DBWI: No Sino-Soviet War

I suspect Western Europe wouldn't be the economic powerhouse it is today.

I mean, the Thames is full of shipping and the airports are full of planes.

Philosophically and historically, 1969 is treated like 1918 and 1945 as the third of the great "years" of the 20th Century. 1918 saw the end of dynastic autarchy, 1945 saw the defeat of Naziism and Fascist authoritarianism and 1969 saw the fall of Communism and State Imperialism.

I recall the triumphalist notions of the "Victory of Democracy" in the 1970s perpetrated by leaders like Reagan and Thatcher who swept to power as centre-left Governments withered in the aftermath of the Communist suicide.

I feel ashamed now to be honest - it was no "victory" with tens of millions dead and millions even now, fifty years or more on, dealing with the after-effects, both humanitarian and environmental, of the stupidity of Brezhnev, Mao and others.

With Communism gone and socialism discredited, the "New Conservatives" swept to power in the mid to late 1970s. In Britain, the Labour Party fell apart after the Sino-Soviet War leading to the long years of Conservative rule but as we now nature abhors a vacuum and the coming of Blair's revivalist "Social Democracy" and Gary Hart's "Third Way" swept the Conservatives aside and we've had a generation of centrist rule which has spread across western Europe.

As we know, the fall of the USSR led to turmoil across Eastern Europe and the eventual fall of its neo-Stalinist regimes and the reunification of Germany in 1975. Brandt is seen by many as the Father of Reunification but the economic cost of re-vitalising the DDR was only a pause. The European Economic Union expanded where the former NATO could not. The Pax Americana no longer required a NATO which ended in the mid 70s and evolved into a Europe-wide humanitarian operation to support the refugees from the post-Soviet civil war and, perhaps more important, to work with UNFISMATRECO to ensure any nuclear material in the former USSR was found and accounted for.

The various nuclear incidents in Asia and the Middle East in the 1980s showed the initial failure of UNFISMATRECO to find all the uranium let alone the actual warheads but it got better under George HW Bush after 1984.

America doesn't of course have a nuclear monopoly though it has overwhelming superiority - we know the UK, France, Israel and South Africa have the Bomb and it's suspected other countries do too.

Western Europe has prospered - with the "threat" gone, military expenditure was cut right back and the arrival of new sources of cheap labour and raw materials has provided western Europe with a huge economic advantage. Trade barriers came down progressively and the politically-aligned nations are again talking about a European Federation by the mid-2030s.
 

colonel

Donor
Don’t forget how long it took the European Economic Union to recover. Remember they put a hold on new membership in the aftermath of the war so that by the time they changed course and took new members in 1975 the U.K. was no longer interested and the Commonwealth, despite the problems caused by the India -Pakistan exchange in 1972, was so organized that Ireland also rejoined. The subsequent cooperation of the core countries of the UK, Ireland , New Zealand, Canada and Australia making a free trade pact with the US under the leadership of Bush and Blair created a juggernaut that made the world economically capable of dealing with the literal and figurative fallout from the wars.
 
We had some truly spectacular sunsets on the west coast thanks to the amount of ash in the atmosphere. I’d imagine we wouldn’t have had them, and the photos taken of them, without the war.
On a more serious note, there wouldn’t have been all the anti-Chinese riots that tore California apart during the aftermath. Mom still remembers seeing Chinese shop owners perched on the roofs of their shops, armed with rifles and shotguns, ready to defend the lives they’d finally managed to carve out for themselves.
 

colonel

Donor
Don’t forget how long it took the European Economic Union to recover. Remember they put a hold on new membership in the aftermath of the war so that by the time they changed course and took new members in 1975 the U.K. was no longer interested and the Commonwealth, despite the problems caused by the India -Pakistan exchange in 1972, was so organized that Ireland rejoined. The subsequent cooperation of the core countries of the UK, Ireland , ...
My wife just reminded me that Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth was really a term of the joint sovereignty agreement brokered by the US, but I would argue that were Britain not scared to death at the thought of the IRA getting one of the newly loose nukes we would likely have the troubles to this day.
The UK did get some territorial benefit from the Sino-Soviet War, as no one objected to it holding on to Hong Kong to this day.
 
My wife just reminded me that Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth was really a term of the joint sovereignty agreement brokered by the US, but I would argue that were Britain not scared to death at the thought of the IRA getting one of the newly loose nukes we would likely have the troubles to this day.
The UK did get some territorial benefit from the Sino-Soviet War, as no one objected to it holding on to Hong Kong to this day.

the UK only got away with that because they paid to renew the lease in the 70s. And since Taiwan couldn't pay for reconstruction on its own it accepted. When 2099 comes around you will be stuck losing it.
 

colonel

Donor
the UK only got away with that because they paid to renew the lease in the 70s. And since Taiwan couldn't pay for reconstruction on its own it accepted. When 2099 comes around you will be stuck losing it.
I know you’re correct, but why wasn’t there a similar setup for Macao? The Portuguese ran it until 1999, but instead of even talking to Taiwan or one of the other Chinas it turned administration over to the European Economic Union. I believe it was just the Europeans way of stemming the flow of Chinese refugees by sending them to Macao.
 
