Demographics of Timeline-191

[Hnau]

Someone might have already posted something for this, but I was astounded when I discovered that the Population Reduction, that is, the Black Holocaust in the CSA led to the deaths of six to ten million blacks. That's not just horrifying... I was looking through the Census of 1940, and, even without the population reduction from the Great War and other conflicts, there were only 9.1 million African-Americans in the territory occupied by the CSA by 1940. That means something like 90% of all the blacks are killed there, which makes sense, I guess, since in Germany 90% of all Jews were murdered in the Holocaust from 1942-1945. Still, its quite horrifying to think that the CSA nearly completely eradicated African-Americans from their territory... makes the OTL Holocaust seem even more horrible when I put it into a context closer to home.

Otherwise, would anyone like to make some guesses as to what happens, demographically, in this timeline. For one thing, China is probably depopulated quite a bit by the Japanese invasion. I once wrote a short Japanese Wins scenario, A Jiang-less World, and came to a figure of 50 million Chinese people killed by 1950, involving everything from the invasion of Manchuria on.

 

[Saladan]

From what I remember someone in the book itself even says something like almost the entire black population was killed with Confederate responses ranging from not caring to pissed or saddened that it didn't kill more.

 

[FDW]

my belief about TL-191 is population growth may be signifigantly higher than OTL. another thing to look at is the fact that demographics of the entire continent have had 80 years to change. my theory about this is that there is probhably 15-20 million blacks in the south at the beginning of the TL-191's WW2 this change can be accounted for by having fewer blacks immigrating to the north during the 1880-1920 period so based on the numbers you threw out Hnau, I would say theoreictally Featherson killed anywhere between 25% to 66% of the black population, and lastly one more thing to consider would be the population of northern blacks being captured during confederate advance north, of which I would there being some, oh yeah and cuba, thats depending upon who you talk too either has a large minority of blacks or that blacks are the majority. taking those into account it actually gets quite complicated.

 

[Venusian Si]

my belief about TL-191 is population growth may be signifigantly higher than OTL. another thing to look at is the fact that demographics of the entire continent have had 80 years to change. my theory about this is that there is probhably 15-20 million blacks in the south at the beginning of the TL-191's WW2 this change can be accounted for by having fewer blacks immigrating to the north during the 1880-1920 period so based on the numbers you threw out Hnau, I would say theoreictally Featherson killed anywhere between 25% to 66% of the black population, and lastly one more thing to consider would be the population of northern blacks being captured during confederate advance north, of which I would there being some, oh yeah and cuba, thats depending upon who you talk too either has a large minority of blacks or that blacks are the majority. taking those into account it actually gets quite complicated.

And didn't they essentially depopulate Haiti, while leaving Jamaica and the Bahammas Black populations alone?

 

[Melvin Loh]

And didn't they essentially depopulate Haiti, while leaving Jamaica and the Bahammas Black populations alone?

yeah, they tried, sinece they aimed initially at the military & ruling elites then expanded to the entire black population of Haiti (ie every man, woman & child), then the vengeful Haitian blacks got the upper hand, rose in mass revolt, hunted down & horrifically put to death any white Southerners they captured (with US help)...

as for Northern blacks taken & shipped to the Population Reduction camps, in the CS advance into the Midwest ( a la the ANV capturing Northern blacks during the Gettysburg campaign who were shipped south as slaves, or the EINSATZGRUPPEN killing squads in the conquered USSR systematically finding & exterminating Jews)- i'd say that there'd be very few in the overall scheme of things, given how small the TTL overall black population in the USA is. Hmmm, no mention is made of such exportation of CS atrocities by Flora Blackford or any of the (token) US black viewpoint characters.

 

[eschaton]

yeah, they tried, sinece they aimed initially at the military & ruling elites then expanded to the entire black population of Haiti (ie every man, woman & child), then the vengeful Haitian blacks got the upper hand, rose in mass revolt, hunted down & horrifically put to death any white Southerners they captured (with US help)...

as for Northern blacks taken & shipped to the Population Reduction camps, in the CS advance into the Midwest ( a la the ANV capturing Northern blacks during the Gettysburg campaign who were shipped south as slaves, or the EINSATZGRUPPEN killing squads in the conquered USSR systematically finding & exterminating Jews)- i'd say that there'd be very few in the overall scheme of things, given how small the TTL overall black population in the USA is. Hmmm, no mention is made of such exportation of CS atrocities by Flora Blackford or any of the (token) US black viewpoint characters.

