Economy of a Hapsburg-less Spain

[Daniwani]

Spain's economy was pretty much doomed from the start of its initially extremely successful empire. Without even touching the issues of inflation, blame is often cast on the mountains of gold spent on military adventures, fending off the Ottomans and the Berbers, and German Religious wars. Perhaps we can assume that Spain by it's very nature would become involved in Germany during the reformation, but to what extant?

I've often heard people talk of the Hapsburg's using Spain's military might and bustling economy haphazardly, wringing the country dry to solve problems in the HRE/Germany. If say, either early on the Hapsburg's lose control over Spain, close ties are broken between the Austrian and Spanish branches, or the Hapsburgs never take root in Spain in the first place (not sure how probable those are, or what the butterflies would be), what would the effects on the economy be? How much longer can we realistically expect it to last? or is the inflation alone going to tear it down right on schedule?

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

I think Spain is going to have the same economic problems even without the Hapsburgs. Without them the wars are going to be different but I can't see Spain not frittering it all away. It's too much of a temptation to spend, spend, spend when you have ship loads of gold arriving every year.

Keeping the Hapsburgs out of Spain would only require a few small changes (I like the idea of a competient Joanna the Mad, although there are plenty of smaller options.) I think it's likely the Hapsburgs would try again later though. Without the Hapsburgs Spain is likely to pursue a more Mediterranean interest and stay out of Central Europe but they are still the Catholic Monarchs and a lot of their legitimacy comes from that. They'll be forced to become heavily involved in any counter reformation even if it's just financial aid. I think that to improve Spain's position overall you'll have to get them to spend more of that gold on permanent infrastructure so that they have something positive to show for it once inflation sets in (which it will).

 

[Niko Malaka]

It's an interesting question.

First, I think that without the Habsburgs, the proccess that led to the lose of power of the Cortes and the cities in favour of the crown would be slowed. Perhaps it could be reverted in a latter moment....The process had been put in motion by the last Trastamaras, specially Isabel I, but the Habsburgs politics were much more agressive. In fact, one possible POD for a Habsburgs less Spain is a successful Comunero revolt in Castile (1520-1521), and the main reason behind this revolt was the conflict between the Cortes and the new king, Charles I. And it was a prelude in a way, since the conflict wwas around fiscality and Charles' intention to take money from the castilian treasure to buy electors in the HRE. Stronger Cortes means thus that tazes and expenses have to be subordinated by a larger consensus than in OTL, and fiscalized by sectors with local instead of global/geoestrategical motivations. It also would have an effect in the ability of the crown to wage wars at her will.

Also it means a urban elite and bourgeoisie in a better position compared to our TL. Certainly inflation would be still a problem if thinks go like in OTL in the americas, it was a problem even beyond Spain. But despite this, the possibilities of capital accumulation are probably larger than in OTL. A souding example was Philip II dstroying the thriving financial market growing in Seville, where local and "international" lenders, banks, assurances etc prospered thanks to the side-effects of the trans-atlantic trade. Seekig money wherever he could find it to pay debts, Philip litterally took the money from them so the remaining decided to take their bussiness to more secure places like Italy or the Netherlands... Another example is the old conflict between the cities and the Mesta (the organization representing the sheep-breeders' interests and regulations, basically the big landowners) regardinmg the spanish whool. Spanish whool was exported to Flanders and then clothes were imported from them, while representaives of the cities complained about this, reclaiming protection for the local clothes producers. It was also one of the grievances adressed by the Comuneros to Charles...