Earliest/Latest Dates of OTL 1929 Wall Street Crash

[Whanztastic]

I am a little bothered by the fact that seemingly every TL which involves the 20s or 30s in America basically has the Stock Market crash on the same Black Tuesday in October 1929.

My question is how early can it feasibly happen and how late?

 

[Whanztastic]

Here, I'll start. I think it is entirely plausible for the Crash to happen in 1928, prior to the US Presidential Election or even the Republican and Democratic conventions.

I doubt that it could be later than the 1932 election though, unless there was substantial intervention that requires hindsight to think of.

 

[Aelita]

The general rubric to follow is that the earlier the Depression begins, the milder it will be, and the later it occurs, the deeper the resulting contraction will be.

Have a recession in 1926, and you might not have a depression at all. If it begins in 28, it'll be a mild depression.

 

[Aranfan]

Eh, I think that the Great Depression was more of a structural shift of Capitalism going into a Terminal Decline period, than one of the usual business cycle things.

You'd get something similar inside the same 5 year period on either side of the original crash IMO, assuming a POD after the end of the Long Depression of 1873-98.

 

[Mr Qwerty]

I doubt that it could be later than the 1932 election though, unless there was substantial intervention that requires hindsight to think of.

After the reelection of Herbert Hoover, no doubt.