Effects of a 1991 World War III

What would be the outcome of a third world war in 1991?


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Starmers98

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In November 1990, with Soviet hardliners like either Grishin or Romanov (concerned about the rapid dismantling of communism) launch a successful coup (Gorbachev's fate remains unknown), tensions are much worse than OTL. The Soviets then use their forces stationed in Eastern Europe (including clearing out those stationed in Eastern Germany) to restore the communist dictatorships in those countries (excluding Eastern Germany due to it now being part of NATO) and overthrowing the previous governments (the overthrown governments flee to London in exile). In response to these events NATO extends NORTHAG and CENTAG into Eastern Germany along the German-Polish and German-Czech borders. NATO's BALTAP is extended into the eastern German state of Mecklenburg.
Finally, during the spring of 1991 a major crisis develops between the US and USSR. Tension builds across the Iron Curtain until finally the Warsaw Pact launches three full-scale attack against NATO forces (Seven Days to the River Rhine, Operation Northern Norway, and an invasion of Greece and Turkey to capture the Turkish Straits) on June 1, 1991. In occupied territories, Operation Gladio is initiated, resulting in very harsh and brutal Soviet/Warsaw Pact reprisals.

The war lasts roughly two months, long enough that the tide of the war turns. The Warsaw Pact launches successful preemptive conventional strikes on NATO bases and ports across Western Europe prior to a ground offensive (hoping to reach the River Rhine in 7 days). Most of their attack plans are achieved following the conventional strikes:
- Salzburg, Innesbruck, Trento, Linz, Bad Kotzing, Nuremberg and Munich fall to the Czechoslovak.
- Vienna, Gratz, Tirestie, Venice, Urdine, Verona, Stuttgart, Padau and Vicenza all go to Hungary.
- The Austro-Yugoslav (now Slovenian) border zone is patroled by Romania.
- The southern Danish islands fall under joint Polish-Soviet occupation.
- The Soviets capture most of Greece and the areas surrounding the Turkish Straits (therefore blocking NATO shipping).
Despite nearly being overwhelmed in the early days of the war by the sheer number of WarPac troops, NATO is able to hold on following a successful last-ditch conventional air campaign (Operation Bloody Nose) which cripples Warsaw Pact command and control posts (throwing their armies in the field into chaos) and gaining air supremacy over Eastern European airspace after inflicting devastating losses on the Soviet Air Force in the ensuing battle, and NATO (with the help of Operation Gladio) is able to liberate Northern Italy, Austria, parts of Germany, the Danish Isles, most of Greece, and parts of Turkey. NATO decides to liberate the whole of Europe from Soviet control and launches a full scale invasion of Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary. NATO is able to hold the Warsaw Pact back into the Greek-Bulgarian borders.

After Finland (strictly adhering to the 1948 Finno-Soviet Treaty) refused to grant the Soviets access to its northern airfields for operations against Norway, the Soviets began a navel assault on southern Finland and a block bombing campaign in the region ahead of a land assault across the entire Finnish border. Heavy bombing also hit Oulu prior to its invasion by both sea and across land from Karelia in the USSR. Some northern locations like Kittilä municipality were taken by airborne troops to help encircle the Norwegian province of Finnmark. Kittilä (Inari Sami: Kittâl, Northern Sami: Gihttel) is a municipality of Finland within the area of the former Lappi province. After capturing both Kuusamo and Kajaani, the USSR cut the nation in half by driving at Oulu as in the 1939 Winter War. Kotka, Lahti, Helsinki were taken by a few Soviet paratroopers and after the Red air force bombed it a bit. The Finnish government fled to Stockholm.
When Finland was attacked, Sweden began a heavy bombing of Soviet units around Oulu and/or Turku prior to its successful liberation by the Swedes by both sea and air in order to eventually set up a safe zone for a neutral Finnish rump state. Under NATO's Operation Gladio, both Swedish backed resistance fighters (who were first organised in 1944) and the 5th (ski) battalion of the Scots Guards of the British army launch successful operations against the Soviets in the south, south west and west of Finland (backed by CIA thugs who topple the Soviet occupation government in Finland).