So, a really random butterfly, but: Cambodia's probably a lot worse off. The Chinese were backing the Khmer Rouge there. No Sino-Soviet War, an undivided China watching Vietnam, and there's basically no way Pol Pot ever gets overthrown, meaning that the Cambodian Genocide presumably just drags on and on.

I don't think it's an exaggeration to state that the only thing stopping the Domino Effect from continuing forever was the Sino-Soviet War. Add in the massive benefits for international communism of a stable and united block consisting of Russia and China- something like 70% of Eurasia- and, basically, I suspect that the long run result is going to be a disaster for freedom. The communist countries can just sponsor insurgency after insurgency to slowly chip away at the Third World, and the West has no comparable response.

In spite of all the harms; the millions dead and the fallout days: Thank God we live in a world where the Communist bloc fell apart!
 
OOC: By Sino-Soviet War, you mean World War III? Because barring the threat of nuclear holocaust, I can't see how two major powers like that going to full-out war without it ballooning. The biggest nation on the planet and its most populous warring? Ruh roh
 

colonel

Donor
OOC: By Sino-Soviet War, you mean World War III? Because barring the threat of nuclear holocaust, I can't see how two major powers like that going to full-out war without it ballooning. The biggest nation on the planet and its most populous warring? Ruh roh
OOC: Because of the status of the belligerents as 2 of only 5 declared nuclear powers at the time, and it being a border dispute, other powers would likely not get involved. Possibly some intervention if it drags on, but in this scenario the war could have ended quickly after the nuclear exchange. The damage would be enormous but the actual fighting over quickly.
 
OOC: By Sino-Soviet War, you mean World War III? Because barring the threat of nuclear holocaust, I can't see how two major powers like that going to full-out war without it ballooning. The biggest nation on the planet and its most populous warring? Ruh roh
Whose side, exactly, would the other three nuclear powers be on? As far as they are concerned it is a fight between their enemies. Let them fight it out and gut each other. Why would Washington risk New York to save Moscow's hide? Why would France risk Paris for Beijing?
 

colonel

Donor
Whose side, exactly, would the other three nuclear powers be on? As far as they are concerned it is a fight between their enemies. Let them fight it out and gut each other. Why would Washington risk New York to save Moscow's hide? Why would France risk Paris for Beijing?
I think if you read carefully the two prior posts are in agreement - the other powers nuclear and non-nuclear would sit out the conflict, especially if it ends quickly after any nuclear exchanges that may effect areas outside the belligerents' territories.
 
The maoist rebellion in india would lead to a full blown civil war for starter and nk would probably still survives
 
I think if you read carefully the two prior posts are in agreement - the other powers nuclear and non-nuclear would sit out the conflict, especially if it ends quickly after any nuclear exchanges that may effect areas outside the belligerents' territories.
redjirachi was the one who said it would start WW3 which is the opposite what you and I were saying.
 

colonel

Donor
The maoist rebellion in india would lead to a full blown civil war for starter and nk would probably still survives
Had the Sino-Soviet conflict not gone nuclear, would India and Pakistan even develop the weapons? If so would they still have had their own nuclear exchange in 1978 (or I should say half exchange since the Pakistani weapon's failure to detonate as planned essentially just turned it into a dirty bomb).
 
Had the Sino-Soviet conflict not gone nuclear, would India and Pakistan even develop the weapons? If so would they still have had their own nuclear exchange in 1978 (or I should say half exchange since the Pakistani weapon's failure to detonate as planned essentially just turned it into a dirty bomb).
Thats an interesting view yeah a lot of pacifist in those 2 country really bogged down the development of the nuclear weapons program and even nuclear reactor
 
Lower worldwide rates of cancer as a result of the lack of fallout could be a blessing, or a curse; without it being such a prevalent disease, especially in countries like Japan and India and other nations in Asia, there might be much less research into effective treatment for it. We'd also probably know a lot less about treating radiation-related diseases in general, and without the nuclear exchanges during and in the periods after the Sino-Soviet war, we might also not have the knowledge we do about properly treating severe thermal burns. Of course, in a world that doesn't experience so much devastation and tragic loss of life, technology might be more advanced in general anyway.
 
Another thing worth noting is how without either China or the USSR to support them, the Viet Cong quickly collapsed due to the advantage South Vietnam had with all its support.

Likewise no such war likely butterflies Cuba's eventual uprising against Castro after he bit off more than he could chew in terms of picking a fight with Jamaica. Much less Castro trying to fiddle with Jamaica in the first place.
 
Another thing worth noting is how without either China or the USSR to support them, the Viet Cong quickly collapsed due to the advantage South Vietnam had with all its support.

Likewise no such war likely butterflies Cuba's eventual uprising against Castro after he bit off more than he could chew in terms of picking a fight with Jamaica. Much less Castro trying to fiddle with Jamaica in the first place.
Then of course South Vietnam opted to take out the Khemer Rogue and gun down Pol Pot and his ilk.
 
Best thing South Vietnam ever did.
Considering the virtually successful genocide of all Vietnamese people not in the Viet Kong in Cambodia, and the Cambodian claims on much of the delta area, it was pretty much a matter of life and death. If we don’t have this happening, maybe North Vietname and Cambodia join together in some sort of union?
 
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