality, but the tenuous pretense of neutrality lasted until March.
Despite the considerable gains made in the face of often intimidated, confused local officials and second-tier military forces left without orders or leadership, the Russians did not have everything their way even in the very early stages of the attack. One key reason for this was the conduct of troops and administrators under the command of General Semyon Kotilov. Kotilov had gained a reputation for unswerving loyalty, bravery, and audacious operations, but nobody had ever accused him of diplomacy, temperance, or foresight. As such he would probably have been better placed on the German front where these qualities were not much needed. Placed in command of Treaty Forces East, he quickly proceeded to alienate even sympathetic Azeris and Chechens before moving south into majority Kurdish areas. Russian intelligence had cultivated a nascent national movement for years and as their troops entered Mosul, they called on its leaders to convene. Yet within two months of their triumphal entry, Kurdish guerillas throughout the region were ambushing Russian convoys and slitting the throats of soldiers and collaborators. The reasons for the is policy failure were complex, rooted not least in a complete misunderstanding of the role political religion played in the Ottoman sphere, but Kotilov's bone-headed insistence on imposing what amounted to colonial government with the help of Armenian 'legions' contributed greatly to the speed with which Moscow's hopes were dashed.
In purely military terms, the first line of Russian forces were successful beyond the wildest hopes of their planners. Armoured spearheads reached Diyarbakir and Urfa before the end of the year. The Baghdad railway was cut, much of the oil production capacity under Russian control, and a victory-drunk Kotilov ordered operations across the Syrian desert in the confident expectation to cripple the Empire's railway infrastructure. In theory, the idea was sound. The Damascus, Hijaz and Port Said railways were vulnerable to interdiction in the sparsely populated regions beyond the coastal hills. In practice, it turned out that the distances involved across hostile terrain, increasingly away from the carefully prepared logistical network Russia had woven across the Caucasus, entirely defeated the technical and martial capabilities of the invaders. Even the fact that Kotilov, probably under the influence of French intelligence, adopted a far more conciliatory attitude towards the Arab population did not help. This, too, was owed to a momentous misunderstanding: The Arab nationalists who Paris had been cultivating for decades were mostly based in cities, modernist intellectuals and often Syrian and Palestinian Christians. The men Kotilov hoped to gain as auxiliaries were of a different calibre. They might have been willing to join him in return for immediate promises of political power and independent kingship, but he had nothing like that to give. The Russian thrust petered out, not in a climactic battle, but in a hundred humiliating retreats, abandoning broken-down chars and surrendering starving outposts to local militias. In a final bitter irony, it was lack of winter gear that accounted for massive casualties in the Diyarbakir force. STAVKA, of all people, had underestimated how cold January could be in what they considered 'desert country'.
Nonetheless, the scale of defeat was staggering. Surrender was mooted as a reasonable course of action in the dark days of December, and the tale immortalised on stage and screen today that Kemal Pasha at one point physically threatened the the sultan with his pistol to prevent such diplomatic overtures being made may actually be true. It was, ultimately, the very success of the Russian advance that turned the tide against them. Facing the imminent loss of one of its main sources of oil, Berlin took the dive. Promises of subsidies, arms, and troops steeled the resolve of the council and led to a declaration of war on 2 March 1945. The road to victory would be an arduous and bloody one, but the prospect felt real for the first time.