How well would Germany supply the Arab armies? Unless I'm underestimating the alt-CP navies the Mediterranean will be heavily contested by Britain, France, the Ottomans, and Russia (since they can just sail through the straits ITTL). Likewise British support would probably be higher than OTL, since they have established armies to work with and supply. Plus in theory both Britain and Russia can directly reinforce the Ottomans-there won't be a Gallipoli this time around. An obvious advantage for the CPs would be that if Bulgaria and Greece did join they could directly threaten Constantinople. Taking it would be difficult, of course.
In a way, it seems there will be something of a Gallipoli, only with The CP besieging Constantinople...
Remember too that in this scenario we're assuming everything that went right for the OTL Entente goes wrong for TTL's Entente. So, ships and men will be considered too precious to donate to the Turks.
Another thing to consider is that a massive part of the Turks losing to the Arab Revolt was the destruction of the railways. The railroads are too dear to the Turks for them to do likewise, and once Constantinople is taken the CP can fairly easily supply the Arabs and support incursions by the combined forces of Greek, Bulgarian, and Northern Ottoman Rebels, not to mention small amounts of Italian, Austro-Hungarian, and German relief.
If the Briish and French figure they can't help and the Russians decide not to, we're looking at a pretty sizable victory in the OE by war's end with plenty of European CP soldiers and representatives hanging around for good measure.
You're probably right on that, though again depending on the situation in the Mediterranean the entente could potentially just land supplies in Anatolia.
If Jutland goes the other way, the Mediterranean, while certainly not a Central Powers lake, will be difficult to effectively control by the Entente. They need those ships elsewhere.
Possibly. Greece was pretty violently torn about who to back in WWI; given that both Britain and the Ottomans had lands Greece coveted, it seems more likely. Bulgaria wasn't any friend of the Ottomans either. Still I think something else would have to go right for the central powers, since ITTL Bulgaria would be facing Serbia and the Ottomans (and potentially Romania as well). They'd need some sense that Germany is going to win this.
Agreed, and thank you for handling my blind spot with your knowledge!
The first part is unlikely. Even if the Ottomans crumble, the British can swoop in pretty quickly. That does make it possible for the Germans to take control, either through treaty (difficult), or by slogging their way through Anatolia and Mesopotamia (also hard to envision).
Again, we're talking about a worse off Entente and a damned-lucky CP here.
Assuming the UK does abandon Egypt and the Suez (which is no small proposition, btw), the neatest solution would be Germany getting most of the Asian middle east while Italy gets protectorship of Egypt (and maybe Lebanon and/or Palestine if that's not sufficient). The Suez could be joint owned by Italy/Germany rather than Britain/France.
A giant German colony in the Middle East, and a German controlled Hashemite puppet state will be extremely interesting. An Italo-German Suez is its own marvelous timeline. As is an Italian Palestine. I can see a chunk of Anatolia going under Italian control as well, also big chunks to Greece and Bulgaria. I'd really like to see what the Hashemite-Saudi conflict looks like here. The Saud's are backed by the UK still (and India) and the Hashemites are backed by Austria and Germany.
I'd be astonished if Austria-Hungary gets anything out of this except maybe economic concessions.
What if they earned it? What if the war goes poorly enough for the Entente and Germany can help on the Eastern Front more as well, freeing up some room for Austro-Hungarians to go adventuring in the Ottoman lands? AH is a mess and will be, especially with yet another ethnically troublesome bite of the world, but the drama is worth it just to see AH squirm.
What if Austria-Hungary gets Syria and uses it as a penal colony for all these dissatisfied subjects? just a fun thought. Well, not fun, but interesting in the Chinese sense...
Good question. Possibly Greece, since they had a longstanding claim on the place; possibly Bulgaria, since they'd probably get there first and might not want to hand it over to Greece; possibly Germany under the guise of a 'free city' or something like that.
Combination of the three? Split the city in half: Bulgaria gets the European side, Greece the Asian side (and the lion's share of Turkey, mostly the west), and Germany has effective sovereignty over the whole 'free' city in name and practice?
An awkward but interesting arrangement, to be sure.
Aside from the question of Constantinople,the Greeks would probably get a couple of islands and the area around and including Smyrna/Izmir, as in OTL. As in OTL, holding that might not be as easy. Bulgaria would probably get lands in Thrace, including Edirne/Adrianople. Italy and Germany would probably divide Anatolia into spheres of influence, potentially carving out Kurdish and Armenian states to weaken Turkish power.
Kurdish and Armenian states are a must. I like that idea.
The fate of the Arabs could look very similar to OTL. As far as I know Germany wasn't any more sensitive than the entente vis a vis local borders. OTOH its tempting to say that things would be different if Germany gets more of the middle east than Britain did-say Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Hejaz, and Jordan-and combines it into a larger Arab state. If it succeeds in creating this puppet (or puppets) it would have access to a decent part of the world's oil supply, and be able to threaten British interests in the Persian gulf.
Similar or even worse, even with the increased German influence TTL over UK influence in OTL.
What comes next?
What does a Germanophile and German controlled Hashemite protectorate look like? How long until another World War? Germany is in great shape here, the Middle East in even worse shape.
Thanks very much for your thoughtful and knowledgable responses.
