DBWI: No Second Mexican War

[Snowstalker]

What if the United States never went to war against the Carranza government in 1916 over the Pancho Villa raids? A few things to consider here:

1. Would Wilson still have lost his reelection bid?
2. Without a distraction in Mexico, would the United States gotten directly involved in the First Great War?
3. Who would have ended up winning the Mexican Civil War without direct US involvement and the creation of the United Front?
4. The war significantly soured popular opinions of Washington in the rest of Latin America. Would the United States have more influence in Latin America as a whole than it does IOTL? Would Falangism still have caught on?

 

[Deleted member 109224]

What if the United States never went to war against the Carranza government in 1916 over the Pancho Villa raids? A few things to consider here:

1. Would Wilson still have lost his reelection bid?
2. Without a distraction in Mexico, would the United States gotten directly involved in the First Great War?
3. Who would have ended up winning the Mexican Civil War without direct US involvement and the creation of the United Front?
4. The war significantly soured popular opinions of Washington in the rest of Latin America. Would the United States have more influence in Latin America as a whole than it does IOTL? Would Falangism still have caught on?

1. Wilson lost despite winning the popular vote OTL to Hughes. I imagine California, and thus the whole election, could swing towards Wilson without the Mexican War.
2. Maybe. The Mexican War was a big enough headache that the most the pro-intervention Hughes could do was initiate the second quasi-war, in which the US announced it would unleash the full extent of the United States Navy against the Imperial German Navy in response to the continued violations of American neutrality. I think continued German aggression would have resulted in the US doing something to retaliate - whether that means full involvement or something resembling OTL is debatable however.
3. Carranza already controlled most of Mexico when the US got involved OTL, so it'd still be Carranza and the constitutionalists. The big impact of the US intervention was that it strengthened Carranza's political hand - him being able to blame the Villistas and Zapatistas for the foreign intervention meant that he was able to marginalize their political influence on the Mexican Constitution.
4. Had the constitution been more radical, there'd have been land reform, limitation of the power of the catholic church, and more constitutionally-guaranteed workers protections. OTL Mexican Politics ended up splitting between the religious-falangist and the liberal right in the 20th century.

 

[GeorgeBailey]

The easiest changes are that Baja, Sonora, and Chihuahua aren't in the US. Also Yucatan wouldn't be independent either.

On the Europe side of things, America's almost certainly going to focus there attention overseas if Mexico isn't uppity. Something more than just Roosevelt's Volunteer Force after Mexico was done in 1918, maybe full involvement if Germany keeps harassing them.

Although a World without The Last Ride is no world I want to be a part of, it's one of my most favorite movies.

 

[Snowstalker]

On the Europe side of things, America's almost certainly going to focus there attention overseas if Mexico isn't uppity.

What a debacle that was...

 

[Braden Anderson]

Without strong anti-Mexican sentiment, the US might gradually succumb to the appeal of cheap labor from south of the border. You might see corrupt billionaires lobbying to actually open the border and allow them in. As with the Irish and Italians, they would support whatever politician vowed to let more of them in, creating corrupt political machines a la Tammany Hall all over South Texas and California.
In an extreme case, we could have ended up with parts of the American southwest not even speaking English.

Thank god for General Pershing, I would hate to see that happen to my country.

Also there probably wouldn't be so many Mormons around the California Gulf. I took a road trip to Cabo and along the way it was town after town of Mormons. Constitution City has a cool monument to the Mormon Battalion btw. The beaches are real funny there because the girls wear these big one-piece suits with skirts instead of bikinis. Good waves though, unlike at my beach house in Arizona (good for views, bad for surfing).

I can't find the quote but Westmoreland said that basically, our military doctrine in Vietnam was dependent on jungle doctrine developed on the Yucatan front during the 2nd Mexican war. Also, Mayan commandos in the MACV-SOG played a huge role in countering VM guerrilla tactics. This is a stretch, but without that experience, and without that Mayan tropical expertise, is it possible that the US could actually lose to North Vietnam? I mean it sounds ridiculous but people overlook how close parts of that war got. What do y'all think?

 

[LuckyLuciano]

Also there probably wouldn't be so many Mormons around the California Gulf. I took a road trip to Cabo and along the way it was town after town of Mormons. Constitution City has a cool monument to the Mormon Battalion btw. The beaches are real funny there because the girls wear these big one-piece suits with skirts instead of bikinis. Good waves though, unlike at my beach house in Arizona (good for views, bad for surfing).

There's also the fact that without the California Gulf states, Mormonism would be severely stunted. I have a hard time believing that it could become so prevalent in those states under a Mexican administration. If Mormonism remains relegated to Utah, we probably never get a President like Romney. As governor, he put Chihuahua on the map! I mean can you believe that people used to visit that dinky 'grand canyon' or whatever it's called instead of the far larger and cooler Copper Canyon?

 

[Braden Anderson]

As governor, he put Chihuahua on the map! I mean can you believe that people used to visit that dinky 'grand canyon' or whatever it's called instead of the far larger and cooler Copper Canyon?

