Es Geloybte Aretz - a Germanwank

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True, the country has been devastated and drained by the war, but it has also been galvanized and organized by it too.

If this had not been the case in OTL, Poland would have become an SSR.

They are heavily beholden to German investors, but also have served side by side with the Fritzes in the most modern warfare and they will bring back updated mechanical skills to their civilian work.

Not quite sure what you mean here. Does serving on the frontlines bring such significant mechanical skills? Or do you refer to guest workers and people working on whatever industrial plants Germany constructed in Poland during the war?

The Germans are investing, and have done so, and Poles have been building up modern industry faster than the Russians tore down the old stuff. Postwar I foresee them pulling much closer to German standards of living than they could OTL up to 1939.

On the other hand Poland won't have its best-developed western territories which provided the country with most of its coal, steel and iron, as well as technologies and expertise which were vital in developing the remaining territories. Or the Galician oil fields. There's also a problem with investments - Germany will only invest in what it wants. And after the war, will it want to keep investing in what will widely be seen as competition for its own industry?

They have a more intelligent and functional government and something like real democracy bids fair to stay in power.

Would the chances of this happening really be greater then in OTL though?
 
For other reasons, your third link is of great interest to me too! Unfortunately I can't read German at all well. I can copy and paste text from at least some PDFs but it seems the Fraktur font gets garbled when I do, so Google Translate is no help.

Glancing through it I can see that indeed there is talk of airship travel here. I recognized a reference to Dr. Durr, who was Zeppelin's chief engineer/designer.

This being a 1909 publication, it is a bit premature, though a decade hence an airship line from Berlin to Baghdad would be quite feasible, given the political right of way and suitable base infrastructure.

I always thought "Berlin to Baghdad" referred to a railway scheme however. That, once fully built, would be far more valuable. (Don't know how it would cross the Dardanelles Strait though. Building a bridge would probably be somewhat beyond early 20th century capability I'd think, and it would interfere with shipping too. A tunnel would be even harder to build. A ferry would probably be the way to go). Trains can stop at little stations on the way and not lose too much time, and in an era where passenger trains had right of way a modern fast train could be very fast indeed. Berlin to Baghdad is valuable not so much to connect one terminus with the other (especially in a era that did not yet realize how much oil can be found under Mesopotamia!) but for all the options for travel between intermediate points.

An airship as I have felt obliged to point out, is not something that can be brought to moor at an intermediate stop and payloads exchanged quickly. My grand notion of huge airships accommodating a series of hook-on airplanes introduces something like the quick-change capabilities of a train to the steady, majestic progress of an airship--assuming that shifting winds do not obligate the airship to divert hundreds of miles off its nominal great-circle course!

To be sure, the relatively small airships Zeppelin could make in 1909 were suited to much shorter ranges than say the famous "Africa ship" of WWI. From 1909 to 1914, DELAG operations flew over 34,000 passengers...but none of them were passengers in the sense that they paid to be taken from one point to another on a scheduled flight. They were in fact joyriders, people who wanted to see the world from above, who wanted to experience Germany's most advanced technology first hand, to be able to boast of having done these things.

Here are statistics for a Zeppelin typical of this period:
LZ 13
hull number LZ 13
Type G
designation Hansa
Length in m 148
Diameter in m 14
Volume in cubic meters 18,700
number of cells 18
Weight in kg 15,400
Payload in kgs 6,330
motor number 3
Engine output in hp 170
Total output in PS 510
1. ride 07/30/1912 01.08.1914
Off-duty 07/29/1914 August 1916
owner DELAG German Army / Navy
commander Mr WE Doerr
Mr. A. Heinen
Shipyard Friedrichshafen
Speed in m / s 22.2
remark - 399 trips for DELAG
- total 44,437 km
(Translated from German, original can be found in link to LZ-13 text above)
1912_Hansa_jpl.jpg


I chose Hansa as an example because if we consider that the wartime pressures have somehow greatly accelerated the rate of progress at the Zeppelin works, so that roughly triple the rate of progress happens that did in years of peace OTL, then by the end of this war in 1908, the firm ought to be roughly at a par with OTL 1912--Hansa having first flown in that year OTL.

OTL when the author of the link prompting this post dreamed of global German air service, ships rather less advanced than this were the inspiration ready to hand.

At a maximum airspeed of 22.2 m/sec, in the ballpark of 43 knots, this airship is just barely getting up to minimum speeds that empirically were found to be needed to handle the more severe but not uncommon contrary winds. To operate reliably it needs more like 60 knots, which would require nearly 3 times the power with this sort of drag, and at that airspeed would need to be stronger by nearly a factor of 2! Its payload of over six tons however would put any 1912 airplane in the shade. However it clearly is not up to a transoceanic run, probably not even up to a ferry run across the Baltic to Stockholm--she did visit Copenhagen once however.