The Soviet Northern Fleet (based in Severomorsk) launches a massive land, sea and air assault on Bodø, Bardufoss, Andenes, Frøy, Tromsø, Lakselv and Kirkenes (all in Northern Norway). Some northern locations in northern Finland like Kittilä municipality and Ivalo Airfield are taken by airborne troops to help encircle the Norwegian province of Finnmark after the Finns refuse to co-operate with the Soviets.
The fall of Northern Norway results in the Soviet capture of Jan Mayen Island and the Norwegian/Russian mining colony of Spitsbergen, leading to the capture of the NATO held LORAN-C Station near Olokin City. All this leads to a successful capture by the Soviet Spetsnaz of the NATO air station at Keflavík and the near by intelligence gathering post with the goal of eliminating the SOSUS sonar buoy line in the GIUK gap which would allow the Soviet Navy to surge its submarines into the Atlantic Ocean without being detected and distribute sea mines in the region. This leads to Soviet ships and submarines going on to engage and destroy NATO shipping in the North Atlantic.
Norwegian and NATO forces (alongside Norwegian resistance fighters under Operation Gladio) launch a successful counterstrike against Soviet occupying forces in Northern Norway.

In Central Europe, NATO is pushed back from Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, following a Soviet ordered chemical strike, and a stalemate develops in Central Europe. NATO, running out of supplies and reinforcements as a result of Soviet attacks on NATO shipping in the North Atlantic, retreat back the German-Polish, German-Czech, Austro-Czech, and Austro-Hungarian borders in order to fight a defensive war against the Warsaw Pact. Heavily outnumbered by increasing Soviet reinforcements, NATO authorizes an unsuccessful chemical strike against well protected Warsaw Pact forces. Due to the failure of the chemical strikes to stop the Soviet advance, and determined to prevent their defensive line from falling, NATO utilizes tactical nuclear weapons and the Warsaw Pact responds in kind. Fearing a total strategic exchange, the Soviets (from Priluki Air Base in the Ukraine) detonate the Tsar Bomba over above the North Sea as a warning to NATO to end the war. The detonation causes incidences "shakes", "broken windows", which can be felt throughout the UK and northwestern Europe, as well as producing an electromagnetic impulse which damages electrical systems in these regions. The Soviet nuclear blackmail pays off however, and both sides agree to end the war. Both sides agree to a status quo and a withdrawal to pre-war lines in Europe.

End result: Stalemate. Democracy immediately restored back to Eastern Europe. Soviet forces withdraw from Eastern Europe and NATO forces withdraw from eastern Germany by the end of 1994. Contaminated areas of Europe (from chemical weapons and tactical nukes) undergo decontamination. Soviet Union eventually collapses in December 1991.

With that scenario in mind, try to brainstorm what 90s-present culture looks like in the wake of one of the most devastating conflicts in recent history. It can be as broad as general trends across society or as narrow as what a certain artist might do during and after WW3.

Some of my predictions for American culture:
- The US regards the war much more positively than much of the rest of the rest of the world, due to it being a clear victory and not suffering nearly the same sort of devastation as was wrought upon the border regions of Central Europe. Still, the fall of Iceland and Northern Norway and the failure to completely liberate Eastern Europe from communism weigh heavy on the American psyche.
- George Bush-worship knows no bounds as he is remembered for providing strong leadership throughout the bulk of the war.
- WW3 films and documentaries become all the rage throughout the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. WW2 films and WW1 films less prevalent - films like Saving Private Ryan might be butterflied away or reworked to fit into a WW3 context.
- Soviet and Warsaw Pact atrocities become common fodder in the Western media for decades to come.
- Technothriller authors scramble to try and find a way to recoup from real life eclipsing their work. Tom Clancy takes a break from writing fiction and instead collaborates with historians and veterans to create a massive non-fiction novel detailing the Third World War through the eyes of soldiers, politicians, and civilians on both sides. Entitled something like Red Storm Realized or The Eagle and the Bear, the work is hailed as Clancy's magnum opus upon it's release in 1993. Meanwhile, Harold Coyle writes a book detailing his personal experiences in the war, comparing his fictional scenario in Team Yankee with the real thing.
-Western veterans exposed to the Soviet chemical strikes are still affected, including having defects, disabilities, sicknesses, early deaths, etc.

