East of Suez: A Post War British Commonwealth TL

[NixonTheUsedCarSalesman]

ITTL we jerk the Commonwealth of Nations, and make it an organization with teeth as the cold war develops, without making it British Empire v2.

The POD is appointing William Slim instead of Mountbatten as the last viceroy of India. Direct Action Day never happens and much of the violence of the partition is butterflied away. This leads to a slight victory for Labour in the 1951 General Election instead of a slight defeat, and from there the Government reacts to decolonization in a very different way.

Things to expect:

-The UK loses Suez, but no Suez Crisis occurs
-Avro Arrow, Black Arrow and HOTOL jerkin', with the Commonwealth creating their own Space Agency, Nuclear Shield, and arms procurement system.
-India and Pakistan split on more equitable terms, Pakistan is broadly pro-Commonwealth (as a republic) while India stays true neutral.
-The UK maintains a sphere of pro-western, Monarchist allies in the middle east. Namely Pahlavi Iran and an Arab Federation under the Hashemids, called the Hashemite Kingdom of Mashriq
-Arab cold war between Pro-Commonwealth countries and Pro-Nasser countries.
-Jordan annexes the West Bank as per OTL and keeps it when it accedes to Mashriq. Peace with Israel is secured in exchange for Israeli recognition of Mashriqi sovereignty over the West Bank.
-Brits keep Aden
-Britain purchases Gwadar on the Pakistani mainland from Oman, and develop it into a deep water port that controls much of Pakistan and Iran's trade.
-Rhodesia-Nyasaland implements majority rule and becomes a dominion, and eventually a power on par with Australia within the Commonwealth.
-South Africa under the Nationalist Party leaves the Commonwealth.
-The West Indian Federation is successful, and the Bahamas, Guyana and Belize join it.
-A South Seas Federation is created of various pacific colonies, mirroring the West Indian Federation
-The Straits Settlements becomes a dominion separate from Malaysia.
-The Andaman and Nicobar islands become anglicized and join the EIF.
-Diego Garcia is made into a Commonwealth naval base rather than a US one. Indian Ocean becomes a British lake.
-Malta becomes an integral part of the UK.
-Indonesia under Surkano joins the Communist Bloc
-Undeclared hostilities with Indonesia in New Guinea and North Borneo
-Possible conventional war?
-Commonwealth commitments alienates Quebeckers during the Quiet Revolution. Quebec secedes from Canada via referendum.
-Possible partition of Quebec. Northern Quebec (Ungava), West Montreal, etc, staying with Canada
-A commonwealth trade block with the UK remaining only in the EFTA instead of the EU proper.
-Republics leave the Commonwealth, resulting in fewer member states but a more meaningful connection between the few remaining realms.
-A "Pan British" identity develops. While each citizen will identify as a Canadian or a Welshman or a Fijian first, they will all to some extent extent identify as "British"

The above are maps of the new dominions to be added to the Commonwealth, in addition to the original dominions of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and of course the Home Nations.

Depending on how strong the Commonwealth ends up being, there's always the chance that they get cocky enough to try and make a stand against communist China when the lease on Hong Kong gets close to elapsing.

I will post the first entry soon.

 

[Great Britain]

I don't know the plausibility,but I sure like the sound of this.

 

[hugh lupus]

Oh gosh that is a lot and it sounds like fun too.

I hate to sound boring on Christmas day ....but money?

If we presuppose a OTL end to WW2 then you have a UK that is all but bankrupt .

So what changes,what does the UK[and Empire?] give up that it did not do IOTL?

The loss of Suez seems to indicate that Singapore goes also, unless you can co opt them into a sort of commonwealth ANZUS?

India ,indeed the whole of the sub continent becomes independent?

If you back the Dutch ,how do you not also back the French .....with all that entails?

And the two elephants that were not mentioned, the USA and the USSR what of them?

I am sure that you have a plan an I await with bated breath to see how this plays out

 

[StrikeEcho]

Interesting, I can't wait to see how this turns out.