A ship like this is simply not up to the task of regular passenger service in the sense of filling a niche that is irreplaceable and therefore reliable. What will it take?

Now look at a ship like this instead:

59_1.jpg




Here we see something a lot more like what we imagine when we think "Zeppelin;" the resemblance to the final generation of the most advanced rigid airships is much closer. This ship flew OTL just two years after the maiden flight of the Hansa above. We see a number of radical improvements at a glance: a much improved streamline shape; engines mounted on the hull and directly driving pusher props in more or less streamlined engine cars; a cruciform tail instead of the older box kite type. On top, observe 6 bumps--these are the Venturi hoods of an internal ventilation system that gently circulates air through the interior, sweeping up small deposits of hydrogen leaking from the hydrogen gas bags and venting it out of the ship before it can accumulate to dangerous levels. Also there are internal walkways inside the hull giving crew access to the interior, so they can observe the state of the gas cells and other structural status, and make adjustments or repairs in flight.

This however is not a Zeppelin; it is the work of Dr. Johann Schuette, at the Schuette-Lanz works in Mannheim. He sold this ship to the Austrian army and as its advantages proved out hoped to take over the rigid airship business from Zeppelin. Unfortunately for him however, the OTL Great War led to the German government pooling patents, and Zeppelin was free to incorporate all his above innovations without paying royalties. As a result, a typical Zeppelin of the final war year looks much like this, enjoying all the advantages Schuette hoped to be paid for developing--and more.

There is another detail of the interior of the SL-2 that should be mentioned. All Zeppelins, from the first failed attempt to the final product, used some form of aluminum for their rigid members. SL-2 did not--instead Schuette had developed a form of plywood. All of his company's constructions used this wood product. Why use wood when aluminum was already available? The catch is, the early Zeppelins used pure aluminum, which is light, but not very strong. Compared to pure aluminum, Schuette's plywood members had a superior strength to weight ratio!

Again, bad timing for Schuette--by 1909 a German firm had developed, patented and published details on a new alloy of aluminum, copper, maganese and magnesium they called Duralumin. Somewhat denser than pure Al, it was however much stronger, and once Zeppelin adopted it, the weight of the rigid frames came down considerably. Meanwhile, in actual flight trials, the SL plywoods proved vulnerable to deterioration caused by humidity--the wood would soften, warp, and worst of all the glue would fail. The wood was superior to pure Al but not Duralumin, and would fail completely in conditions aluminum took well. (Actually Duralumin would corrode, but a coating of pure aluminum generally would prevent this from becoming a problem).

Had Schuette switched over to Duralumin immediately instead of sticking with wood, perhaps his products would have stolen the show from Zeppelin. But I suspect the Count had too much momentum by 1914 OTL; had the Great War been averted somehow so the firm could not simply steal the patents legally, I doubt the courts would uphold attempts to enforce them regarding the aerodynamic shape or even the cantilevered symmetrical control surfaces. There could be other approaches to achieving suitable internal ventilation too.

ITTL on the other hand, Dr. Schuette presumably exists, but he did not begin his efforts to surpass Zeppelin's design flaws until witnessing a failure in 1908.

Conceivably he could instead set out to make his improvements upon observing the flaws evident in ships like Hansa, but it would take him many years to realize them if OTL is any guide. Also besides the plywood, his first design (which did incorporate plywood as well) used a very different structural approach, arranging the rigid members in a diamond form. It was quite beautiful actually:
59_2.jpg


But unfortunately it turned out to be more draggy than he figured, presumably because the air flow across the diagonal members generated a lot more turbulence than he figured it would. See also how the two engine cars are suspended below with no rigid attachment; he hoped that this would help protect the lightly built hull from sudden shocks, as a car impacting the ground would simply cause the suspension member lines to go slack thus relieving the hull of their weight. A pretty good plan I think, but it would prevent the evolution of airships incorporating elements into the hull volume thus lowering drag.

To be sure, as long as airships must be lifted with hydrogen instead of helium, some elements such as engines must be kept out of the hull anyway. OTL LZ-14, Hansa's immediate successor, sold to the German Navy, sought to lower drag by fairing over the gap between suspended elements and the hull, with the result that during a storm with rapidly changing pressures, sparks from the engine got taken up and wafted into the hull where hydrogen venting due to sudden rises in altitude from the cells' emergency valves was set off, resulting in a fire that swept the length of the ship and causing the loss of all hands in the crash--this was the first incident in which lives were lost related to Zeppelins OTL.

