Effects of a long-termly disunited Germany / independent East Germany?

[Chörnyj Orel]

Okay, let's suppose that - after WWII - the allies agreed about that Germany (of the borders of Dec. 31, 1937) must have been portioned in (at least) two different countries, let's say for the next 100 years. The eastern chunk of former Germany (otl GDR plus the entiretly of Berlin and maybe an eastern border further east (maybe as well as a slightly different border to the west) as you can see on my map further below) is a Soviet puppet state, like in OTL. Maybe with a Soviet-driven developement of an own identity, for example by giving the country's name something like "People's Republic of Prussia", inventing an own flag for that country, etc.. Like in OTL the 1989-turnaround takes place, but now the allies make clear that a reunified Germany is not wanted and will not be happen for decades. So the eastern - now democratic, republican - part of Germany undergoes an own developement, comparable to other central European ex-eastern bloc-countries like Poland, Hungary, Czech Rep., etc..


My question now is... how will this situation effect different areas of everyday-life, like
- internationial diplomacy and policy? Where do you think will East Germany (Republic of Prussia?) position itself? Completely western, or more on Russia's side, or will it take a "moderator-role" between East and West? How will be the relations with Poland? Will the country also develope EU-sceptical policies in the 2010s, like Hungary and Poland did in OTL?
- West and East German society and how both compatriots see each other? Will there be a (both-sided) feeling of "hey, they over there are people of us!" and a mutual sympathy, or will there be a mutual antipathy with both sides making jokes about the other group, or will it be something like we have in OTL Germany, where East Germans are seen as part of the German people but there's still a "wall in the heads" of both West- and East Germans even after 30 years since the turnaround?
- official relation between West and East Germany - will they work hand in hand and hope for a reunification in a farther future or will both countries drift apart and their different developements will reinforce the division?
- how other Europeans (and maybe peoples from other continents) see the fact of there being two Germanies and how will they act on it?
- pop culture?


I do not want to know how such a long-termed German division is doable or how likely it is. I want to know, IF this happened, how will this effect, most realisticly.

 

[Lalli]

I don't think that East Germany would be much more viable. Even OTL East Germany was economically bancrupted and it suffered from severe demographics problems when young people moved to west. That Germany would still face same problems. Probalby being more viable it would need whole or at least most of Silesia and perhaps bit more of Pomerania. Schleswig-Holstein could be good too. Otherwise Allies must either allow earlier unification or then somehow support economy of East Germany.

 

[CactusCartocratus]

I would imagine the politics of this country would be somewhat right wing, after all the AFD is strongest in eastern Germany. It would be a somewhat flawed democracy with in the 2010s and 20s an anti immigration eurosceptic right wing government like Poland and Hungary. It would definitely still be a part of the EU and NATO though. I would also see it having good relations with Russia even now kinda like Hungary especially since IOTL Germany has been friendly with Russia over the past decade and the German right and left parties in eastern Germany are pro Russian. With no integration into West Germany the economy would be worse off tho with EU funds not that bad and I’d imagine West Germany would donate a bit on their own. Without integration with the western part much more of the Eastern European post-communist mentality and cultural influence would be preserved.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I made this thread and @AMF basically wrote an entire timeline within it about what if East Germany stayed independent.

East Germany without communism

Could there have been any reason for East and West Germany to remain separate even following the fall of communism in Europe?

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[Drizzt]

how will this effect, most realisticly.

Easy: As soon as the wall falls, millions of young people with any useful skills head West over the next few years. Once people figure out, that even without any marketable skills you can still live a better live of basic welfare in the West than employed in the East, the country virtually empties out. Eventually this leaves only gouvernment bureocrats and retirees with no one to pay for their salaries and pensions (or grow food, take care of sick people, or make anything useful, etc etc) left. Some time before that happens, the treaty banning reunification will be dropped by the Allies, lest a humanitarian disaster develop and their relationship with Germany be poisoned forever.

Remember: According to the West German Constitution all East Germans were considered citizens of the FRG. Not even the most Left Wing Useful Idiot Communist Sympathizing Gouvernment could have forcibly stopped them from coming and probably would have gotten valkyried, if they tried issuing orders to do so nonetheless. The only thing keeping people in the East German workers paradise was East German armed border guards willing and able to shoot anyone trying to leave. Remove that and the GDR is doomed.

