Did the Arab Kingdom of Syria ever have a chance to control all the lands it claimed?

Like it says on the tin. Could Faisal's kingdom of Syria ever have a clear shot at controlling all the lands it desired to, which stretched from modern day Syria all the way to Palestine and Jordan? Or would the European powers prevent that from happening?

Would preventing or scrapping the Sykes-Picot Agreement be enough? How about preventing the Balfour Declaration?

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Like it says on the tin. Could Faisal's kingdom of Syria ever have a clear shot at controlling all the lands it desired to, which stretched from modern day Syria all the way to Palestine and Jordan? Or would the European powers prevent that from happening?

Would preventing or scrapping the Sykes-Picot Agreement be enough? How about preventing the Balfour Declaration?

Book_of_the_Independence_of_Syria_%28%D8%B0%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%89_%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%82%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%84_%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7%29.jpg
Honestly this is incredibly difficult because British and French would both want part of it and would be willing to diplomatically divide Syria between each other and that Turkey would want the northern part of the kingdom ( Hatay Urfa etc) . The King Crane commission have a somewhat similar Syria with less territory in the north and south but OTL it would need a ASB to be accepted . The best solution would be to utterly weaken Britain France and Turkey the best way would be too make WW1 longer say late 1919 or early 1920 with an entente victory but the French and English to exhausted to maintain precense in the Middle East leaving Faisal do his own thing possibly with american support ? Who would have more politely weight with their bigger importance in the final victory in this ATL (and the French being accorded big influence in Lebanon ) not sure how much likely this is . Another scenario would be the French accepting Faisal as their proxy ruler in Syria or Faisal pulling a miraculous victory at Maysalun then the French accepting him as more autonomous proxy ruler of Syria him fighting French scheme of separating Lebanon and Syria from inside and stopping the French to offer Hatay to the Turk the British ceding an ATL Jordania with the land in the south that OTL Jordania don’t have and Palestine being divided under an autonomous Jew region of the kingdom and the Arab part directly integrated . Now if he want the exact frontier he would have to go to war with Turkey but most of the claimed land are in it . Now all of that need a brilliant use of diplomacy and military power but isn’t ASB . I don’t think preventing Sykes-Picot being enough the British french would probably still do a partition of the Middle East according to their interest
 
Honestly this is incredibly difficult because British and French would both want part of it and would be willing to diplomatically divide Syria between each other and that Turkey would want the northern part of the kingdom ( Hatay Urfa etc) . The King Crane commission have a somewhat similar Syria with less territory in the north and south but OTL it would need a ASB to be accepted . The best solution would be to utterly weaken Britain France and Turkey the best way would be too make WW1 longer say late 1919 or early 1920 with an entente victory but the French and English to exhausted to maintain precense in the Middle East leaving Faisal do his own thing possibly with american support ? Who would have more politely weight with their bigger importance in the final victory in this ATL (and the French being accorded big influence in Lebanon ) not sure how much likely this is . Another scenario would be the French accepting Faisal as their proxy ruler in Syria or Faisal pulling a miraculous victory at Maysalun then the French accepting him as more autonomous proxy ruler of Syria him fighting French scheme of separating Lebanon and Syria from inside and stopping the French to offer Hatay to the Turk the British ceding an ATL Jordania with the land in the south that OTL Jordania don’t have and Palestine being divided under an autonomous Jew region of the kingdom and the Arab part directly integrated . Now if he want the exact frontier he would have to go to war with Turkey but most of the claimed land are in it . Now all of that need a brilliant use of diplomacy and military power but isn’t ASB . I don’t think preventing Sykes-Picot being enough the British french would probably still do a partition of the Middle East according to their interest
Maybe have Britain just take the whole area and then it gains independence as one piece?
 
Maybe have British and French relations sour so much that Britiain just takes the whole area for itself
Well you have to find a way to do that and both French and British opinion were against any new war just occupying the whole Levant would just be that the most natural thing to do is not being to greedy and divide
 
Reactivating this discussion.

How about having the Entente win the war at roughly the same time as OTL but with a much greater cost in both money and human lives? Say Russia collapses in 1916, Verdun falls, Germans win the Race to the Sea, etc. Combine this with a scrapped Sykes-Picot and no Balfour Declaration just to make sure.