 

[NixonTheUsedCarSalesman]

The Seeds of Change

The United Kingdom and the British Empire had emerged victorious from World War II, though what lay ahead for the Empire remained uncertain. It was an American bomb, and the threat of an American Invasion that achieved victory over Japan, and while the Commonwealth carried the day in Europe, the war in the Pacific shattered the illusion of a mighty Empire. The Imperial base at Singapore, once called the Gibraltar of the East, fell in a matter of days to Japanese forces and ABDA territories were lost in one fell swoop shortly after. The Australian Army, already fighting in North Africa, had no choice but to quit the fight to protect the home country as Britain failed to uphold the Singapore Strategy. India suffered terribly during the Bengal famine and mounting unrest during the war proved the British colonial system was rapidly disintegrating. Even the Raj itself was directly threatened by Japanese land invasion, only being saved by a timely victory at Imphal.

Additionally, the UK emerged from the war heavily indebted and war torn. The British people elected the Labour party under Clement Atlee. The Labour Party promised recovery, full employment guaranteed by Keynesian economics, a tax funded national health service and a cradle to grave welfare state. It brought them the largest landslide victory in British history. While the conservatives were led by the wartime hero Winston Churchill, the memory of the ill handling of the Great Depression and the policy of Appeasement that had marked the conservative party's administration in the 1930s lingered in the minds of voters, and they placed their trust in a new administration.

On 26 June, the UK, the Dominions, India and indeed all 50 Allied nations of World War 2 signed the UN Charter. The United Nations war formed, dedicated to forever preventing another world war, and also affirming the international community's commitment to national self determination. The process of decolonization had begun. While clear to powers such as the USA and the USSR, this fact had not yet dawned on the old powers in Europe, with the possible exception of the largest Empire, that of Britain's.

New Wars in the East

With Japan defeated, the French were anxious to reestablish control over Indochina, but were in no position to reclaim it themselves. At France's behest, The Chinese and British Indian army was sent in to accept the Japanese surrender there and occupy the region before colonial rule could be restored. The Viet Minh, a communist resistance movement led by Ho Chi Minh, declared itself the government of the now liberated Vietnam. This was accepted in the Chinese zone in the North, but the British took the side of the French, and found itself fighting an insurgency in the southern Zone.

Commandos are saluted by surrendering Japanese soldiers

The Indian Army was battle hardened, and many of it's officers had long careers fighting guerrillas on the frontiers of the Raj. In 1946, the Viet Minh had been suppressed in the South, and the Nationalist Chinese had pulled out of their zone as the civil war in China resumed there in bloody earnest. The French reoccupied the whole of Vietnam, but the Viet Minh would never truly be pacified in the northern zone, and the stage was set for the partition of Vietnam and a war that would last decades.

Meanwhile, the Netherlands similarly leaned on Britain to reestablish their colonies in the East Indies, and so Britain leaned on the Indian Army. While the Japanese were reviled in Indonesia, the Dutch were not seen as much better, and the Japanese had succeeded in destroying the colonial ruling apparatus as well as developing an anti-western mind set. When the Japanese surrendered, Indonesia declared itself an independent republic, and a national revolution swept the former colony like wild fire.

The Allies denounced this government as a creation of Japanese fascism, and the Netherlands received American loans to finance a return in force.

The British however were the first boots on the ground. They were tasked with accepting the Japanese surrender, repatriating Japanese troops, and maintaining law and order, yet the question was who's law was to be upheld. The British supported the Dutch claim, but there were unwilling to commit to a bloody struggle to regain Indonesia for a foreign Empire. An Indian force was then sent into the city of Surabaya to disarm the Japanese there, but they had found that the Japanese commanders had distributed their weapons to the populace, with the Indonesian Republicans declaring Surabaya a fortress city. The situation was tense, and eventually erupted when Brigader Mallaby was murdered by an Indonesian mob while on a non-combat observation mission. The British launched a punitive mission to clear the entire city of resistance. For weeks Indian troops advanced methodically through the city, clearing it block by block in bitter house to house fighting. Despite being a military victory for the British, it was a political victory for the Indonesians, as the battle galvanized support for the Republic both among Indonesians and the international community. The British would pull out of Indonesia shortly after, before 1945 was out.

