Dean for America: A Different 2004 Election (And Beyond)

Who should Howard Dean choose as his running mate?

  • Senator from Louisiana Mary Landrieu

    Votes: 29 39.2%
  • Senator from Florida Bob Graham

    Votes: 29 39.2%
  • Senator from Indiana Evan Bayh

    Votes: 16 21.6%

  • Total voters
    74
  • Poll closed .
Maybe a campaign worker points out to them that the only polls that count are the primary and caucuses votes, the Gallup polls means nothing. So don't act like you won it until the delegate count in your favor is insurmountable. Unless Dean accepts that he will lose. Voters don't like being left out of the process.
Okay cool. Makes sense. I'll make sure to incorporate that somewhere. Thanks!
 
The Road to Super Tuesday
The Road To Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday was less than a month away (March 2), and while the four major candidates left in the race were gearing up for that day, there were still 11 contests between Mini-Tuesday and March 2's slate of contests. Howard Dean realized that polls were showing his support dropping. His campaign correlated this with his attitude, which at times could seem aloof and arrogant. Dean reined himself in and allowed surrogates to campaign for him while he worked on adjusting his public image. On February 5, Dean spoke at a rally in Muskegon, Michigan and told the voters that he would never take them for granted again. He apologized for his arrogance. While Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards attacked Dean for what they saw as a showy public apology, his support rose. On the 7th, Dean won by a small margin in Michigan over Kerry and won by more 10% of the vote in Washington in a very impressive victory over Kerry, who had said for weeks beforehand that Washington would be the turning point of his campaign. Dean also won the Maine Caucuses by a landslide a day later on the 8th. Maine was not heavily contested, even by Kerry.
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Kerry campaigning in Washington

February 10 became the day that Kerry had been waiting for. In Tennessee and Virginia, Gephardt, Edwards, and Dean attacked each other while Kerry stayed out of it, rising to the top of the divided pack and winning both states by more than 15 points.

February 14 was the day of the Nevada Caucus. Edwards needed to win the state to keep his campaign from stagnating, but he came in fourth place. Gephardt surprised everyone by prevailing in Nevada, shutting out Kerry and Dean who'd been the frontrunners in that state for weeks.
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Light blue Gephardt, Dark Blue Kerry, Green Dean

Also on February 14 was the D.C. Caucus, which Dean won in a landslide.

On February 17, was Wisconsin. Though it was a Dean win, Kerry expanded his delegate earnings while Gephardt fell back into second place and Edwards fell even further behind.

The last contests before Super Tuesday were Idaho, Hawaii, and Utah. Dean and Gephardt functionally tied in Idaho, while in Hawaii Dean exerted his strength and won, and in Utah, Gephardt dominated. The pack was nearly even, but Super Tuesday was about to change things...
 
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Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday

March 2, Super Tuesday, had arrived, and it held the most delegates in a single day of voting. It was absolutely critical, no matter if your campaign was the frontrunner (Dean's) or was dying out (like Edwards'). Dean hoped he could keep up the lead over Kerry, however Kerry was besting him in polls in most of the larger contests. The candidates crossed their fingers as the results came in:

In Connecticut, Kerry bested Dean by a 20% margin as expected. In Georgia, the primary that Edwards had been counting on, Kerry again prevailed by a decent margin. Kerry also won in Maryland, upsetting Dean, who had compared the state to Delaware, but forgot to take into account the large factor Lieberman had on that state. Kerry also won in his home state of Massachusetts by a landslide.

In Minnesota, Dean won not only the primary but also the endorsement of the Independence Party of Minnesota. In Rhode Island, Kerry won yet another prize, and in Vermont, by a margin upwards of 50%, Dean won an enormous landslide in his home state.

New York was a bitter fight between Kerry and Dean, and the results showed that Kerry had bested Dean by only a few hundred votes. It was a functional tie. In Ohio, another dead heat race, Dean was the one who prevailed. In California, the biggest delegate prize of the night, Dean bested Kerry by a 7% margin. Gephardt settled for a distant third place. He had won no Super Tuesday states and his delegate deficit grew larger.