 

[Casting Crown]

I don't think that East Germany would be much more viable. Even OTL East Germany was economically bancrupted and it suffered from severe demographics problems when young people moved to west. That Germany would still face same problems. Probalby being more viable it would need whole or at least most of Silesia and perhaps bit more of Pomerania. Schleswig-Holstein could be good too. Otherwise Allies must either allow earlier unification or then somehow support economy of East Germany.

Why is that always so, "Prussia" is bigger than Benelux and little Luxembourg does just fine.

 

[ValdoreWorks]

This is an interesting premise that I’ve spent a a lot of thoughts on, in part because I explore th scenario in my project’s side TL, in part because I’m from the region in question, so I’ll be sharing some.

Before we start, it should be noted that the 1989 demonstrations were originally primarily about free travel, democracy and the end of the one party surveillance state. Reunification at first was one of the many goals that only some subfactions were demanding, either because well that was their main argument or because they deemed it should be at least discussed as part of the whole start of a new age thing.
The reunification demands eventually gained momentum as we all know and additionally became a political possibility thanks to Kohl’s campaign towards it, but the aforementioned developments show that you don’t necessarily need a republic of Prussia or a territorially bigger East Germany and that perhaps a PoD as late as around September-October 1989 could be enough for an alternative course in what demands are prioritized in the agenda.


Now to economics. I disagree with the (unfortunately widespread) notion that a democratic East Germany staying independent would’ve become some mongolian wasteland within 10 years. Of course, mass emigration will still mess up our future significantly but I’d say it would still be comparable to irl’s developments.
Why?

Firstly, it was arguably much easier for an OTL east german in the 1990s to leave for the west (same citizenship, etc) than someone would’ve with an east german passport, even if west german immigration laws favor east germans. This may not sound like much but the same citizenship is an inherent job market advantage over other non-westgerman foreigners, it also gifted some of the highest quality passport across europe and this has certainly opened opportunities for many people that wouldn’t have had if they’d legally be a non-westgerman.

Secondly, a significant part of the east german economic potential was (either due to malice or incompetence, but that’s still up to debate) unnecessarily gutted thanks to the Treuhandanstalt and predatory capitalism, where factories working perfectly fine were closed because they “weren’t competitive enough for the global market” or because they were simply given to their west german competitors by the TLG.
Of course much of the equipment/concrete substance was extremely decrepit, but so was Poland’s, Czechia’s or the Baltics' and they could fix it too. Also many of the gutted production facilities were for local supply chains rather than exports so applying 90s neoliberal global trade standards to judge if they’ve got a right to exist missed the point of them.

Thirdly, west german money would’ve still flowed into the east after the revolutions. Maybe not as part of a solidarity tax (though certainly still plausible to some extent, think like a special version of development aids), but because east germany would’ve been a prime location to outsource low skilled west german jobs (truck drivers, amazon warehouses, construction and so on) similar to how it has happened irl to poland (both pre and post-EU entry) where I think a good comparison to how such an east german economy might look like is to look at its western voivoideships. Of course there’s more to an economy than just low wage truck drivers and investments would also be done in other sectors, but it’s a good example that the region would still be useful in some way, perhaps already because of its location, being the crossroads of the western and postsoviet economies.

While this would be advantageous to both west germans (since it’s basically outsourced low wage workers that additionally speak german natively) as well as to east germans (eventually evolving to an economy not unlike Czechia’s/Czechoslovakia’s or Poland’s with many West German investments), I feel like it would’ve in return worsened inter german relations to a considerable amount. The low skilled, “stupid” Eastie truck driver/construction worker versus the arrogant Westie rolling over in his Merc, all these kinds of stereotypes would perhaps persist or get amplified as opposed to OTL’s decline of them. Especially if things like wage differences don’t level out as fast and thoroughly as they did in OTL (which is still big even in 2023).

