Discussion: Reform and revolution in 19th century China

[Timaeus]

So, I'm contemplating the possibilities for a 19th century Asian PoD TL, and one of the major areas is naturally Qing China.

My main questions are: At what point would reforming the Qing dynasty become impossible, and would it be possible to make a mid-19th century China, Qing or non-Qing, into a great (or at least regional) power before the 20th century?

 

[Little Red Bean]

The Qing did reform. The issue is that they lost political support from necessary elements (military, literati, non-royal elites, etc.) of the population even as the majority of the Chinese population likely supported them to the end. Unpopular reforms actually contributed to the loss of political support along with constant humiliation at the hands of Western powers (and eventually Japan).

Another possibly less important factor was the rise of a more European-style Han nationalism among the literati as resistance to the Qing became less about restoring the Ming and more about restoring Han leadership to the Han nation. And in response to the rising nationalism, unlike in many European countries, the royal family did not force themselves to adopt the ethnic traits of the majority group. In fact they did the opposite, quixotically clinging to their Manchu identity even as they had essentially become Han-ized. The alien royal family became an obvious target for revolutionaries like the Taiping and the Revive China Society.

Ultimately it was possible for the Qing to carry on for some more time than they did IOTL. If the Xinhai Revolution were viewed as more of a threat by Western powers, they would help crush it like they did the Taiping decades before. But a Qing surviving in such a way would merely shamble onward as a zombie-state, propped up by Western imperialists for the interests of themselves. Eventually a rebellion would succeed and the Qing would be toppled.

IMO in order to avoid being overthrow and be in a position to continue their program of reform, the Qing must succeed in resisting Western imperialism or, at the very least, avoid the string of humiliating defeats that occurred IOTL.

 

[Avrorrange]

In order for the Qing reforms to succeed,I think it is vital that they crack down on the corruption and incompetence first.One of the major problems the Qing faced was that even with the European instructors and equipment,they still manage to suffer humiliating defeats.Corruption and incompetence played a large role in this.I don't think this can be solved by the mid-19th century as corruption has become endemic.What was really needed was a thorough overthrow of the Qing regime and install new elites.

 

[Timaeus]

The Qing did reform. The issue is that they lost political support from necessary elements (military, literati, non-royal elites, etc.) of the population even as the majority of the Chinese population likely supported them to the end. Unpopular reforms actually contributed to the loss of political support along with constant humiliation at the hands of Western powers (and eventually Japan).

Another possibly less important factor was the rise of a more European-style Han nationalism among the literati as resistance to the Qing became less about restoring the Ming and more about restoring Han leadership to the Han nation. And in response to the rising nationalism, unlike in many European countries, the royal family did not force themselves to adopt the ethnic traits of the majority group. In fact they did the opposite, quixotically clinging to their Manchu identity even as they had essentially become Han-ized. The alien royal family became an obvious target for revolutionaries like the Taiping and the Revive China Society.

Ultimately it was possible for the Qing to carry on for some more time than they did IOTL. If the Xinhai Revolution were viewed as more of a threat by Western powers, they would help crush it like they did the Taiping decades before. But a Qing surviving in such a way would merely shamble onward as a zombie-state, propped up by Western imperialists for the interests of themselves. Eventually a rebellion would succeed and the Qing would be toppled.

IMO in order to avoid being overthrow and be in a position to continue their program of reform, the Qing must succeed in resisting Western imperialism or, at the very least, avoid the string of humiliating defeats that occurred IOTL.

So when exactly does this string of defeats by Westerners begin, and can I butterfly them away with an 1820s PoD? I assume the Opium Wars, but is it still too entrenched by then?

On the other hand, could the Qing destabilize earlier, resulting in a short war that enthrones a new dynasty? And what would have to happen to do so?

In order for the Qing reforms to succeed,I think it is vital that they crack down on the corruption and incompetence first.One of the major problems the Qing faced was that even with the European instructors and equipment,they still manage to suffer humiliating defeats.Corruption and incompetence played a large role in this.I don't think this can be solved by the mid-19th century as corruption has become endemic.What was really needed was a thorough overthrow of the Qing regime and install new elites.

Even in the 1820s?

I'm also interested in who could plausibly rise against the Qing to establish a new dynasty.

 

[Little Red Bean]

So when exactly does this string of defeats by Westerners begin, and can I butterfly them away with an 1820s PoD? I assume the Opium Wars, but is it still too entrenched by then?