Edwards, however, was the biggest loser. Privately, he had decided that if he lost Georgia, he would withdraw. Shocking all of the pundits, the voters, and indeed his fellow candidates, Edwards dropped out of the race, but not before endorsing John Kerry. The race had just gotten very, very interesting.
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John Edwards withdraws from the race
 
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Primary Progress Part 2
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Dean has carried 15 states and D.C. He is still the clear frontrunner but Kerry is making him nervous. Dean has amassed a small but so far sufficient amount of superdelegate endorsements.
Kerry has carried 8 states and is in second place currently. With his large amount of superdelegates behind him, Kerry's Super Tuesday boost and Edwards' endorsement has caused an upwards inflation of his poll numbers which may gave him an insurmountable lead.
Gephardt has carried 5 states, but not one from Super Tuesday. He has slipped to third place and is attempting to garner loyal superdelegates.
Edwards has only carried one state so far, South Carolina. After his dismal performance on Super Tuesday, he has withdrawn and endorsed Kerry.
 
Another Brief Look At The Republicans
Another Brief Look At The Republicans

By the time Super Tuesday had finished, George Bush had all but clinched the Republican nomination as expected, but Chafee refused to exit the race. In debates, Chafee emphasized how the military had embarrassed itself in the failure of Operation Red Dawn and the Iraq War was quickly becoming a nightmare. Moderates supported Chafee nearly 2 to 1, however he was seen as a young upstart who was bent on ruining his own party. The President tried to reassure moderates that he was still the candidate who understood them most, but he was losing moderate states by ever growing margins. Chafee had succeeded in injuring Bush's approval ratings: they had dropped to their lowest point since the President's inauguration, around 43%.
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The state of the Republican race after Super Tuesday
Bush has won 20 contests and has almost reached the number of delegates needed for the nomination.
Chafee has won 9 states and D.C. He has essentially lost the nomination, but continues his protest campaign.
 
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March and April
March and April

The primaries were halfway over, and on March 5 a poll was released which absolutely humiliated Howard Dean:
Kerry: 39%
Dean: 34%
Gephardt: 24%
Others: 3%
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Dean campaigning after his first major loss in a poll

It was the first time any national poll showed Dean was not in the lead. Shocked, his campaign began to focus nationally rather than on individual states, to see if Dean could take advantage of certain demographics or voting blocks. The first contests after Super Tuesday were on March 9. Kerry hoped this would be another big day, and he was partly right.
Polls closed in American Samoa, giving Dean a narrow win over Kerry. In Louisiana, Kerry took advantage of Edwards' endorsement and sailed to a strong victory. The same occurred in Mississippi, shutting out Gephardt, who desperately needed some victories in the delegate-rich south. Texas offered an interesting result: Kerry easily prevailed in the primary, but Gephardt narrowly finished ahead of Kerry in the caucuses. Dean had been shut out, but he knew that the South wasn't his territory. However, he made up for it with a solid victory in Florida. Florida had preferred Kerry all the way up to a week before the primary, when on Super Tuesday, Dean was endorsed by the Florida Democratic Party and Senators Bob Graham and Bill Nelson. March 9 essentially ended in a tie between Kerry and Dean, and Gephardt was stuck wondering when his next big victory would be.
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Gephardt campaigning in Texas

On March 13, Gephardt got his wish after winning more than 50% of the vote in Kansas and securing almost all of that state's delegates. He could finally respond to claims that his campaign wasn't successful with a hard fact. He had won a state in a landslide.

March 16 was another important day. It was the day of the Illinois Primary. Dean felt confident that he could win there, but once again, he lost to Kerry who bested him by 11% and Gephardt, who bested him by 7%. The now-infamous poll that showed Dean's momentum slipping was coming to light.
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The results in Illinois

On the 20th, Gephardt won both contests: in Alaska and Wyoming, and won them convincingly.

On the 27th Dean easily won the Expatriates Caucus.

April 13 held the Colorado Caucus, which Gephardt carried easily, Dean being a distant runner-up.

The primaries were almost over, but the race was about to heat up even more...
 
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Fallujah
Fallujah

In early April, several U.S. contractors were killed in the Iraqi city of Fallujah. As a result, on the 4th, the U.S. military began a campaign to "pacify" the city that harbored Baathist insurgents. What was seen as a quick strike soon turned into a month long battle. The military was forced back out of the city by the insurgents who were supported by remnants of the military controlled by still-free Saddam Hussein. By May, the military was forced to abandon their base of operations in Camp Baharia outside the city, effectively surrendering the city. By May 16 (the battle is longer in ATL), the battle was officially over. The Democratic candidates and Lincoln Chafee were quick to attack Bush for this failure. The public's approval for the Iraq War was at an all-time low and Bush's approval ratings fell below 40% for the first time. In future years, pundits, the public, the President and the candidates all agreed that the battle was not only the turning point in the 2004 election, it also marked a defining moment in the Iraq War and in the first decade of the twenty-first century.
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The city of Fallujah
 
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Howard Dean himself considered the change from insurgent to front runner and establishment the hardest thing. Every time he tried the crowd went flat and he returned to the more pleasing insurgent argument. With that in mind I think the POD needs to effect the top echelon of Dean's campaign team. Someone needs to blow up and be fired/quit over the "positive campaign" Dean insists on, which brings in someone that can help Dean rope in the establishment support he needs.

