DBWI: Reverse the fates of the PRC and the USSR

[FillyofDelphi]

ASBish, China was too damaged by Mao to recover

Yes, just like every other time in the last several millennia China completely broke down into warlord states. Never recovered, for the Mandate of Heaven was lost don't you know

China would reunify and recover eventually. It may take a few decades, but the forces of mutual identification are too strong to be torn asunder permanently by Mao's policies. Now, it recovers as a vastly weakened state and I wouldn't be surprised if the economy remains depressed and underdeveloped.

 

[Alpha-King98760]

OOC: Well, this is going way off the rails here. Let's not continue this, please.

IC: Okay, disturbing rumors aside, if the PRC never collapsed, would we still see the rise of the Triads in Hong Kong and California?

I don’t believe we would see a rise in the Triads because there wouldn’t be so many destitute Chinese refugees that turned to organised crime.

OOC: Don’t worry no more craziness from me.

 

[RousseauX]

Yes, just like every other time in the last several millennia China completely broke down into warlord states. Never recovered, for the Mandate of Heaven was lost don't you know

China would reunify and recover eventually. It may take a few decades, but the forces of mutual identification are too strong to be torn asunder permanently by Mao's policies. Now, it recovers as a vastly weakened state and I wouldn't be surprised if the economy remains depressed and underdeveloped.

It would take 50-100 years, I don't see it happening in 25 even with a 1976 PoD

 

[NullPraxis]

My suggestion would be to not have Zhou Enlai be purged by Mao early on in the PRC's lifetime, especially shortly after the Korean War. Without his detente and diplomacy, Mao wouldn't have been as grotesquely excessive and might've seen merits in his policies. A detente with the West and East, formal non-alignment, and such would've opened up the Chinese quicker like the Yugoslavs.

A result you might see a split between the Soviets and Chinese, ideologically speaking. I don't know what the Soviets would be like after that, but I'm pretty dang sure they'd not be as pinkie keen towards reforms in the economy.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

IC: Okay, disturbing rumors aside, if the PRC never collapsed, would we still see the rise of the Triads in Hong Kong and California?

Probably not...

Speaking of Hong Kong, things would be quite different there. If the PRC was still alive and thriving, I doubt the British would still be the ultimate authority. They’d’ve had to return the New Territories and without that the island would have been difficult if not impossible to retain.

Granted, Hong Kong is a self-governing territory now rather than a Crown Colony, but the Brits still handle defence and have a fair amount of economic influence, plus the Governor could in theory override the legislature. In practice I doubt it, but...

 

[Xgentis]

Look like the Taiwan is going to expand again very soon. Do any of you know the public opinion of the inhabitants of the island of Taiwan?

 

[Alpha-King98760]

Look like the Taiwan is going to expand again very soon. Do any of you know the public opinion of the inhabitants of the island of Taiwan?

The Taiwanese people are pretty divided actually, half of them are pro-expansion and the other half is content with the territories they hold.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

Look like the Taiwan is going to expand again very soon. Do any of you know the public opinion of the inhabitants of the island of Taiwan?

The Taiwanese people are pretty divided actually, half of them are pro-expansion and the other half is content with the territories they hold.

Taiwanese expansionism is one reason that the people of Hong Kong are still happy to have the Brits around - they really don't like the idea of getting swallowed up.

I doubt Taiwan would turn that way. On land, they outnumber the garrison in HK, but the RAF units at Kai Tak could make life very difficult for an invading army and the ROC Air Force is fairly thinly spread...plus the RN keeps a couple of their nuclear attack subs between HK and Brunei, they'd be murder against the ROC fleet.

Plus Australia and New Zealand both agreed to help defend HK against any foreign aggression.

 

[Alpha-King98760]

Taiwanese expansionism is one reason that the people of Hong Kong are still happy to have the Brits around - they really don't like the idea of getting swallowed up.

I doubt Taiwan would turn that way. On land, they outnumber the garrison in HK, but the RAF units at Kai Tak could make life very difficult for an invading army and the ROC Air Force is fairly thinly spread...plus the RN keeps a couple of their nuclear attack subs between HK and Brunei, they'd be murder against the ROC fleet.