Given Cincinnatius Driver manages to get out by virtue of his U.S. citizenship, I think the CSA would have been happy to exchange any black U.S. citizens they find across the front lines (where possible) and have it be someone else's problem. The Freedom party are not Nazis, despite the parallels - they never wanted to kill all black people everywhere, just their own black residents.

That said, I think it's clear at the end of the series almost all blacks are dead in the CSA. The only ones left seem to be partisans who were living out in the woods and swamps. All the cities and towns seem to have been cleared. I don't even remember there being many areas of the CSA which Union troops reached before they were "cleansed."

Of course, a scattered few were probably hidden in basements and the like. But 10% sounds like a nice round number of the surviving black population, with most of those likely male, meaning the population will plummet further, or be mostly mixed race, within a generation.

 

[Redem]

Of course, a scattered few were probably hidden in basements and the like. But 10% sounds like a nice round number of the surviving black population, with most of those likely male, meaning the population will plummet further, or be mostly mixed race, within a generation.

And this is how that world Barrack Obama get born

 

[Grimm Reaper]

The 1940 figure doesn't make sense compared to the African-American population in OTL plus the fact that in this TL millions of African-Americans aren't allowed to move north where the jobs are.

And for the Featherson as Hitler analogy to work there have to be enough African-Americans left to be a viable population, not a remnant too small for die-hard Confederates to no longer worry about.

One thing is certain, relations between Mexicans and blacks in this TL are utterly in the toilet.

 

[Trotsky]

Someone might have already posted something for this, but I was astounded when I discovered that the Population Reduction, that is, the Black Holocaust in the CSA led to the deaths of six to ten million blacks. That's not just horrifying... I was looking through the Census of 1940, and, even without the population reduction from the Great War and other conflicts, there were only 9.1 million African-Americans in the territory occupied by the CSA by 1940. That means something like 90% of all the blacks are killed there, which makes sense, I guess, since in Germany 90% of all Jews were murdered in the Holocaust from 1942-1945. Still, its quite horrifying to think that the CSA nearly completely eradicated African-Americans from their territory... makes the OTL Holocaust seem even more horrible when I put it into a context closer to home.

You have to remember that there was no Great Migration of blacks to the North ("United States") ITL. The South's ("Confederate States") black population would have been much significantly higher.

 

[Trotsky]

And didn't they essentially depopulate Haiti, while leaving Jamaica and the Bahammas Black populations alone?

Haiti's was mostly gone. The Bahamas were essentially British territory, and while the Confederate military (IIRC) were in control at the time, they didn't have the weight to reduce its population. And Jamaica was never invaded because the British never left it.

yeah, they tried, sinece they aimed initially at the military & ruling elites then expanded to the entire black population of Haiti (ie every man, woman & child), then the vengeful Haitian blacks got the upper hand, rose in mass revolt, hunted down & horrifically put to death any white Southerners they captured (with US help)...

I don't think that was how it ended. Last we heard about the Haitian campaign a U.S. combined arms expedition was landing on Haiti to retake the island, while the Confederate military did little to oppose it and mostly stuck to the camps and fortified areas. A re-run of the Haitian slave uprising was not mentioned at all.

as for Northern blacks taken & shipped to the Population Reduction camps, in the CS advance into the Midwest ( a la the ANV capturing Northern blacks during the Gettysburg campaign who were shipped south as slaves, or the EINSATZGRUPPEN killing squads in the conquered USSR systematically finding & exterminating Jews)- i'd say that there'd be very few in the overall scheme of things, given how small the TTL overall black population in the USA is. Hmmm, no mention is made of such exportation of CS atrocities by Flora Blackford or any of the (token) US black viewpoint characters.

I think we actually got two different takes on it. Cincinnatus Driver, while stuck in Kentucky, heard (not confirmed by anyone else) that the Confederate Army was actually harder on American blacks in the occupied USA than the Freedom Party was on Confederate blacks. Maybe that was his view because at the time he didn't know much about what was actually going on down in the Deep South beyond the rumor mill.

Later on we hear from someone else, I think it was Jefferson Pinkard to one of his interrogators before his trial, said that no one ever touched a hair on the head of any U.S. blacks, that the Holocaust was all confined to the Confederate States - and also Haiti, as someone reminded him.

