DBWI: What if Russia retreated from Georgia in 2008?

[ajm8888]

As we all know the Russians invaded Georgia (the country) in 2008 and began to take the country bit by bit until by 2010 the entire nation was under Russian control.

My question what would the outcome be if Russia left Georgia in 2008? Would the US still have an ambassador in Moscow and vice versa? Would Russia not be dealing with internal problems as they are now? Would NATO not have troops in Ukraine?

OOC: The central premise of this DBWI is the 2008 Russian Invasion of Georgia (the country). The Russians kept their troops in Georgia after the invasion and took over the nation. If this is ASB the mods can move it. But be creative if you want.

 

[BigBlueBox]

There was a certain Russophilic element present in the American right, but that pretty much disappeared after Russia annexed Georgia. But who knows, maybe America could have even elected as president some demagogue who wanted to cozy up with Russia if the annexation never happened.

 

[Lalli]

I don't see why Russia would withdraw from Georgia. But if it would do that, probably EU and Nato wouldn't invent so much to Belarus and Ukraine.

 

[DrakonFin]

We would have been much better off in general, I think, to avoid the last (nearly) decade's deterioration of relations between Russia, US and Europe as well. Putin could have avoided this process by having his troops withdraw promptly after giving the Georgians a lesson - without the occupation and "regime change", the criticism in the West towards a limited Russian invasion would have likely been much less drastic than IOTL. I think the Western sanctions against Russia could have been avoided, pretty much entirely, and also Russia's countersanctions. All in all, I think the sanctions have put a significant dent in economic growth in many places, mainly in Russia but also in several smaller European nations that used to do a lot of business with Russia before 2009.

 

[Lalli]

We would have been much better of in general, I think, to avoid the last (nearly) decade's deterioration of relations between Russia, US and Europe as well. Putin could have avoided this process by having his troops withdraw promptly after giving the Georgians a lesson - without the occupation and "regime change", the criticism in the West towards a limited Russian invasion would have likely been much less drastic than IOTL. I think the Western sanctions against Russia could have been avoided, pretty much entirely, and also Russia's countersanctions. All in all, I think the sanctions have put a significant dent in economic growth in many places, mainly in Russia but also in several smaller European nations that used to do a lot of business with Russia before 2009.

Yes. Surely Finland would had recovered from recession of '08. But Russia too not look so good. And probably in Sweden and Finland wouldn't be so much vocal support for Nato.

 

[DrakonFin]

Yes. Surely Finland would had recovered from recession of '08. But Russia too not look so good. And probably in Sweden and Finland wouldn't be so much vocal support for Nato.

I think the Finnish and Swedish support for joining of NATO has been boosted by the general escalation, and the growth in Russia's military activity in the Baltic Sea area. But then we need to remember the Kökär incident in 2011 as well. Like we Finns well know, the Russian transport plane that crashlanded in the Ålands demilitarized area during the Russian "Zapad 2011" exercise caused a major boost in the support for NATO here, even if it probably was a honest accident. It definitely affected the 2012 elections here when Katainen's NCP adopted a pro-NATO line in its campaign and won 52 seats.

In all honesty, I find it hard to see how we could have a NATO referendum scheduled for 2018 if it wasn't for the escalation of Russia-West tensions since 2008 and all the crap it has brought about for Finland as well - the Pekka Hartikainen kidnapping by the FSB in 2014, for example, or the ludicrous way the Anton Salonen case in 2009 created tensions between Helsinki and Moscow.