“The hard part was that internally you get sucked into being adored by thousands of people who just hang on your every word and you’re trying to dial it back,” Mr. Dean said. “I found myself reaching back for the fiery applause line that I knew I shouldn’t be doing because the crowd, it would just light ‘em up. That was fine in the room, but it wasn’t fine for the country, who wanted to vote for somebody who looked like a president.”

Other than that, I'm certainly intrigued so far :)
 
The Final Primaries
The Final Primaries

There were 15 more primaries to be contested after Colorado. No pundit expected it, but it seemed that the final primaries would be essential to the candidates. Howard Dean had the most popular support, however, the Party viewed him as an extremist and outsider. Most superdelegates had instead endorsed John Kerry, and because of this, even though he remained five points behind in the popular vote, he was actually ahead when it came to delegates. Gephardt's fading campaign had limited national support, and many were calling for him to drop out of the race. He did not.

On April 17, Dean barely won the Virgin Islands Caucus. He had not been expecting a good night for him as the other contest in North Carolina was favored to go to Kerry. However, a huge surprise came when John Edwards, who had dropped out of the race back on Super Tuesday, won North Carolina by a comfortable margin. This was due to a small lobbying group called NC For Edwards, which advertised Edwards as a candidate who, by winning his state, could affect the party platform at the convention. Kerry was angered by this, as North Carolina was a large state that would have helped him greatly towards achieving the nomination. Said Kerry: "Though I owe it to Senator Edwards and many of his supporters for my success, I must express that I am angry at his diehard fans. If I was your second choice candidate, now your first choice, why have you denied me a victory that would keep our mutual enemies from the nomination?" Kerry was seen as overly angry and a little bit whiny, and his poll numbers dropped.

On April 27, Kerry's dropping in polls was obvious as Dean won Pennsylvania and Guam, both contests in which Kerry had had a slight lead before. Dean had by now blocked Kerry and Gephardt from receiving a majority of pledged delegates.

May 4 was the primary in Indiana, which Kerry won convincingly. However, Kerry had a major setback when in a debate two days before the primary, Dean and Gephardt united in calling Kerry a hypocrite (Kerry claimed that his military service in Vietnam made him fit for being commander-in-chief, however, he had also been a peace activist.) when it came to the military. The candidates also criticized Kerry over his views on Iraq. Said Dean at the debate: "Senator Kerry, you have yet to criticize President Bush for his failure in Fallujah. You as a soldier should know better." That night, several superdelegates switched their allegiance to Dean.
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Dean criticizes Kerry

A week later on the 11th were the contests in Nebraska and West Virginia. Gephardt easily carried Nebraska. Kerry was on line to narrowly beat Dean in West Virginia but only days before made a gaffe in which he promised that if elected, the coal industry would be replaced with clean energy. On election night there, Kerry got third. Dean got just shy of 45% of the vote and won.
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Results of West Virginia (Green is Dean, light blue is Gephardt)

May 18 was the date of three primaries: Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oregon. Kentucky went predictably for Kerry and Oregon, likewise, went for Dean. However, Arkansas was interesting. Back before Iowa, the Arkansas Democratic Party endorsed Wesley Clark. However after Clark withdrew, the party did not withdraw its endorsement and continued to campaign for him. As a result, Clark won the Arkansas primary by a slim margin. Gephardt gracefully accepted his defeat there, but once again Kerry complained, and once again, his poll numbers dropped.

June 1 held contests in Alabama and South Dakota. As expected, Kerry won Alabama by a large margin. South Dakota, however, was a narrow win for Gephardt after Senator Tom Daschle endorsed Howard Dean. Gephardt hoped he could sweep the delegates there, but settled for a little more than half on election day.
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Senator Daschle endorses Howard Dean

June 6 was the Puerto Rico caucus, which, like the other territories, Dean narrowly won.

June 8 held the last 2 primaries: Montana and New Jersey. In Montana, Dean prevailed over Gephardt by winning in Missoula County and the other population centers such as Helena and Billings. In New Jersey, Kerry won a little less than 50% of the vote in a landslide victory.