Soviet culture:
- The Soviets also regard this war positively due to the success in defending itself from another attack from the west and not suffering nearly the same sort of devastation and loss of life as was experienced during the Napoleonic Wars, ww1, the 1917 Revolution, the Russian Civil War, and ww2. However, the failure to completely remove the Americans from Europe are a heavy burden on the Soviet psyche.
- The loss of empire with the collapse of Eastern European communism have a negative effect on the Russian mindset as having lost the peace (similar to Britain losing its empire after being victorious in ww2)
- WW3 films and documentaries become rampant in Russia throughout the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s.
- Soviets veterans of that war are treated very highly in Russia in a similar way as those veterans from the Great Patriotic War.
- Eastern veterans exposed to NATO chemical strikes are still affected, including having defects, disabilities, sicknesses, early deaths, etc.
 
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Problem is that by 91, the Soviet Union is basically out of money, the cupboard is empty and the Borscht is all gone. Maintenance standards and routines had been falling and would continue to fall, morale amongst the troops was low as was their training level. Equipment wasn't being maintained and there was issues with supply.

You want to see how well the Soviet Union would do against the West in 91? Desert Storm says hello. The Iraqi army used the Soviet playbook, doctrine and technology (albeit generally rather inferior 'monkey' export versions of some kit) and NATO tore them apart.

The West has a training and technological advantage, in the age of satellites, especially if tensions were rising between East and West, there simply would be no way to hide massed troop and vehicle movements across the Warsaw Pact to their jumping off areas. Poland and East Germany were restive, as were many other Warsaw Pact countries and the alliance was crumbling as fast as the Soviet econimy. Yes they'd punch deep into Germany and threaten parts of Norway, but beyond that. No. And to have all these ducks fall in the row for the Soviets during their attack, rolling nat 20's for a month and a half in a row does not even come close to how much luck or guidance from the spirit of Stalin that would actually take.

lets talk the naval area.

The USN by 1991 has - 49 Los Angeles Class SSN's in service including a decent number of the fully upgraded 688i types. This is backed up by at least 37 Sturgeon class subs which were as good as anything the Soviets had. Both classes are quieter than their soviet counterparts, have far more advanced acoustic equipment and are better trained and in a better state of repair. Those two classes alone outnumber the Soviet nuclear fleet. And this isn't counting the RN, the MN or the BM or Norwegian subs etc etc. And the Soviets have some decent subs with the Victor III's but they're still a lot more noisy than their NATO counterparts apart from their older stuff. Anything older than a Victor II is going to be easy to track, find and kill. By 91 there's a LARGE number of Aegis class ships with the Arleigh Burke's coming into commission as well (the first was laid down in 88) so massed against against fleets will be less effective. Any soviet diesel boat that's not a Kilo, you might as well just shoot the crew and save the fuel she'd burn, it would be cheaper. In the air the MiG-29's more common but the SU-27 isn't and the Soviets still have to rely on large numbers of MiG-23's which are markedly inferior to Western aircraft in terms of weapons and sensors. The Soviets also don't have much of an AWACS capability and again, their maintenance is terrible by 91 as they're out of money.
 
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AlexG

Banned
NATO curbstomps the SU so hard that Russian's 30 years later will still be psychologically scarred by it.

By 1991, The Soviet Union was in no condition to fight NATO. It's Warsaw Pact allies were all collapsing, it's military was in shreds and it's people were not going to sign up to die to fight for Communism.

Realistically, the coup even if it had been "successful" would have ended in a Russian Civil infighting with everyone so fed up with Communism that even the regular soldiers wouldn't have fought for the coup leaders if they foresaw a tough fight ahead.

Unrealistically, if the coup just magically goes on ahead without anyone stopping it, the Soviet Union falls into a civil war anyways with all of its constituent nations declaring independence and being supported militarily by NATO. The Soviet collapse is even worse than OTL and most states outright join NATO instead peacefully joining over the years.
 

