Drunk on Bourbon

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Added the Papacy as a member of the Catholic Alliance.

That's a very ambitious plan they have there. I wonder how a the War of the Austrian Succession will go...

I think the Savoyards and Wittelsbachs will get beaten and lose quite a bit of land.

Keep in mind that there are still people at the French court who suspect that the Treaty of Novara was all a Habsburg fabrication. These people will be proven wrong when the partition plan is attempted, but they'll still be anti-Habsburg and might propose that France attempt to join in rather than oppose it.

I think the French will take losses in their colonies, since they will have to devote most of their resources to Europe.

That's assuming England joins the war, in which case they can attempt to take Hanover and use it as a guarantee of the return of their colonies.

The big wild card is Poland. If Poland joins the Wittelsbachs, then the war in Europe becomes uncertain. If Poland doesn't join, then the war in Europe goes decisively in favor of the Bourbons and Hapsburgs.

Philip will have to obtain domestic support for joining the war. Getting his uncles on board could help (he might offer one of them the Hungarian throne), but there's still the pro-Swedish faction.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

The Bourbon-Habsburg alliance caused the Seven Years War in OTL, and I think the English (no Kingdom of Great Britain TTL, right?) won't like two giant powers together.

Though I think it was the Russian factor that ultimately put Britain firmly against all three.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Continuing on my previous point about French attitudes toward the coming succession crisis, one course of action that the anti-Habsburg faction at court will push if they cannot persuade Louis to go back on the Treaties of Vienna would be to concentrate France's military might on Savoy and then Milan. They would support such a strategy in the hope that, with both territories under French control, Louis could switch sides in exchange for having Milan pass to a Bourbon rather than Savoy. Could something like this happen? Who knows, I haven't planned beyond the first minute of the war.

Another weakness that the Bavarian-Savoyard coalition could exploit is the situation in Spain. Philip's centralization policy has created much resentment in Navarre, the Basque provinces and the former Crown of Aragon. You know who would be next in line for the throne if they rise against the Bourbons? The King of Hungary. He'll refuse, of course, as long as France doesn't switch sides. You know who would be next in line then? The Duke of Savoy. Yeah...

You could also see attempts to take over to gain control over the Church, maybe by setting up independent Catholic Church in both Austria and Hungary. When Joseph tried that later the protest and revolt against that happened in Tyrol, Galicia and Austrian Netherland, none of those are part of the Habsburgs domain at this point. So it wouldn't be impossible.

You mean an Austrian version of Gallicanism?

The Bourbon-Habsburg alliance caused the Seven Years War in OTL, and I think the English (no Kingdom of Great Britain TTL, right?) won't like two giant powers together.

Though I think it was the Russian factor that ultimately put Britain firmly against all three.

It might've just been how much of an investment Prussia had become.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Yeah, Prussia had become so surprisingly powerful (Prussia, humiliating its nominal liege in the Silesian Wars? Appalling!) that the Diplomatic Revolution had occurred in the first place.

 

[Valdemar II]

You mean an Austrian version of Gallicanism?

Yes and no the Josephs reforms had much in common with Gallicanism, but they was much more radical. He planned to permit clerical marriages, make priest government officials, confiscating some ecclecials land, make the rest pay tax and forbidding beggar monk orders. More or less he planned to make the church Protestant in everything but name. While the earlier Habsburgs are unlikely to be that radical, I think some similar reforms are going to be pushed through. They have nothing to lose, while the Pope may become pissed*, the French will likely ignore it.

*Through I doubt he will go as far as try to excommunicate the Habsburgs, because that would more less just mean that they would set up a Austrian version of the Anglican Church.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

While the earlier Habsburgs are unlikely to be that radical, I think some similar reforms are going to be pushed through.

Joseph hasn't got long to live and *Ferdinand will follow him shortly. Charles doesn't seem like the type. His ATL sons will have grown up with an image of the most loyal subjects being the most Catholic. I like your idea, but it will have to wait for the 2nd half of the century.

Unless... the Habsburgs will be forced to establish separate churches in some of their lands as necessary evils to preserve those lands.

 

[Valdemar II]

Joseph hasn't got long to live and *Ferdinand will follow him shortly. Charles doesn't seem like the type. His ATL sons will have grown up with an image of the most loyal subjects being the most Catholic. I like your idea, but it will have to wait for the 2nd half of the century.

Unless... the Habsburgs will be forces to establish separate churches in some of their lands as necessary evils to preserve those lands.

The latter was also what I thought, and let's not forget while Maria Theresa was archcatholic, it didn't keep her from pushing a surprising high degree of reforms and tolerance for Protestants and Othodoxs.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

The latter was also what I thought, and let's not forget while Maria Theresa was archcatholic, it didn't keep her from pushing a surprising high degree of reforms and tolerance for Protestants and Othodoxs.