Hahahah I hadn't thought of that! I guess it would be the best we'd have. I wonder what other national parks would be different? Would the everglades be a more popular tourist destination assuming west coast people couldn't visit Magdalena Bay? IK the everglades are better but I'm not going to drive across the country just to see it, when I can get a similar experience down in Man of War Cove. Plus, you can camp on the barrier islands. Last spring break we spent a night out there, one day of surfing on the west bank and another snorkeling in the bay.

Fun fact, Magdalena Bay is where the USN hid the I-400 & I-401 before taking them into the California Gulf for more testing. Where do you think they would have taken them if this wasn't an option? You can't just have them in Hawaii because it had to be totally secret from the Soviets.

If the US doesn't intervene in Mexico, what happens once the Rep. Yucatan declares independence? Would they seek to join the entente? I mean they're right next to Belize. Back in the 1840s Yucatan (technically the second republic) sought cession to the UK as well as the US, as the Caste War placed them in a desperate situation.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

If the US doesn't intervene in Mexico, what happens once the Rep. Yucatan declares independence? Would they seek to join the entente? I mean they're right next to Belize. Back in the 1840s Yucatan (technically the second republic) sought cession to the UK as well as the US, as the Caste War placed them in a desperate situation

No way. The Yucatan economy was on a shoestring well into the 50's and taking a politically active stance would have been suicidal in anything over a pro forma declaration. Besides, the Entente was hemoraging cash, so it's not like it would attract investment capital in the coming decades. I'm gonna be honest, I really don't think the US is going to actively be involved in Europe myself, but if it is this dosen't apply

 

[LuckyLuciano]

Yucatan might not even rebel. While the socialistic policies of Governor-General Salvador Alvarado did anger many hacendados and elites, much of the revolution was reliant on American dollars and arms secured Manuel Castilla Brito. If there's no war, I doubt America would be willing to negotiate with Brito, and if he did return to Mexico like OTL, I doubt he would have the means to even retake the state of Campeche, let alone overthrow Alvarado and unify the old Yucatan lands like he did OTL.

 

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm gonna be honest, I really don't think the US is going to actively be involved in Europe myself, but if it is this dosen't apply

Well if there is no Mexican War, and Hughes still manages to beat Wilson, maybe he decides to escalate the quasi-war to actually sending troops to Europe. A peace dictated by USA instead of by the Papacy would be quite different. After all, the Peace of Rome was quite forgiving. The assassinations of the Wilhelm the 2nd and Georges Clemenceau during the Red Revolts thoroughly spooked Europe into signing Benedict XV's peace, essentially returning Europe to pre-war condition (with new guarantees of peace). Hell, Hughes would probably never accept such a peace, at least not a peace that doesn't give America heavy reparations. It would look good on paper, but no doubt would just worsen the Red Revolts and cause France and Germany to fall to communism. I shudder just thinking about a Soviet Union allied to Germany and France during the World-Wide War.

Also, if the US were to join the Great War, perhaps we'd be calling that war the first World-Wide War and then the OTL conflict the Second World-Wide War. The Great War might not even be colloquially called "The Suicide of Europe" as it is OTL, after all, it was the Pope who first used that term.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Well if there is no Mexican War, and Hughes still manages to beat Wilson, maybe he decides to escalate the quasi-war to actually sending troops to Europe. A peace dictated by USA instead of by the Papacy would be quite different. After all, the Peace of Rome was quite forgiving. The assassinations of the Wilhelm the 2nd and Georges Clemenceau during the Red Revolts thoroughly spooked Europe into signing Benedict XV's peace, essentially returning Europe to pre-war condition (with new guarantees of peace). Hell, Hughes would probably never accept such a peace, at least not a peace that doesn't give America heavy reparations. It would look good on paper, but no doubt would just worsen the Red Revolts and cause France and Germany to fall to communism. I shudder just thinking about a Soviet Union allied to Germany and France during the World-Wide War.

Also, if the US were to join the Great War, perhaps we'd be calling that war the first World-Wide War and then the OTL conflict the Second World-Wide War. The Great War might not even be colloquially called "The Suicide of Europe" as it is OTL, after all, it was the Pope who first used that term.

Just because there's no Mexican War dosen't mean the US is going to stop watching the Southern border and suddenly get involved in deep foreign entanglements. Especially since even without the war the southern border is still going to be ceasepool of instability and without the rising tensions so close to home there's no way you'd be able to get the public to sign on the Preparedness Act to start building up the absolutely microscoptic army (It was smaller than Bulgaria's in 1916... BULGARIA!) so as to make a difference. Sending guns over was one thing:the American arms industry was already swelling from the orders by the Entente during the previous years and so iit was hardly a shift, and just created more jobs. But sending over American boys to die in the meat grinder for the sake of a few coastal shipping magnates? Any president who suggested that would get shot down by the Senate and would kill his chances in the next electiion, and Hughes victory was already pretty slim. It took the shock of the "Massacre in Manila" by the Reds in China during the World Wide War to shake them out of their Western Hemisphere isolationism and actually give two cents about the world outside their backyard enough to actually send over soldiers.