Indian Troops fighting in Surabaya

The Dutch would continue to fight for their colony for years thereafter, and took to increasingly drastic measures as they fought the war themselves against a dedicated and well organized resistance.

The Situation in India

The British Raj was largely divided into two political parties, the Indian National Congress led by Jawaharal Nehru and supported by Gandhi and the All-India Muslim league led by Mohammed Ali Jinnah. The Congress was at the forefront of the demand for a independent, whole, and secular India, while the league was committed to realizing the dream of the Pakistan Movement, a Muslim homeland to be carved out of the Raj to achieve independence as a separate state. Additionally there was several other mostly regional parties. The largest third party was the Indian Communist Party.

Mohammed Ali Jinnah, pictured left, Jawaharal Nehru, pictured right

In 1942 the Congress orchestrated the Quit India movement, which entailed mass civil disobedience led by Gandhi demanding an immediate British exit from India, regardless of the war situation. Quit India was crushed by the colonial authorities, with many of it's leaders in the Congress establishment being placed in prison. While the Congress weakened, the League gained strength, and rallied behind the British war effort and found positions of power fall into their lap. The league rallied under the cry "Islam in Peril!" and sold the loyalist policy to their voters as a means of gaining the power needed to make Pakistan a reality. The Communists backed the British due to the Allied support of the Soviet Union. This proved to be deeply unpopular with Indians and they were essentially neutered in immediate post war politics.

Mass demonstrations during the Quit India movement

In the 1945 general elections, the Congress proved that they regained their strength, winning 59 of the 102 seats. The League however won every single Muslim constituency, all 30 seats, and while they didn't win a single one in what they were calling "Hindustan," this was not their goal, they were seeking to consolidate control over their future homeland, and to prove that they had the democratic mandate to do so. The 1946 provincial elections went much the same way, the league coming in second but once again uniting the Muslim vote under the League.

These developments made it painfully clear to Nehur, Gandhi and the congress leadership that Pakistan existing in some form was inevitable, either as a separate state or one in very loose confederation with India proper.

1946 also saw unrest break out among the British security forces in India. Frustrated by slow repatriation back to Britain and squalid living conditions, dozens of RAF stations in India, Ceylon, and even as far away as Singapore minuted, characterized by disobedience of the chain of command and vocal demonstration. A far worse mutiny broke out among the ranks of the Royal Indian Navy, with 10 000 sailors rising up in a general strike, before eventually falling into rioting on the streets of major Indian cities.

Unrest during the mutiny was unorganized but widespread.

It was painfully clear to Westminster that the military could not be counted on to occupy India much longer.

 

[Knightmare]

It was painfully clear to Westminster that the military could not be counted on to occupy India much longer.

Always a fun statement to hear about.

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

Hmmm, interesting. So Ike will back up our allies rather than the Egyptians?

 

[NixonTheUsedCarSalesman]

Always a fun statement to hear about.

It get better.

Not by much. But better than OTL. The Indo-Pakistan war of 1947 is avoided.

 

[hugh lupus]

Yes, a good summation.
A good tale has a good foundation.
This is a good start

 

[NixonTheUsedCarSalesman]

Hmmm, interesting. So Ike will back up our allies rather than the Egyptians?

Nope, Nasser nationalizes the Canal, it's just that Britain and France don't try to oppose it militarily. This is a Commonwealth Wank, not a straight up Empire wank, so things will end up looking very different compared to Britain's Victorian heyday.

Plus I need a strong Nasser to keep things interesting. He forms a stable United Arab Republic and serves as the principal challenger to the Commonwealth as it develops it's bloc in the Middle East. Sukarno will fulfill a similar role in Asia as leader of Indonesia when he tries to prevent the formation of Malaysia, and Siad Barre will fulfill the same role in Africa when he forms Greater Somalia and sets his sights on Kenya.