Would France and Britain be tired to the point of leaving Syria alone?
 
Maybe have Britain just take the whole area and then it gains independence as one piece?
France wouldn’t allow it and the British themselves wouldn’t want it

Is it possible, then, to imagine a version of the Great War where France and the Ottoman Empire end up on one side and the United Kingdom ends up on the other? I am not sure what the wider alliance systems would look like, nor the exact point of divergence to create them, but should Britain win this conflict, they will certainly be free to disregard France's input when partitioning the Levant.
 
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Reactivating this discussion.

How about having the Entente win the war at roughly the same time as OTL but with a much greater cost in both money and human lives? Say Russia collapses in 1916, Verdun falls, Germans win the Race to the Sea, etc. Combine this with a scrapped Sykes-Picot and no Balfour Declaration just to make sure.

Would France and Britain be tired to the point of leaving Syria alone?
Honestly I was thinking of a scenario like that such a scenario would leave both the Ottoman or Turkish successor state and more important British and French weakened enough to not really be in position to colonize Syria . Now France could still try to snatch Christian Lebanon away with local help but if France is suffering her own very big deal of instability at home that could happen . Now I still think it would be better to extent WW1 a little say 6 month to one year just to dry up the Entente even more and have a bigger anti war sentiment in Europe
 
Is it possible, then, to imagine a version of the Great War where France and the Ottoman Empire end up on one side and the United Kingdom ends up on the other? I am not sure what the wider alliance systems would look like, nor the exact point of divergence to create them, but should Britain win this conflict, they will certainly be free to disregard France's input when partitioning the Levant.
You need a very early Pod for that
 
Honestly I was thinking of a scenario like that such a scenario would leave both the Ottoman or Turkish successor state and more important British and French weakened enough to not really be in position to colonize Syria . Now France could still try to snatch Christian Lebanon away with local help but if France is suffering her own very big deal of instability at home that could happen . Now I still think it would be better to extent WW1 a little say 6 month to one year just to dry up the Entente even more and have a bigger anti war sentiment in Europe
Maybe we could have Jean Jaurès survive his assassination (fun fact: his assassin's surname was Villain) and become Prime Minister of France in 1919. As for Britain, IIRC they were more hands-off so maybe they could just let Faisal grab Palestine and Transjordan after a guarantee that he wouldn't persecute any minorities.

The only problem left now is Hatay/Alexandretta, but the Turks only grabbed in 1938 so maybe this Greater Syria would have enough time to prepare for it. IIRC its loss hurt Aleppo's economy very badly.
 
France wouldn’t allow it and the British themselves wouldn’t want it
Well, that actually depends. Britain would want it, it was just that getting it would require more than they were willing to pay. There are actually a number of places that you could change this.

Sykes-Picot discussions began because the British were beginning to consider crossing the Egyptian border into Palestine. This was an area of interest for both nations so it was thought that an agreement was necessary to avoid problems. However, the French, AIUI, did not have a definite set of war aims for the Ottomans Empire. Vaguely, if the Empire was to be carved up (which wasn't guaranteed in British or French thinking at this stage) then France would want Cilicia, Lebanon, and probably the coastline in between. It was only when the British came to them that they realized they had the leverage to ask for more land. In some ways Sykes-Picot was a bit of a steal for France. They were able to be considered an equal partner in an area that had been won mostly by British troops and local allies the British had done the negotiating with. If the British go into the negotiations determined to get Syria from the start (or just forget to consult the French as I understand it was a bit of a last minute scramble by diplomats as they realized the implications of the military's plans) then at this stage there is a good chance that they can get France to agree to Syria being in the British sphere in exchange for some concessions on French business interests and support on other French gains.

France did have significant investment in the area that had only started to be challenged by British and German investment in the run up to the war. So they will still likely want it. But if the British come in with bigger demands, the French can, I think, be bargained down to allowing Syria in the British sphere. It would help if this was all decided before 1916 when it becomes obvious that the OE is starting to break down and France is starting to give more importance to its colonial possessions as their economic salvation post-war.