Plus Australia and New Zealand both agreed to help defend HK against any foreign aggression.

The KMT renounced its claims on HK last year, though.

 

[EternalCynic]

The KMT renounced its claims on HK last year, though.

The KMT as a now obscure opposition party did, but the Republic of China government hasn't. And, it's an open secret that many of the triads in Hong Kong are working with the RoC intelligence community and are able to exert significant influence on the city's politics and business (e.g. by strong-arming HSBC into giving low-interest loans into triad-affiliated businesses, and by inciting boycotts of elections into the UK-backed government). There's a reason why the Royal Hong Kong Police have only a token presence in Kwun Tong, Kowloon Bay, and Tseung Kwan O. Over in Taipei, it's openly discussed that the "Chinese Patriotic Volunteer Association" could bloodlessly liberate the territory before the British could even lift a finger.

 

[Alpha-King98760]

The KMT as an opposition party did, but the Republic of China government hasn't.

True.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Folks, as much as I too like trying to dissect the shrouded policies of First Minister Keung's government, I think we may be straying off topic here by focusing to much on OTL's current events.

 

[Alpha-King98760]

Folks, as much as I too like trying to dissect the shrouded policies of First Minister Keung's government, I think we may be straying off topic here by focusing to much on OTL's current events.

Right, sorry. Anyway, I believe a surviving liberalised PRC would face pro-independence protests by ethnic minorities down the line due to them believing economic liberalisation equates to political change. I believe that there’d be a serious crackdown by the People’s Liberation Army in response to these protests just like the Soviet Red Army launched a crackdown on Lithuanian independence demonstrators in 1990.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Right, sorry. Anyway, I believe a surviving liberalised PRC would face pro-independence protests by ethnic minorities down the line due to them believing economic liberalisation equates to political change. I believe that there’d be a serious crackdown by the People’s Liberation Army in response to these protests just like the Soviet Red Army launched a crackdown on Lithuanian independence demonstrators in 1990.

Which ones? The Cantonese seen like an obvious choice, being so close to British and Portugese "Western" influnces out of Hong Kong and Macua, but what about the Uhgars? Hui?

 

[Alpha-King98760]

Which ones? The Cantonese seen like an obvious choice, being so close to British and Portugese "Western" influnces out of Hong Kong and Macua, but what about the Uhgars? Hui?

My guess is all three.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

My guess is all three.

Can they surpress Canton though? They're a far larger and less Han-integrated group and region than any part of the USSR, with its urban votes everywhere being more or less Russian strongholds. Maybe, with sufficrnt measures, but that's going to draw Imperial and American opposition and sanctions

 

[Alpha-King98760]

Can they surpress Canton though? They're a far larger and less Han-integrated group and region than any part of the USSR, with its urban votes everywhere being more or less Russian strongholds. Maybe, with sufficrnt measures, but that's going to draw Imperial and American opposition and sanctions

But if Beijing felt threatened enough I believe they’d do it.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

But if Beijing felt threatened enough I believe they’d do it.

Losing access to the Sterling and Dollar blocs... I don't know if they can survive that. Any liberalized economy worth it's salt is going to need a free trade policy and if their legitimacy is based on prosperity. I guess it depends on how strong the domestic consumer base and banking sector is, but the loss of oil and natural gas access alone... it's going to be an uphill battle. Maybe if Ussr (it collapsed in this timeline, right?)sucessor states can stay out of western dominance one of them could be China's gas tank?

 

[Alpha-King98760]

Losing access to the Sterling and Dollar blocs... I don't know if they can survive that. Any liberalized economy worth it's salt is going to need a free trade policy and if their legitimacy is based on prosperity. I guess it depends on how strong the domestic consumer base and banking sector is, but the loss of oil and natural gas access alone... it's going to be an uphill battle. Maybe if Ussr (it collapsed in this timeline, right?)sucessor states can stay out of western dominance one of them could be China's gas tank?

That’s a definite possibility.

 

[Miss Teri]

Which ones? The Cantonese seen like an obvious choice, being so close to British and Portugese "Western" influnces out of Hong Kong and Macua, but what about the Uhgars? Hui?

What about the Tibetans? After all, they were very persistent, and the current Kingdom has support from the West.