Deleted member 140587

I think that for this to be plausible, you might want to push the date back a couple years. Perhaps the Soviets launch an attack against the West in response to them fearing Able Archer in 1983.

Also I don't think the Soviets would really have an advantage in any sort of WWIII scenario post 1980. By the early 1980s, Reagan was successfully managing to exorcise America's Vietnam Syndrome. In addition to that, the military buildup initiated by Carter (which Reagan took credit for and increased tenfold) was in full swing. This also precipitated Britain and Germany strengthening their militaries. The USSR, meanwhile, was in terminal decline due to the stagnation of the Brezhnev years. Game, set, and match for NATO.
 
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ferdi254

Banned
The video about the land war is funny. It assumes all reservists would actually show up. It also assumes all red army vehicles were fit for fight. Both was not the case.
 
I think that for this to be plausible, you might want to push the date back a couple years. Perhaps the Soviets launch an attack against the West in response to them fearing Able Archer in 1983.

Also I don't think the Soviets would really have an advantage in any sort of WWIII scenario post 1980. By the early 1980s, Reagan was successfully managing to exorcise America's Vietnam Syndrome. In addition to that, the military buildup initiated by Carter (which Reagan took credit for and increased tenfold) was in full swing. This also precipitated Britain and Germany strengthening their militaries. The USSR, meanwhile, was in terminal decline due to the stagnation of the Brezhnev years. Game, set, and match for NATO.

Absolutely, the air ops for Desert Storm were basically a scaled down version of what NATO planned to do to the Soviets. They had gamed out the air plan in 1984 which foresaw the widescale use of ALCM's and later applied Stealth to the mix. The Soviet General staff were convinced coalition forces would win but would suffer massive casualties. Soviet forces morale and readiness were at an absolute nadir, thinking the Soviet Navy for example were anything other than targets is a joke, the RAF Nimrod force were absolutely terrifying to WARPAC submarine commanders, it was not unheard of for a Nimrod to prosecute 3-4 subs on a sortie, if it had been war they would all be on the bottom.

NATO land forces were just completing a widescale modernisation program in 1990, the Bundeswher panzer forces had lots of Leopard II tanks and most US Armour in Europe consisted of Abrams and Challenger 1&2 was in widespread use with the British tank forces. They were also better trained and more capable than at any point in NATO's history.
 
As a member of the 3rd ID stationed in West Germany at that time, I can see some issues with this.
1) The Tsar Bomba was a 1961 test bed weapon, not an operational one. It required specially modified planes and specially made casings and physics packages. The physic packages alone would take regular Tu-95's out of service to not only transport the device, but to actually drop it. The Soviet's had much better options in the R-36M2 Voevoda (SS-18 Mod 6) carrying a single 20MT warhead.

2) If the Soviets are gearing up for an all-out attack, every single NATO and Allied Power military unit has been in the field for at least a week prepping hasty battalion sized kill zones with several fall back positions being prepped as well. Air assets are on CAP and quick reaction forces are already across what was supposed to be the Soviet "starting line" at the Inter-German Border.

3) Poland is not going to support a suicidal attack into Germany. Their troops are going to either sit in their barracks or crush the piecemeal Soviet units that the Soviets are pre-positioning on the German-Polish border while begging the Germans to come help them throw off the Soviet invasion. The Polish government was an elected government run by Lech Wałęsa and Russian troops were gearing up to leave Poland. There's no way any Polish CIC is going to let Polish troops attack.

4) If the Soviets are insane enough to attack NATO and Turkey (with it's 50-60 devices in US hands), there is a standing doctrine of chemical and limited nuclear warfare as an opening salvo. Bremerhaven and other large North Sea and Atlantic ports are going to be hit at a minimum. There will be retaliation.

5) The former East Germans are going to have Army-level planning information on how the Soviets will fight. This will make going through Germany a gd nightmare for the Soviets who would be relying on their East German "allies" to take the brunt of the initial fighting. That's not happening now.

6) Soviet losses in the air and on the ground are going to be extreme. The tech difference is going to make executing big offensives very difficult at best for the Soviets.

I have some more ideas, but dinner is ready.
 
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