So, although the war and the Kaiser's enthusiastic personal support combined with newly evolved conventional wisdom that sees Zeppelins maintaining a lead over other aircraft all combine to have accelerated the Zeppelin design I am guessing by some 4 years, the way forward is not so straight and clear. OTL the Zeppelin firm under the Count and Dr Ludwig Durr running design was rather conservative. Here with the push for wartime improvement and the enthusiastic Kaiser looking over their shoulders we might hope their thinking is a bit more bold and flexible, but realistically it is going to be some years before they have airships fast enough, strong enough, well designed enough and big enough to inaugurate scheduled revenue passenger services.

I do think though they can and will do this. OTL once Zeppelin got the support of military procurement funding, they immediately sought to develop civil applications in parallel. Hansa-like ships are certainly good enough for the revenue joyriding DELAG profited from OTL immediately. Meanwhile, possible early routes once they get some ships going faster include ferry routes--an airship is faster than a surface vessel, so flights to London from Amsterdam or Bremen, flights to Stockholm from Berlin, politics permitting flights from Trieste to Rome might all be in the cards within just a few years, on ships maybe twice the mass of Hansa and in some ways more resembling SL-2. Also, although airships are poor competition for a well developed rail network, Germany and Austria-Hungary have just incorporated vast new territories of client states formerly under Russian rule; these lands are much poorer in rail kilometers per square km, and what rails they have are Russian gauge. The prospects for overland point to point flights might then be temporarily improved until new construction can catch the region up. (Also there are cargoes that can benefit from bypassing surface transport; if advanced airships capable of keeping station amid shifting winds can be developed a permanent niche might open up).

By 1914 or maybe earlier, something should exist that can cross the Atlantic carrying revenue passengers.

I don't know about Berlin to Baghdad; that is mostly overland and railroads or if we delay enough, automobile/truck highways should take care of it.

OTOH links to German East Africa are definitely something that ought to happen; it would be most sensible I think to go from Trieste or some other Dalmatian port over the Med to the Suez canal thence coastwise along eastern Africa. However, if air links to the Black Sea are somehow favored, going south across it, across Anatolia and to Baghdad on the way to the Persian Gulf and on to East Africa that way might be possible, assuming a friendly regime in Turkey and Mesopotamia.
 
Hello Shevek,

I always thought "Berlin to Baghdad" referred to a railway scheme however. That, once fully built, would be far more valuable. (Don't know how it would cross the Dardanelles Strait though. Building a bridge would probably be somewhat beyond early 20th century capability I'd think, and it would interfere with shipping too. A tunnel would be even harder to build. A ferry would probably be the way to go).

It was doable - just not affordable for the Ottoman government.

In fact, there was a serious proposal for a suspension bridge to Ottoman Sultan Abdul Hamid II by the Bosphorus Railroad Company in 1900, which included a rail link between the continents.

The present day Bosporus Bridge (which is an ideal and likely site for a bridge) is 5,118 feet long; the Forth Bridge in Scotland (built 1882-1890) is a cantilever bridge that's over 8,000 ft long, and it gives 150 feet of clearance. That's only half that of the Bosporus Bridge, but plenty for most shipping of the day (though the Turks would likely want something with more clearance; the big ocean liners were reaching that height by this point). Either way, bridges over comparable waterways were being built by that point.
 
I finally read all 332 pages of this, and I must say I have been blown away by how good this story is.

All the changes and different outcomes no matter how unlikely are very easy to accept. All the point of view parts show that the people in question as believable heroes in their own stories rather than obviously evil madly cackling villains, madmen and saints.

The tech development especially is well done. It does not fall into the trap of having a high-tech super-weapon change the fate of the war. We see early examples of tanks, technicals, aerial battles etc, but are also shown that in the big scheme of things the technology really isn't there yet to make a big difference. Developing such stuff will take time. That is realism.

I guess the new technologies will be ready by the next war when the militarises of the world who have been preparing to re-fight the last war will learn that everything has changed and they will have to start all over again figuring out how to make stuff work.

I am curious to see how things will play out.

On the science front people like Albert Einstein and Marie Curie should be developing their ideas in the background and with the way things are may return to do science in their native Germany and Poland now that the war is over.

Herrmann Oberth is a young man and might soon start to become interested in the idea of rockets. Konstantin Tsiolkovsky may not have survived the war, with the losses Russia took and the military likely listened to him even less than they did in the original timeline thanks to his polish ancestry. He may just leave Russia for some place more open to his ideas.

People like Von Braun and Zuse will be born in the next few years and grow up in a very different Germany that may be much more receptive of their ideas if they follow the same paths as in the original timeline.

Over the next few decades many scientist and inventors who would have left Germany and Europe due to religious persecution and economic reasons may decide to stay in a new Germany and central Europe that is both more open to new scientific ideas and to Jews and to a lesser extend other minorities.