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

Nope, Nasser nationalizes the Canal, it's just that Britain and France don't try to oppose it militarily. This is a Commonwealth Wank, not a straight up Empire wank, so things will end up looking very different compared to Britain's Victorian heyday.

Plus I need a strong Nasser to keep things interesting. He forms a stable United Arab Republic and serves as the principal challenger to the Commonwealth as it develops it's bloc in the Middle East. Sukarno will fulfill a similar role in Asia as leader of Indonesia when he tries to prevent the formation of Malaysia, and Siad Barre will fulfill the same role in Africa when he forms Greater Somalia and sets his sights on Kenya.

Oh boy. Israel will need America and the Commonwealth

 

[NixonTheUsedCarSalesman]

The Division of India

To oversee the final transfer of power, Clement Attlee appointed William Slim, a Field Marshal in the British Indian army and commander of the 14th "Forgotten Army" during the war, as viceroy of India in 1946. He was selected for his experience in the region and for his Labour leanings.

Field Marshal William Slim, the 1st Viscount Slim

He was charged with transitioning India to a independent state no later than June 1948. However it was growing increasingly likely that Slim would transfer power to at least two governments as demands for a Muslim homeland in India grew. Slim's Alma Mater and home for 5 years was the Indian Staff College in Quetta in the heavily Muslim north of the Raj, and Slim was receptive to the Pakistan movement. Early in his appointment he declared that the independent India would be confederation of a Hindu-majority state and a Muslim-majority state, granting extensive autonomy to each while both would share a common currency, a single military, open borders, and a single governor general to represent them both. The move inflamed communal tensions, but it placated the Muslim League and their affiliates who shifted their rhetoric away from direct action towards the creation of Pakistan, and encouraged cooperation with the British authorities.

Both the League and the Congress agreed on one thing however, that the Princely States had no place in post-colonial India. They were ruled by despots how had signed treaties with the British, and were by far the most backwards and underdeveloped parts of the Raj. Slim spent much time convincing the various Nizams and Maharajahs to willingly relinquish de jure power and to join one of the two states of the future Dominion, but as a son of a iron-monger he had trouble courting these landed elites. Nehru and the Congress were far more successful at persuading Hindu Maharajas within the Hindu majority areas that would inevitably become the non-Muslim entity, but Jinnah and the League had less success in Muslim areas.

Hyderabad, the largest and wealthiest princely state, had its own army, airline, telecommunication system, railway, postal system, currency, central bank, radio service and a major public university.

Map of the Raj showing the British administered provinces and the Princely States. Hyderabad is emphasized.

It was largely Hindu in population, but it was ruled by a long line of Muslim Nazims, and from 1911 on by Osman Ali Khan, Asaf Jah VII, purportedly the most wealthy man in the world. Ali Khan was entirely unwilling to abdicate his throne.

The Nizam of Hyderabad

Conversely, the princely state seen as second in wealth and prestige was Jammu & Kashmir, a majority Muslim state ruled by a Hindu Maharajah, Hari Singh, who was equally unwilling to relinquish power.

The Maharajah of Jammu-Kashmir

Beyond the issue presented by the Princely states, there was also the matter of what borders would exist within the confederal India. It was decided that as each princely state could decided which state to accede to, so would each province. Sindh, North West Frontier Province, and Baluchistan had overwhelming Muslim majorities, most other provinces were overwhelmingly Hindu, but Bengal and Punjab were mostly Muslim, yet with very sizable Hindu minorities. It was considered that these two provinces be partitioned along communal lines to ensure the most amount of people fell within the state of their religion, and this was put to a vote in both provincial assemblies. In Punjab, the motion was defeated by the ruling Congress-Unionist party coalition. The Unionists mainly represented the interest of Punjab's landed gentry, and while mostly Muslim, the party was secular and had the support of the Sikh and Hindu elite as well, none of whom wanted to see their land divided and the motion was defeated. The opposition in Punjab was formed by the Muslim League, who was the largest party but still outnumbered by the coalition. In mid 1947 the Punjabi assembly voted that it would join the Muslim state unpartitioned, provided that concessions and guarantees be given to religious minorities.