To be honest the technology gap (and good luck fixing that without a PoD before the Mongol conquest) is such that I think China is going to get kicked around as soon as the West develops the ability to project power into the region regardless of who is in charge. You could nerf the West, but imo this will only delay the inevitable. For a 19th century PoD that results in a longer surviving Qing, you could always have a Chinese victory in the first Sino-Japanese War (not implausible at all). It was easy for many Chinese to dismiss defeats at the hands of Western powers as foreign devils with advanced knowledge and technology, but losing a war to a country widely viewed as inferior (Japan) served to discredit the Qing government even more. And of course after a victory over the Japanese, the Qing would feel less inclined to push unpopular reforms through, though this would only exacerbate issues in terms of being able to confront the West. It's a bit of a Catch 22.

 

[Intransigent Southerner]

and good luck fixing that without a PoD before the Mongol conquest

Uhh...is this a joke?

 

[GohanLSSJ2]

Could a POD on the XVIII century have worked?

Maybe China could get dragged into war with the Dutch in the 1740's or 1750's that serves as a wake up call?

 

[Intransigent Southerner]

Maybe China could get dragged into war with the Dutch in the 1740's or 1750's that serves as a wake up call?

The Dutch would lose, just as they did during their confrontation with the Ming. People don't realize how little a presence Europeans actually had on the coastline of China until the 19th century.

This might also lead to the South China Sea trade ban being resumed, which would be horrible for the Dutch.

 

[eliphas8]

Honestly, while maintaining a Manchu identity the Qing were likely incapable of modernizing China effectively. You can't import the technology and expertise of modernity without also importing the ideas which were also perceived to go along with them. The Qing modernizing effectively was always impeded by the fact that modernization essentially meant sidelining their main support structures.

If you overthrew the Qing very early on and replaced them with a Han Dynasty you'd likely have a much easier time modernizing China.

 

[Fredrick II Barbarossa]

Did an essay on this topic. What china faced was problems with population, provincialism, lack of money and rebbelions.

First off have the chinese prior to opium war send people to the west to learn more about their english enemies. Assume one of their emissiaries learns about advances in economics specifically greashams law on velocity of money. Than he returns and explains law to qing court. The court decides that rather than banning or destroying opium they tax and regulate it in china. Boom opium war averted since deal is a compromise and assume that in britain anti war party wins out against palmertson.

Lack of opium wars means lack of reparations and relations and unequal treaties and relations continue as always. Than otl rebbelions break out taiping buttefflied thiugh nian and hua probably happen and the qing struggle suffering defeats. In response the british french and russian governments not wanting a destablized china offer support and their aid crushes the rebbelion. During war the chinese get an understanding of western technology and machines eg steamships and realize junks are outdated. Having access to much more funds and more revenues from the lack of treaty ports and coastal trade the qing are able to spend enough money to actually build proper indusrries for weapoba of war that they lacked otl. The war leads to good relations with west and british naval officers imported who help provide the knowledge to fledglig chinese navy.


Basically for china to survive either butterfly opium wars, or prevent the yangtze rebbelions/loss of revenu from treaty ports and reparations. For steamshios coal is neccessary and so chinese build mines with the funds they have saved. Expensive to transport coal want self reliance so reluctantly and out of neccisity qing build railroad connectig the north china coal region with the shipyards and military academies. Leads to forward and backward linkages and as a result manufacturig and industry booms. Done. Provincialism coruption substance and handicraft farming and conservatism will remain bi problems though as too will population growth

 

[Intransigent Southerner]

Even if the Taiping are butterflied, why should there not be a similar revolt in Jiangnan?

It is also worth noting that no Taiping means no Hui violence in the northwest, maybe no loss of Xinjiang and the Nian (who also had Taiping support) are too rural and too incapable of taking cities to be a threat much greater than ie the Eight Trigrams or the White Lotuses. This would be within the normal range of unrest for post-High Qing and not require foreign support.

 

[Avrorrange]

So when exactly does this string of defeats by Westerners begin, and can I butterfly them away with an 1820s PoD? I assume the Opium Wars, but is it still too entrenched by then?

On the other hand, could the Qing destabilize earlier, resulting in a short war that enthrones a new dynasty? And what would have to happen to do so?



Even in the 1820s?

I'm also interested in who could plausibly rise against the Qing to establish a new dynasty.

Even in the 1820s.Corruption has become pretty endemic by the late 18th century.Some emperors,like Qianlong,basically turned a blind eye to it.

