Dunkirk Disaster causes Japan to attack Britain in December 1940
- Thread starter John Gault
- Start date
Would Japan be defeated any faster than 1945? Yes the US still has the whole pacific fleet available to them, but what is to stop them from focusing on crushing Hitler first as they did in OTL. This is of course presuming that the Fuhrer makes the same mistake he did in OTL. Whether or not he still attacks the Soviets with America now in the War i don't know, but this is Hitler we are talking about.
How exactly? You didn't mention an attack on the Philippines. We're supposing here the US is defensive, not offensive. So unless Japan attacks the Philippines, the only aid I would see would be economic help, naval assets, aerial assets, and military equipment.
Would the USA declare war on Germany at this point???, would Hitler as in OTL declare war on the USA regardless??? (likely IMO)
Would Hitler forgo Barbarossa if already at war with the USA????, maybe, a Mediterranean strategy makes more sense now. Since Dunkirk has weakened the British army, I could see the downstream effects of that is the British don't fight for Crete, maybe delaying British counterattacks against Syria.
I think actually Hitler may delay Barbarossa, as with a Japanese fleet in, forcing Britain to make peace is a reasonable possibility now. With Dunkirk and the fact the British have another front means the the British may not be able to defend the middle east with so much, meaning a fair shot at taking Alexandria and shutting the Suez canal.
As far as the USA, were looking at all acts short of war, congress still has to approve war, but he can send an enlarged flying tigers, send divisions to Australia, New Zealand and Fiji to "train"? Would certainly occupy New Caledonia, Tahiti and places that are already Free French. No one will complain about that. Any defense measure gets passed. Lend Lease becomes pretty much "give".
Japan attacks Britain in 1940?
That's a loooonnngggggg way to steam about 13,000 NMs (and that includes transiting the Suez which the British kinda controlled so got to add a few extra thousand miles to go around the horn) - With no basing I suspect that much of the fleet runs out of fuel somewhere in the Indian ocean, then runs out of food and water and all the crews die.
So its a no from me
That's a loooonnngggggg way to steam about 13,000 NMs (and that includes transiting the Suez which the British kinda controlled so got to add a few extra thousand miles to go around the horn) - With no basing I suspect that much of the fleet runs out of fuel somewhere in the Indian ocean, then runs out of food and water and all the crews die.
So its a no from me
Well, given the 'lightness' of OPs post, we don't really know exactly what is happening.
His comment about the Japanese fleet 'obliterating' the RN, I've taken with a pinch of salt (well, a bucket of salt) to assume he means the Japanese fleet attacks British and Dutch holdings in the south Pacific - because of course he knows they can't sail around Cape of Good Hope!
So whilst I agree, the US, in theory, has no reason to declare war on Japan, Italy and Germany I think they will. The briefing, to Roosevelt, will go something like this:
"Mr. President, Japan has attacked Singapore, Malay and Burma against the British and most of the DEI. No formal declarations of war against the British or Dutch governments have been given but its clear that a state of war exists between them. Military intelligence suggests this is a co-ordinated attack by the Axis powers, of which Japan is now clearly one of, to knock the British out of the war. Combined with attacks in the Mediterranian, and German and Italian efforts in Greece, Syria and Iraq, we believe that after Germans failed attempt in September to directly attack the UK, that they are persuing a strategic of indirect attack and strangulation of the UK.
Our current estimates are that Japan will take Burma, Malay and Singapore within three months, and threaten India thereafter. Germany and Italy will likely dispose of Greece in the spring of 1941, before driving to the Suez whilst similtanously mounting attacks from Syria and Iraq. We estimate that by the summer, the UK will have been cleared out of North Africa, the Middle and Far East and be under attack in the horn of Africa, India and Australia. Further, unless something is done, we estimate the UK will have dropped out of the war by the end of 1941 at the latest; on potentially unfavourable terms to us.
Mr. President, we cannot rule out the possibility that large parts of the British fleet could fall into Axis hands, either indirectly by treaty surrender, or directly should the British government be overthrown and replaced by one led by *checks notes*... one Oswald Mosley."
Now a lot of this is probably bollocks, especially as WE, in our twenty twenty hindsight world know the Soviet Union are going to be clobbered, but Roosevelt doesn't want to hear a realistic assessment. He wants to hear 'worse case'. Because he's won the election, he's got a free hand for four years and he wants to DOW.
In this Alt-December 1940, the situation painted above is deliberately bad, but it also isn't one that APPEARS unreasonable. WE know Germany is incompetent. WE know Italy couldn't defeat Greece and WE know Japan will run out of steam and WE know that Spain is a wreck, even if it is on the side of the Axis. But the US really doesn't. A glance at the map shows the Axis, of which it still considers the Soviet Union to be a defacto ally of, in control of EVERYTHING from Coruna in the West, to Vladivostock in the East. From Narvick in the North to Port Moresby in the South. The Axis control half the world at this point and look to sweep up another quarter in the next twelve months (tops).
The United States will DOW. It has to. It only has two choices:
1. Declare war on the Axis; or
2. Potentially allow the Axis control of a fleet larger than the US fleet and domination of everywhere outside of North and South America. And even South America will be uncertain (re: Argentina especially).
The US can't allow 2 and military aid to the UK simply won't be enough at this point.
I presume he means in the Pacific. Maybe have a naval attack on Singapore?
No!!! not again!!!... there was NO WAY Argentina would be "uncertain"...it was "neutral" but de facto was providing to the allies with EVERYTHING!...and UK was happy about that, not the US that didn't understand a sh*t about argentinian internal politcs. And when in 1943 the nationalistic faction made a coup, there was neither a chance from Argentina to be part of the axis, not even with best wishes.
Oh yes. There is. We can discuss about the Middle Eastern Axis (Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan)., how the British retreat from the Indian Ocean, Middle East, and Africa, and finally USSR is invaded in May 1942.