Conversely in Bengal, the Muslim league had formed a government, but were unwilling to agree to partition as Calcutta (then the largest city in India) and much of Bengal's industry and lucrative jute mills were in the Hindu majority western half, and the motion was defeated. This generated considerable unrest as Hindus feared they would land within the Muslim state despite forming clear majorities in the west. A power sharing scheme was found in the United Bengal proposal, whereby a third state, Bengal, would come into existence alongside India proper and Pakistan. The state would embrace a Bengali identity rather than any one religious one, and the state would continue with 16 reserved seats for Muslims and 14 for Hindus.

A problem with this scheme was that Assam would then become an exclave, sharing neither a land or sea border with India proper. A motion was raised that the Assamese, speaking a brother language of Bengali, should also be included in the Bengali state. This passed, and also had the effect of bringing the proportion of Muslims and Hindus to a near 50/50, and so the seats were changed to 15 for each community.

The agreed upon borders of India Proper, Bengal, and Pakistan (princely states not shown)

These developments were well publicized as they happened, and many Muslims in what would became India Proper left for Pakistan, and many Hindus for India Proper. However no refugee crisis formed as was feared. Communal tensions were high, especially in the Hindu majority areas of Punjab, but most Hindu Punjabis were unwilling to leave home for Hindi speaking areas just to avoid falling under the Muslim flag, and made do with the concessions given to them. The consensus that three states would form within a confederal Dominion of India had dawned, and while sharply contested in some quarters, most Indians were united in joy to see their dream of independence finally being realized.

 

[NixonTheUsedCarSalesman]

Oh boy. Israel will need America and the Commonwealth

Not so much, Jordan, Iraq and Israel end up in the British bloc opposing Nasser.

 

[Some Bloke]

So India still splits, but 3 ways and with less tension between the 3 states.

 

[Some Bloke]

What happens to Sarawak?

 

[NixonTheUsedCarSalesman]

So India still splits, but 3 ways and with less tension between the 3 states.

Basically. After independence they're still one country but one divided into three states, but this deal breaks down overtime, rather than all at once. I'm not going to call this the best case scenario IRL, but I'm wanking Pakistan into a "Ulster" of sorts that'll give the Commonwealth a lasting toehold on the subcontinent. I've got a Mughal restoration, annexation of the Pashtun lands in Afghanistan, and neoliberal reforms in the 1960s in store for them. They'll end up being a much better ally than they are OTL.

India Proper will remain pretty gimped. More so than OTL because they've lost both Bengal and Punjab entirely. They'll continue to pursue non-alignment and socialistic policies into the 1980s.

I'm not sure what I'm going to do with Bengal, they might go communist, but in the Chinese or Soviet sphere?

What happens to Sarawak?

Sarawak might get eaten by Communist Indonesia. All that oil will turn them into a more fitting "antagonist" in this timeline.

 

[Some Bloke]

Communist Indonesia? That does not sound good.

 

[Some Bloke]

.

I'm not sure what I'm going to do with Bengal, they might go communist, but in the Chinese or Soviet sphere?

.

Maybe contribute to a more assertive/aggressive nonaligned movement moving from an accomodating neutrality
to a more strident "plague on both your houses" attitude.

 

[Paul_Sussex]

Nice to see things happening in India without Mountbatten stirring the pot!

 

[RyuDrago]

Nice to see things happening in India without Mountbatten stirring the pot!

Perhaps. But the Muslims wanked at the expense of the screwed Hindu, plus the Princely states will likely survive, and both have still the British monarch as head of state. Still TTL appeased peace is better than OTL wars and tensions.