 

[Melvin Loh]

Haiti's was mostly gone. The Bahamas were essentially British territory, and while the Confederate military (IIRC) were in control at the time, they didn't have the weight to reduce its population. And Jamaica was never invaded because the British never left it.



I don't think that was how it ended. Last we heard about the Haitian campaign a U.S. combined arms expedition was landing on Haiti to retake the island, while the Confederate military did little to oppose it and mostly stuck to the camps and fortified areas. A re-run of the Haitian slave uprising was not mentioned at all.



QUOTE]

dude, there was 1 reference in THE GRAPPLE, IRRC, with Sam Carsten delivering arms to Cuban rebels- incl a young Fidel Castro- that he recollects on the sitn in Haiti, where the blacks there, subject to Featherston's Final Solution (which also refers to how the population reduction did indeed start with the ruling elites, military etc but then targeted all black ppl on Haiti- which is virtually every-1 there), have indeed taken up arms & God help any white Confederate whom they capture...

 

[Petike]

yeah, they tried, sinece they aimed initially at the military & ruling elites then expanded to the entire black population of Haiti (ie every man, woman & child), then the vengeful Haitian blacks got the upper hand, rose in mass revolt, hunted down & horrifically put to death any white Southerners they captured (with US help)...

What OTL WWII nations or groups would the Haitans and other Carribean blacks represent in the ATL WWII of TL-191 ?

Because I just had a crazy idea : They could represent the uprising in the Warsaw ghetto... or something similiar...

 

[Melvin Loh]

What OTL WWII nations or groups would the Haitans and other Carribean blacks represent in the ATL WWII of TL-191 ?

Because I just had a crazy idea : They could represent the uprising in the Warsaw ghetto... or something similiar...

mate, there was also the 1943 Richmond ghetto rising, which is the analogue to the Warsaw Ghetto rising in TL-191- hmmm, maybe somewhat of a larger scale of the Sobibor or Auschwitz concentration camp rebellions ?

 

[Petike]

mate, there was also the 1943 Richmond ghetto rising, which is the analogue to the Warsaw Ghetto rising in TL-191- hmmm, maybe somewhat of a larger scale of the Sobibor or Auschwitz concentration camp rebellions ?

Possibly... But it's a somewhat different situation.

 

[Hnau]

You have to remember that there was no Great Migration of blacks to the North ("United States") ITL. The South's ("Confederate States") black population would have been much significantly higher.

Ah, you are right. That's a little easier to calculate. The First Great Migration from 1910 to 1940 saw 1.6 million African-Americans migrate to the North from the South and to California. With that figure, I can figure out a new number for the African-American population in the CSA as of 1940 in TL-191, accounting for population growth. Give me a few minutes, maybe an hour.

 

[Hnau]

Okay, in the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia, in OTL the population of African-Americans increased from 7.93 million to 8.88 million between 1910 and 1940. However, these states also saw 1.6 million African-Americans migrate northward and westward out of the South.

In TL-191, this "First Great Migration" of African-Americans does not occur because of the militarized CSA-USA border. By 1940, the population of African-Americans in these states are equal to 10.57 million. Population growth of those African-Americans who remain in the CSA is accounted for.

What is not accounted is divergent population shifts caused by the shorter American Civil War, the independence of the Confederacy and the impact that will have on demographics, also the possibility of depopulation and low birth-rates caused by the Second Mexican War and the First World War. The geography could also complicate numbers... for example, the separation of part of Houston and also part of Arkansas, from the CSA, which would allow for migration of blacks northward in those territories. When Kentucky and Houston are returned in the Richmond Agreement, that would also place more African-Americans under CSA rule (at least 214,000, that number from 1940 Kentucky).

 

[Nae'Blis]

Would the U.S. have allowed a large influx of blacks into their newly conquered states after the Great War? I seem to remember them opposing that.

 

[Polish Eagle]

What OTL WWII nations or groups would the Haitans and other Carribean blacks represent in the ATL WWII of TL-191 ?

Because I just had a crazy idea : They could represent the uprising in the Warsaw ghetto... or something similiar...

Warsaw Ghetto is referenced in the Richmond uprising.

I think Haiti, being a place where they attempt to implement the final solution but a strong resistance emerges, is more an analogue to the forested regions of Belarus, Poland, Lithuania, and Russia where Jews hid out and formed partisan bands (like in that movie, Defiance).