I wonder what the Hungarian Calvinists' attitude was toward the Eastern Orthodox population of the kingdom.

Cities that Sweden occupied temporarily:

Red: By the Treaty of Kustrin (1704) until 1711
Blue: By the Treaty of Dorpat (1706) until 1715

 

[Valdemar II]

I wonder what the Hungarian Calvinists' attitude was toward the Eastern Orthodox population of the kingdom.

To the extent I have read it was typical Calvinist: Who care what the peasants believe. They seem to have focused more on dealing with the Lutheran Saxons and their Catholic neighbours, than what a bunch of peasant thought and did. To large extent it was likely because they wasn't seen as threat.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

To the extent I have read it was typical Calvinist: Who care what the peasants believe. They seem to have focused more on dealing with the Lutheran Saxons and their Catholic neighbours, than what a bunch of peasant thought and did. To large extent it was likely because they wasn't seen as threat.

That might not be very wise.

 

[Valdemar II]

That might not be very wise.

I don't think so, it's not going to be a problem before the 19th century. Of course my personal opinion in this periode are that Transsylvania has other trouble. Transsylvania was in a good situation in the 16th-17th century, with the Ottomans between them and the Habsburgs, and military favouring small elite forces and fortification. Hungary are more or less in a perfect position to embrace the 18th century. Cereal prices are rising, the Danube are perfect for export to Germany and the Hungarian geography are perfect for a centralised state. Transsylvania on the other hand will have a hard time dealing with the growing proto-industrialisation of westen Europe which lower the prices of their main exports. General they will also have trouble to adapt to the growing focus on economies of scale in agriculture because of geography. This will make it very hard for Transsylvania to deal with the Hungarian/Habsburgs, even with their defensive geography.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

I don't think so, it's not going to be a problem before the 19th century. Of course my personal opinion in this periode are that Transsylvania has other trouble.

Oh, I don't mean the Romanians. They're only an issue if greater numbers convert to (Greco-)Catholicism than in OTL, which would alter the political situation in Transylvania and surrounding areas. I mean the large number of Serbs to the west.

Transsylvania was in a good situation in the 16th-17th century, with the Ottomans between them and the Habsburgs, and military favouring small elite forces and fortification. Hungary are more or less in a perfect position to embrace the 18th century. Cereal prices are rising, the Danube are perfect for export to Germany and the Hungarian geography are perfect for a centralised state. Transsylvania on the other hand will have a hard time dealing with the growing proto-industrialisation of westen Europe which lower the prices of their main exports. General they will also have trouble to adapt to the growing focus on economies of scale in agriculture because of geography. This will make it very hard for Transsylvania to deal with the Hungarian/Habsburgs, even with their defensive geography.

Rakoczi controls extensive territory outside Transylvania, however.

 

[Valdemar II]

Oh, I don't mean the Romanians. They're only an issue if greater numbers convert to (Greco-)Catholicism than in OTL, which would alter the political situation in Transylvania and surrounding areas. I mean the large number of Serbs to the west.

The Serb tended not to be a problem as long as the Ottoman was a credible threat, it was only by the late 19th century, they became a headache. There are also the aspect that without conquering the entire Banat and occupying Serbia between 1716-1739 we won't see the Muslims expelled and we have a much more religeous diverse Serbia, with the northen heartland dominated by Muslims. Especially if we see many Serbs leaving for Hungary when the Habsburgs fail to liberate them Belgrade and in Ottoman Banat. Of course this will only last if the Habsburgs fail to conquer them in the 18th century (in the 19th they will likely not expel them)

Rakoczi controls extensive territory outside Transylvania, however.

The question are whether this is enough, the solution may be to go Prussian (use everything to build up industry, military and adminstration), but the question are whether Rakoczi have the political power to push that through, it depend on how powerful the estates are and how much land is princely domain. The Hohenzollern could push the absolutism which made them able to develop their state, because they gave the knights freedom from taxation and the collapse of the knight fortunes as a result of the 30YW.

 

[vitemajoren]

Interesting development in the Great Northern War, does the alliance
between Denmark and Russia still exist? If I recall right Denmark dropped
out after Karl landed with his army on Själland. If so will the Russians fight
to help Denmark? In 1706-07 Karl has a golden opportunity to finish of
Denmark since the Maritime powers are busy elsewhere. Sadly with
Karl on the throne no going back to parliamentarism and no forming
of political parties.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

The Serb tended not to be a problem as long as the Ottoman was a credible threat, it was only by the late 19th century, they became a headache.