One additional, often overlooked aspect is West Berlin because people tend to also just see it as a shape on a map that gets unified. But it would actually be pretty complicated since you can’t exactly let it stay as a west german exclave and eternally divide the city entwine, but at the same time giving away territory to other countries and stripping 1.4 million West Berliners of their West German citizenship (or of their financial support/other factors assuming the passport situation gets resolved in some way, perhaps through double citizenship) would’ve not exactly been uncontroversial.
In my TL it’s solved by making West Berlin a hong kong style autonomous canton in 1995 but I’m not sure how realistic that would be, I mostly did it because it sounded interesting.

I know these thoughts don’t exactly answer your questions about 2010s politics but I think they could be a good base for forming such an alternate 2010s culture. I think it could push east germany towards the Višegrad group ideologically, but theories about that would probably make this post even more cluttered, so I’ll leave it to another day (or user).

 

[Ökosozialdemokrat]

Lausitz-Niederschlesien would have to include the Sorbian minority in Politics, perhaps the Domowina in the state parliament with guaranteed includation like the SSW in Schleswig-Holstein, cause all Sorbians live in that area.
I think too that the Republik Preußen would be like Hungary in Politics, with an CDU-AfD-Free Voters fusion called "Treue- Der Bürgerbund" (an allusion to the Fidesz Party in Hungary )or "Bürgerlich Preußische Volkspartei" in charge and Romania in Demographics, with Polish and Sorbian minorities and slightly less immigrants, preferably high-skilled from East Asia (Japan especially) and Eastern Europe. Maybe with a football crack as Ministerpräsident like in Hungary too, the in OTL current President of the NOFV Hermann Winkler of Saxony would be a perfect Orban-expy as Head of Government.

 

[ValdoreWorks]

Lausitz-Niederschlesien would have to include the Sorbian minority in Politics, perhaps the Domowina in the state parliament with guaranteed includation like the SSW in Schleswig-Holstein, cause all Sorbians live in that area.

This doesn't necessarily have to be the case as it's missing some details regarding the situation in 1989 - which is that in regards to Sorbian minority rights, the GDR's Domowina was actually more pro-status quo, favoring the system set up by the SED (which was quite extensive - though they still failed to reverse or slow the decline of native speakers and they also technically weren't recognized de jure as a minority) whilst the sorbian national committee was the one more radical with their demands. The Domowina was/is also primarily an umbrella organization than a party.

I figure that at least the status of being a recognized minority would still be granted as in OTL but I think whether or not a Lusatian party would have any seats depends much on how the political system in post-revolt East Germany/Prussia would look like and how much these actually used in practice - for example there's no percentage restrictions for Sorbian parties in Brandenburg - but as far as I'm aware it was never used. On the other hand, there isn't much that speaks against such a measure.

I think too that the Republik Preußen would be like Hungary in Politics, with an CDU-AfD-Free Voters fusion called "Treue- Der Bürgerbund" (an allusion to the Fidesz Party in Hungary )or "Bürgerlich Preußische Volkspartei" in charge

It turns out predicting the political culture of an independent east germany/similar entity like republic of prussia is actually kind of tricky because a lot of the assumptions regarding East Germany's political culture are based on parties forming their narrative around "the reunification failed and the west/the capitalists/the globalists/xyz are exploiting us" like the PDS/Linke or NPD (west german party) & AfD (wouldn't exist/probably remain as an FDP fork).
A Fidesz-style party based on e.g. the 1990 DSU would certainly be possible, following the usual anti-northwest EU narrative, just this time with west germany included as an oppressive economic force with arrogant citizens - But I feel like the right wing would be further divided in narrative between those parties and parties prioritizing reunification/restoration of 1937 germany as their primary agenda, perhaps fueled by a pink glasses future where east germany would be just as prosperous as the west simply by reunifying.
The left wing would probably be less divided, but the PDS would perhaps be a much smaller force with less anxiety about east german culture/economy being absorbed by the west out there, but for details of their decline one would probably have to look into how it went in other warsaw pact countries to get an idea. The political culture might probably end up being less polarized than it is OTL, assuming East Germany economically follows a path at least vaguely similar to e.g. Czechia.

 

[Jürgen]

I don’t see how Germany can be kept from reuniting after the fall of the USSR. It would demand a radical different political context in both Europe and USA.