 

[Timaeus]

Could a POD on the XVIII century have worked?

Maybe China could get dragged into war with the Dutch in the 1740's or 1750's that serves as a wake up call?

The Dutch would lose, just as they did during their confrontation with the Ming. People don't realize how little a presence Europeans actually had on the coastline of China until the 19th century.

This might also lead to the South China Sea trade ban being resumed, which would be horrible for the Dutch.

As much as I'd love to see the Dutchmen lose (which they might with my PoD), this is too early. I specifically mentioned the 19th century for a reason.

Honestly, while maintaining a Manchu identity the Qing were likely incapable of modernizing China effectively. You can't import the technology and expertise of modernity without also importing the ideas which were also perceived to go along with them. The Qing modernizing effectively was always impeded by the fact that modernization essentially meant sidelining their main support structures.

If you overthrew the Qing very early on and replaced them with a Han Dynasty you'd likely have a much easier time modernizing China.

What do you mean by early? Like, would the 1820s be too late to modernize China?

Did an essay on this topic. What china faced was problems with population, provincialism, lack of money and rebbelions.

First off have the chinese prior to opium war send people to the west to learn more about their english enemies. Assume one of their emissiaries learns about advances in economics specifically greashams law on velocity of money. Than he returns and explains law to qing court. The court decides that rather than banning or destroying opium they tax and regulate it in china. Boom opium war averted since deal is a compromise and assume that in britain anti war party wins out against palmertson.

Lack of opium wars means lack of reparations and relations and unequal treaties and relations continue as always. Than otl rebbelions break out taiping buttefflied thiugh nian and hua probably happen and the qing struggle suffering defeats. In response the british french and russian governments not wanting a destablized china offer support and their aid crushes the rebbelion. During war the chinese get an understanding of western technology and machines eg steamships and realize junks are outdated. Having access to much more funds and more revenues from the lack of treaty ports and coastal trade the qing are able to spend enough money to actually build proper indusrries for weapoba of war that they lacked otl. The war leads to good relations with west and british naval officers imported who help provide the knowledge to fledglig chinese navy.

Basically for china to survive either butterfly opium wars, or prevent the yangtze rebbelions/loss of revenu from treaty ports and reparations. For steamshios coal is neccessary and so chinese build mines with the funds they have saved. Expensive to transport coal want self reliance so reluctantly and out of neccisity qing build railroad connectig the north china coal region with the shipyards and military academies. Leads to forward and backward linkages and as a result manufacturig and industry booms. Done. Provincialism coruption substance and handicraft farming and conservatism will remain bi problems though as too will population growth

So basically, to reform the Qing I'd need the Self-Strengthening Movement to start a generation or two early and to avoid the whole Opium Wars episode.

Would a decade (looking at butterflies, I'm considering 1820s as the original PoD, with butterflies starting to fly in the 1830s) be enough time for such a Chinese scholar to get into the court and butterfly away the Daoguang Emperor's edicts against opium?

Even if the Taiping are butterflied, why should there not be a similar revolt in Jiangnan?

It is also worth noting that no Taiping means no Hui violence in the northwest, maybe no loss of Xinjiang and the Nian (who also had Taiping support) are too rural and too incapable of taking cities to be a threat much greater than ie the Eight Trigrams or the White Lotuses. This would be within the normal range of unrest for post-High Qing and not require foreign support.

So it's plausible for a wider and more popular revolt to start a new dynasty within the timeframe I mentioned? Interesting.

 

[Avrorrange]

As much as I'd love to see the Dutchmen lose (which they might with my PoD), this is too early. I specifically mentioned the 19th century for a reason.



What do you mean by early? Like, would the 1820s be too late to modernize China?



So basically, to reform the Qing I'd need the Self-Strengthening Movement to start a generation or two early and to avoid the whole Opium Wars episode.

Would a decade (looking at butterflies, I'm considering 1820s as the original PoD, with butterflies starting to fly in the 1830s) be enough time for such a Chinese scholar to get into the court and butterfly away the Daoguang Emperor's edicts against opium?



So it's plausible for a wider and more popular revolt to start a new dynasty within the timeframe I mentioned? Interesting.

I once entertained if it was possible to make a timeline where Hong Xiuquan died before starting the Taiping movement and Xiao Chaogui somehow launched a secular anti-Manchu rebellion instead.Xiao Chaogui seems like a brilliant leader,and I think a rebellion under his direct leadership would be far more successful.