The primaries had ended, but no candidate maintained a delegate majority, with or without superdelegates. The convention in July was going to be contested. As Howard Dean boarded his plane in Missoula early in the morning of June 9, a reporter asked him what his thoughts were about the upcoming convention. Dean answered simply: "This'll be fun!"
 
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The Results of the Democratic Primaries
The Results of the Democratic Primary
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Dean has won 25 contests and is still the obvious leader, with a large lead from pledged delegates and a substantial amount of superdelegates behind him. All in all, this gives him a slight delegate lead heading into the convention. 39%, 8,870,147 votes
Kerry has won 16 contests and is only a few dozen delegates behind Dean. With major support from the power structure of his party, Kerry has at least one advantage over Dean. 33.9%, 7,710,205 votes
Gephardt has won 11 contests. His populist campaign turned out to be a regional one as it only appealed to western unions and laborers. He has minimal support and is several hundred delegates behind Dean. 16.1%, 3,661,779 votes
Edwards has won 2 states through his withdrawn campaign. He intends to attend the convention and work on shaping the platform with his 100 or so delegates. 3.3%, 750,551 votes
Clark has won one state, Arkansas. He won it after he dropped out of the race. Clark, like Edwards, plans on attending the convention and shaping the platform with his delegates, which number approximately 50. 2.6%, 591,942 votes
Others 5.1%, 1,159,942 votes
TOTAL VOTES CAST: 22,743,967

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County results
 
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A Final Brief Look At The Republicans
A Final Brief Look At The Republicans

The campaign between Bush and Chafee had gotten mean, and to many, hilarious. After a debate where Chafee questioned Bush's charisma and competence, Bush's right hand man Karl Rove, in a fit of anger, retorted that "Senator Lincoln Chafee has all the charisma of the logs he was named after."* This made Bush's campaign seem childish and unprofessional, and his approval ratings dropped a little bit more. Bush and many journalists asked Chafee the same question: "By challenging the incumbent, are you saying that you don't want to see your party win this year?" to which Chafee responded with the same cold answer: "I want to see the Republicans win the White House this year, not George Bush."

By the time June 8 rolled around, Bush had easily clinched the nomination, but not after destroying his public image and public approval ratings. Chafee's campaign was the first to seriously challenge an incumbent since 1992, when Pat Buchanan damaged George H.W. Bush's shot at reelection and the most successful since Ted Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter, which effectively handed the White House to Reagan.
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Bush has won 38 contests and is the presumptive Republican nominee. However, the road through the primaries has lowered Bush's approval rate from approximately 50% to approximately 40%. 69.8%, 6,281,121 votes
Chafee has won 18 contests and slightly more than 2,700,000 votes out of nearly 9,000,000 votes. That's approximately 30% of the vote, the best challenge to an incumbent since Pat Buchanan. 30.2%, 2,717,620 votes
TOTAL VOTES CAST: 8,998,967


* I got that joke from Stephen Colbert
 
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This is the part I've been waiting for. :evilsmile: Announcing the Vice Presidential nominee! Some names I came up with were:
  • Senator from Wisconsin Russ Feingold
  • House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi
  • Senator from Florida Bob Graham (My personal favorite choice)
  • Governor of Iowa Tom Vilsack
  • Senator from Delaware Joe Biden
  • Congressman from Missouri Dick Gephardt (Not sure if Dean would select him after such a hard fought primary season)
  • Senator from Louisiana Mary Landrieu
  • Governor of Virginia Mark Warner
  • Senator from Indiana Evan Bayh (My second personal favorite choice after Graham)
  • Senator from Illinois Dick Durbin
  • Former Senator from Georgia Sam Nunn
I also can't wait until 2008. Are you going to keep John McCain as the Republican nominee or are you going to have someone else nominated?
 
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This is the part I've been waiting for. :evilsmile: Announcing the Vice Presidential nominee! Some names I came up with were:
  • Senator from Wisconsin Russ Feingold
  • House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi
  • Senator from Florida Bob Graham (My personal favorite choice)
  • Governor of Iowa Tom Vilsack
  • Senator from Delaware Joe Biden
  • Congressman from Missouri Dick Gephardt (Not sure if Dean would select him after such a hard fought primary season)
  • Senator from Louisiana Mary Landrieu
  • Governor of Virginia Mark Warner
  • Senator from Indiana Evan Bayh (My second personal favorite choice after Graham)
  • Senator from Illinois Dick Durbin
  • Former Senator from Georgia Sam Nunn
I also can't wait until 2008. Are you going to keep John McCain as the Republican nominee or are you going to have someone else nominated?
That list looks pretty similar to mine. Also in regards to 2008, I really don't know yet.
 
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