It looks like there likely won't be a German-physics concept that excludes newly fanged ideas by often Jewish scientists, there also won't be the backlash against modern art as being un-german and 'perverted art'. This may lead to all sorts of interesting things in the long run.

Someone a few dozen pages back mentioned comics and the tradition of Wilhelm Bush and I realized that comic books in the world will be very different in the latter half of the 20th century. Many of the early pioneers of super-hero comics were of Jewish origin and descended of people who escaped eastern Europe in the first half of the 20th century. Many of their families might never move to America and others may just move back to the new promised land.

Jerome Segalovich and Josef Shusterowich may create a comic about an *Übermensch* and Hymie Simon and Jacob Kurtzberg may create a patriotic character named *Hauptman Deutschland* and Stanley Lieber may come up with all sorts of beloved characters. Early superhero comics were a very Jewish thing in our world (the only major early character without Jewish involvement was Wonder Woman).

Another thing that has been mentioned are the cross cultural influence of the black Americans hired by the Germans to deal with the mules they imported. Their songs and culture may have some effect on the German troops they interacted with, but I am more fearful for the cultural contamination in the other direction.

Surely at some point some of the blacks and the Jews must have compared notes and figured out that the sort of pogroms the Jews had had to suffer though by the Russians were not to dissimilar to the occasional 'race riots' that happened in parts of the US during this time. The fact that many of the Jews now had taken up arms to shoot Russians may really, really give some people all the worst ideas, especially as the blacks appear to have been quite a bit more active in the war than was originally intended.

Having these blacks now return home and tell their communities of their experiences may really lead to trouble for the US in the near future. Especially since it seems that the US in this timeline, may end up a lot more racist than in our timeline. The lack of outside enemy to focus on in wartimes will likely lead to more politicians feeling free to look for enemies on the inside. A more divisive political landscape is probably not good for ethnic minorities.

Germans of current point in this timeline are bound to still be incredible politically incorrect bigots and racists by 21st century standards, but compared to the original timeline they are bound to be much better on average or at least have the target of their prejudices shifted elsewhere, which I guess makes them saint by comparison in many ways.

There is a lot of potential for things to go very right and very wrong in the future and it will be interesting to see what happens.
 
Berlin, July 2


Sieg des Polentums!





What remains to be seen is whether anyone on Berlin has the courage to make the emperor understand the scale of the loss this peace treaty imposes on Germany and Germandom. It defies credibility that the supposedly wise heads of our foreign ministry, men who, we are assured, understand the business of international relations, concluded these terms in ignorance of their consequence. The only reasonable assumption is thus that they know and approve of what they did, and the degree to which the Reichstag and the ministries are already overrun with Jews, Catholics and Socialists leaves one to fear the worst.


It is not that one objects to the sacrifices the German people has been called on to make in the cause of its global significance. Sacrifices, made in the right cause, ennoble the maker and obligate futurity. A cost of two million lives of our best manhood lost or blighted, at a price of more than a hundred billion gold marks mortgaged to the future of our entire nation, would be worth embracing for the prospect of a true German Empire of two hundred million spanning the continent of Europe. For what the government has given us, it is too high. More than too high, it represents by all informed accounts nothing less than the suicide of the German nation, its departure from the ranks of world powers and ultimately, its descent into pointless mediocrity. This is the stakes, this is what we risk today unless the madness of humanitarian delusions is ended and Germany’s right to the fruit of its victories asserted. Failing to do this will mean offending against the iron law of nature that governs the history of all nations: that the stronger asserts his right. To allow the Jew and the Pole, the Finn and the Balt to appropriate our victory by trickery and deceit is a sin not only against common sense and good politics, it is a crime against untold future generations of our race who are robbed of the soil to grow and the space to expand the power that is their birthright. All decent German men should be appalled and ashamed that such a thing could happen.


(Vossische Zeitung)
 
Killed and wounded it looks like.

I dunno. That's a full third of OTL's German casualties. Seems reasonable to me; it would suggest, if casualties mirrored OTL, ~700k dead, 700k maimed and disabled, and 700k wounded in some capacity, which AFAIK reasonably mirrors OTL Eastern Front (and TTL war went a lot better for Russia in many places).

The Vossische Zeitung was a very liberal one. I severely doubt they would have written such an article.

Are we talking democratic liberal or liberal national here? If the former, you might have a point, otherwise, I can still imagine that even Liberal Nationals might be a bit appalled at what appears at first glance to be the case that Germany sacrificed millions of lives and billions of marks for apparently, nothing. The inveigles against Jews and Catholics are not even necessarily out of character, von Treitschke and Mommsen were known to have made such utterances from time to time and both were affiliated at some point with the Liberal Nationals.
 
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