In timelines where there is no major conflict in Central Europe and Czechoslovakian lands are undisturbed by either German or Soviet troops for how long is it probable for Czechoslovakia to exist as a single country? Would it be a peaceful dissolution? What happens to Subcarpathian Ruthenia, Zaolzie or the Sudetenland?
Dissolution of Czechoslovakia in WWII-less TLs
- Thread starter Magnificate
- Start date
Depending on the kind of government that takes power, Czechoslovakia could theoretically last as long as Yugoslavia did OTL. For shortest possible dissolution in the conditions you prescribe, you could have Poles/Soviets/Germans/Hungarians fund various secessionist movements, giving them guns, but not actually invading, and the country tears itself up in civil war by 1960. If there is no such intervention, it could last as long as Yugoslavia did OTL.
Valdemar II
Banned
Without WWII a dissolution is unlikely, the problem with Czechoslovakia was that when times was good for Czechia, it was bad for Slovakia and vice versa. Slovakia was a axis ally, Czechia a occupied territorium, the Russians was liberaters for the Czechs, while invading occupiers for the Slovaks, 68 was the Czech losing power, while the Slovaks gaining it. Without WWII you wouldn't see this, beside that Czechoslovakia woukld be etnic different with a large German and Ruthenian minority and a larger Magyar one too, which would make the Czech dominans less obivious.
I Blame Communism
Banned
I too am of the opinion that it's far from inevitable that Czechia and Slovakia fall out of love with each other. I think the governments in other countries and especially Germany are very important. If we have a Nazi regime humiliated in the Rhineland and stumbling on until the 50s, say, it can generate a world of hurt, whereas democratic Germany is good news for Czechoslovakia.
Valdemar II
Banned
The Poles still lives in Teschen, through as a minority, even before the war they were only the second biggest minority, with Germans being in plurality. But yes Czechoslovia was truely a mukltiethnic state.
Alex Richards
Donor
the only reason that Czechoslovakia collapsed was that a Slovak freindly faschist regime was followed by a Czech freindly communist regime. Otherwise the nation existed quite fine.
Bright day
Early 90' were a period of high nationalistic revival in post-communist countries. I ahve already written elsewhere that in the first census in democratic Czechoslovakia a record number of people delcared themselves to be of Moravian nationality, something which has since withdraw to obscurity. And even then the popular voice was for keeping the federation, public sentiment was pro-Czechoslovakia.
The reason Czechoslovakia fell apart was badly written constitution and badly established government. The federal and state governments as defined by constitution of 1968 were unworkable in situtation other the one-party communsit system. The rights and duties were too ill-defined and overlapping between the levels of government.
Early 90' were a period of high nationalistic revival in post-communist countries. I ahve already written elsewhere that in the first census in democratic Czechoslovakia a record number of people delcared themselves to be of Moravian nationality, something which has since withdraw to obscurity. And even then the popular voice was for keeping the federation, public sentiment was pro-Czechoslovakia.
The reason Czechoslovakia fell apart was badly written constitution and badly established government. The federal and state governments as defined by constitution of 1968 were unworkable in situtation other the one-party communsit system. The rights and duties were too ill-defined and overlapping between the levels of government.
Susano
Banned
Uh... you people all seem to forget something. Without WW2, it wont just be Czechs and Slovaks. There are also Germans and Hungarians (and yes, Poles and Ukrainians/Ruthenians, but those are rather neglectable minorities). So you cant just make CSs survival depend on the relation between Czechs and Slovakes! Certainly, the minorities taken togther are such a large part of the population that they can cause quite many problems, especially with help from the outside...
Faeelin
Banned
True, true. But here's the thig. Would anybody else be willing to go to war over it, or destablilize the nation? ven if poeople thnink the state is a joke, if nobody can agree what to do, then so what? And of course, it's not claear that the Germans and Hungarians would push for secessoin; they didn't through most of the 1920s, after all.
Susano
Banned
I think both states also had enough other worries during the 20s as it was. But yes, just because people would ideally like secession of the Sudetenlands/Upper Hungary doesnt mean theyd actually risk much over it. Hm, so do those territories become a sort of Northern Ireland/Basqueland?
Faeelin
Banned
I wouldn't say Northern Ireland; the Time of Troubles is too severe, IMO, and German-Czech tensions don't seem that high in the 1920s. It's possible, I guess, particuaarly if the Czechs seem to run the state to the detriment of the Sudeten Germans, but how likely is that to continue, in any TL?
Susano
Banned
It seems to me that IOTL the Czechs, as a 51% "majority", ran the state to everybodys else detriment, including the Slovakes, and that it took occupation and communist regime to at least moderate it. Without that happening... *shrugs* Maybe TTL has a sort of "1968", too, and in CS its focused on just that. But just as IOTL 1968 was followed by communist terror in the 70s... certainly such social upheaval is a good breeding ground for terrorist groups. And in the Sudetenland/Upper Hungary the Germans/Hungarians would actually be the majority, too, unlike the Ires ("Catholics") in Northern Ireland...
You know, Germans were part of most Czechoslovak interwar governments. Last time I checked Norther Ireland catholics did not have any minister in Westminster. Plus Weimar Germany was very fast in acknowledging Czechoslovakia in its' interwar borders. Of course it depends on situation in Germany, if there are still Nazi dissafection with Czechoslovakia will rise. OTL about 2/3 of Germans voted Sudetendeutchen Partei in 1935. By middle 1935 the party has almost 400 000 members. In 1938 they received about 90 percent of vote- after harassment of other German parties and increase of Hitler's rhetorics. After absorption by Germany 99 percent voted for NSDAP. So a lot depends on development in Germany.
Hungarians may be more problematic, though any problems they cause will strike against Slovaks and Ruthenians. Of course any Hungerian diversions will also be targetted against Siebenburgen in Romania and Vojvodina in Yugoslavia.
Faeelin
Banned
True, but the Czech state pursued a deflationary, protectionist policy that devastated Sudeten Germans while promoting Czech industries, even as the Slovakian economy stagnated. Hard not to see signs of favoritism there...
Possible, but unlikely.
I've always liked the idea for Sudetenland (and Gdansk/Danzig) to become like Taiwan/Hong Kong for an Anti-Capitalistic Germany (be it communist or nationalsocialist)
There where cases of political refugees fleeing to Czechoslovakia in 1933.