Earliest fall of the Soviet Union

[Will Kürlich Kerl]

With a POD after 1946, when is the earliest the Soviet Union can fall?

 

[BulldogCommisar]

Possibly if the Hungarian Revolution had succeeded, and the other Soviet states had followed in their footsteps, which would put the collapse at 1956.

 

[Tizoc]

That would mean a collapse of Soviet sphere of influence in Europe/Warsaw Pact, not the USSR iself. Besides, nothing is stoping the Soviets from crushing uprisings by themselves.

 

[BulldogCommisar]

It would not have really been the Soviet Union without all of its republics, but I see what you mean. It would have still been communist, am I right?

 

[Polish Eagle]

It would not have really been the Soviet Union without all of its republics, but I see what you mean. It would have still been communist, am I right?

He means that Hungary and the other non-Soviet Warsaw Pact states could leave while Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus, and the other Socialist Republics remain in the Soviet Union. Hungary, Poland, DDR, those leaving the Pact wouldn't necessarily cause Ukraine or the others to leave the USSR.

As for when the Soviet Union could fall apart, a nuclear war could easily cause it to balkanize.

That aside, you basically need to put a moderate (Gorbachev) in power, because a hard-liner would not tolerate peaceful secession. Which is just very unlikely before the economic collapse of the 1980s. So, barring nuclear war or other disaster, I'd say the Soviet Union will not fall apart until the mid-1980s.