If Britain does get control of the area then Faisal likely remains king of Syria and I think it is very possible that the British later unload Jordan to him (though probably not for free). Lebanon would be difficult due to French interest in the area, and Britain taking control of it might be a step too far. Palestine is also likely a sticky issue. With the Balfour declaration in place I am not sure if any agreement including Palestine in an Arab kingdom would be good enough. Without it, there is still an interest in international control of the area. It is possible international control could eventually break down and the area be transferred to Hashemites though?

Alternatively, there is the McMahon-Hussien correspondence which was going on at the same time as Sykes-Picot. somewhere along the way , it was realized that the demands of the Arabs and French were in conflict. There was enough grey area in both agreements that the British thought they were technically not in conflict but they more or less knew that one or the other would call foul if both were adhered to. It was considered that all three parties representatives should get together to work out the points of contention, but it was believed there was not time (remember this was supposed to be preliminary to an attack into Palestine). If the groups had all been brought together it is possible (though not guaranteed) that a solution working for everyone might have been achieved. Again, doing this earlier reduces French demands.

In any case, I think the best option for creating an Arab kingdom as defined in the OP is to do it at the negotiating table with Britain and France involved. If you have to weaken these powers to the extent that they cannnot intervene you have probably changed things to the extent that you have to worry about others doing the same thing.
 
Would there still be a way to pry Lebanon from France?
Maybe. If you have a federalized Syria, with lots of opportunities for French business interests, and are able to convince the Maronite Patriarch that such a thing would be in their interest (which might be a job in itself) that might do it. If France also got Cilicia and they were confident about it being profitable they may be less concerned about Lebanon (not unconcerned, just less). Again, France gets more attached to the idea of gains in the Middle East as time goes on and Lebanon is already in French crosshairs from the beginning.

Each step away from OTL is probably going to take more butterflies to make doable though. Getting Syria the way I have described takes a pretty important change in the diplomatic position of at least Britain to achieve. Getting Lebanon would require an even larger change in French diplomatic position as well.
 
Maybe. If you have a federalized Syria, with lots of opportunities for French business interests, and are able to convince the Maronite Patriarch that such a thing would be in their interest (which might be a job in itself) that might do it. If France also got Cilicia and they were confident about it being profitable they may be less concerned about Lebanon (not unconcerned, just less). Again, France gets more attached to the idea of gains in the Middle East as time goes on and Lebanon is already in French crosshairs from the beginning.

Each step away from OTL is probably going to take more butterflies to make doable though. Getting Syria the way I have described takes a pretty important change in the diplomatic position of at least Britain to achieve. Getting Lebanon would require an even larger change in French diplomatic position as well.
Maybe through British negotiations an Arab kingdom consisting of Syria, Mesopotamia, Transjordan, Palestine and Hejaz (maybe Yemen?) forms. And then afterward some diplomatic spat has them annex Lebanon from France in a war Goa-style
 
Maybe through British negotiations an Arab kingdom consisting of Syria, Mesopotamia, Transjordan, Palestine and Hejaz (maybe Yemen?) forms. And then afterward some diplomatic spat has them annex Lebanon from France in a war Goa-style
Mesopotamia would probably not happen right away at least not all of it. Basra and Baghdad vilayets are probably out at least until the British decide they are too much trouble to rule themselves. And they may be more hesitant to allow them to merge with a more powerful Arab state. In addition, there was a Shia majority in Mesopotamia that were not as Pan-Arabist as those in Sunni Syria. But it is not impossible.

Hejaz being included might depend on who is in charge of it, I doubt Hussein would be happy with Faisal ruling over him, so Hussein would probably have to be ruling the state. And I am not sure if that would be accepted by Syria or not. I assume there was a reason they chose Faisal IOTL.

All of this would require some important concessions to at least the British and possibly the French too. But those would likely be slowly lightened as time went on and their desire to enforce them fades.

France in the interwar period is not Portugal in the late 40's, and this Arab state would not be comparable to India at this time either. The comparative strengths are probably closer to that of Britain and Argentina in 1982. Goa is probably not a good comparison. In would likely require either very good diplomacy in the early period or waiting for colonial powers strength in the region to fade completely, while avoiding getting the US involved.
 
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