I don't mean a problem for the Habsburgs, I mean a problem to the Habsburgs' opponents. Rakoczi failed to win over the Serbs in OTL and, as long as the Habsburgs are credibly anti-Ottoman, they'll side with the crown when the situation in Hungary erupts into a civil war. And they may be well rewarded for it; one of the ideas floating through my "DoB" folder is for an autonomous Duchy of Rascia, roughly in the territory that would later form the Vojvodina in OTL.

Interesting development in the Great Northern War, does the alliance
between Denmark and Russia still exist? If I recall right Denmark dropped
out after Karl landed with his army on Själland. If so will the Russians fight
to help Denmark? In 1706-07 Karl has a golden opportunity to finish of
Denmark since the Maritime powers are busy elsewhere. Sadly with
Karl on the throne no going back to parliamentarism and no forming
of political parties.

Denmark-Norway had already dropped out of the war and there's no reason for Charles to attack it again. It's also forbidden to engage in anti-Swedish alliances, I believe. Russo-Danish relations are, of course, quite good given their common rival, but after the way the last war went they're not going to start another without Polish or Prussian support at the very least. Charles, meanwhile, is not going to attack either without motive because of his unrealistic notions of how wars should be fought.

And the Maritime Powers are not busy elsewhere in 1706-07, since the peace with France was in '04.

 

[Valdemar II]

I don't mean a problem for the Habsburgs, I mean a problem to the Habsburgs' opponents. Rakoczi failed to win over the Serbs in OTL and, as long as the Habsburgs are credibly anti-Ottoman, they'll side with the crown when the situation in Hungary erupts into a civil war. And they may be well rewarded for it; one of the ideas floating through my "DoB" folder is for an autonomous Duchy of Rascia, roughly in the territory that would later form the Vojvodina in OTL.

In that case I agree with you, the Serbs are likely to stay loyal to the Habsburgs. Through I would suggest that Duchy of Rascia would look more like this:

Minus Rakoczi domains and what the Ottomans kept.

A interesting aspect are religion, could we see the Serb becoming Uniate?

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

snip

Voivodeship=Vojvodina. I meant any of the OTL incarnations of the Vojvodina since 1848. Thing is, my idea was to organize it out of the western regiments of the Military Frontier (which at this point comprises more territory than in OTL 1849 - see my first 2 maps in this thread). And Rakoczi wouldn't be a problem since the scenario in which Rascia is organized is one in which he's been defeated.

A interesting aspect are religion, could we see the Serb becoming Uniate?

I floated that idea myself earlier. The decision is ultimately up to their religious hierarchy.

Hmm, weren't there some Bulgarians in the 17th century who advocated mass conversion to Catholicism to ensure Western aid against the Turks?

 

[Marko]

Since you mentioned there would be less migrations in TTL the Serbs would not be as numerous in Vojvodina as they got in OTL.

Something that could be of use


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The defining moment for population of Vojvodina was the "second Serb migration" of 1737-39.

Also there is little chance for Serbs change from Orthodoxy since the migarations were led by partriarchs and meant the church organisation followed the population.

Cheers

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

snip

Serbs were living in the Vojvodina in Turkish times as well. Besides, who else could be outnumbering them? The Hungarians fled from the Ottoman conquest, the Muslims fled from the Habsburg one, the Germans haven't settled there yet. Only the Romanians are present in potentially large enough numbers, but they'll definitely be rendered a minority once some of those Pannonian Serbs start moving in (joined by some Hungarians, but not enough of them). It doesn't make sense for Serbs to remain more numerous to the northwest of Vojvodina since that area is outside the Military Frontier. They eventually moved out of most of Transdanubia in OTL and they'll do the same in TTL.

 

[Valdemar II]

Voivodeship=Vojvodina. I meant any of the OTL incarnations of the Vojvodina since 1848. Thing is, my idea was to organize it out of the western regiments of the Military Frontier (which at this point comprises more territory than in OTL 1849 - see my first 2 maps in this thread). And Rakoczi wouldn't be a problem since the scenario in which Rascia is organized is one in which he's been defeated.

But wouldn't it alienate the Croats, that the Croatian and Slavonian military frontier was given to a Serbian duchy, even if it had a large Serbian population? While the later hate didn't exist yet, the Croats are likely among the more loyal Habsburg subjects. Plus it would make it harder to adminstrate than if it was a more centralised duchy.

I floated that idea myself earlier. The decision is ultimately up to their religious hierarchy.

I could see if we see a exodus of Serbs from Ottoman territories, it would be a large political advantage to make this shift. In OTL with the Serbian heartland as a Ottoman territorium and vassal, it made more sense to stay separate from Rome. While if they have their own state under the Habsburgs, and land of the later Principality of Serbia are dominated by a Muslim elite and the Serbs as in Bosnia have mostly left for the highlands as in Bosnia, moving closer to Rome and the Habsburg would only be a advantage.