Development sans gunpowder

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The resources and manpower Europe used OTL to conquer the Americas is going to be spent keeping vassals in check, and the Americas are likely to be discovered later than in OTL.

This is only a factor politically: the kings might not agree to fund any harebrained schemes because of immediate concerns, even if it doesn't cost much. Otherwise, the costs of trans-Atlantic voyages weren't high in either money or manpower compared to OTL wars closer to home or even the circum-African route.

 

[Earth Judicar]

I think the colonization of the Americas will proceed with nobles or groups of nobles going over and conquering setting up keeps and holdings on the coast. The Indians will be devastated by diseases to be sure and the technological gap is still vast yet without firearms(which contrary to revisionist historians did matter even in the early days) will hold out longer and hold out better.

Eventually crown financed expeditions will occur and the Indians will be pushed backwards though they will win victories and given feudal infighting might adapt enough to force the Europeans into recognizing their rights and claims.

I also think Islamic colonization of the new world or parts of it is likely as well. I can see priests and Inams almost racing to convert as many new souls as possible.

As for the early modern era-I don't know it will be delayed by centuries in any case and given the abscence of gunpowder be unrecognizable to OTL observers.