DBWI Bush vs Gore went differently

[Accurateworldwar]

What would have happened if the Supreme Court voted 5-4 to stop the Florida recount instead of letting it continue, allowing VP Gore to win Florida and the Presidency by a mere 213 votes, they ordered to stop the recount and let George W. Bush become President? What would the effects be?

 

[GeographyDude]

Given the facts of September 11th, clearly the same war against the Taliban in Afghanistan (although a few scholars have written that if we had gone in and just targeted Al Qaeda, privately and briefly informing the Taliban but not asking their permission, at the end of the day the Taliban may have decided that a war against the United States was not in their self interest).

I think we would have had the same war against Iraq.

Now, a lot of people have talked about how Governor Bush was very skepical of nation building during the campaign. In addition, Bush would not want the perception that he fought the war for revenge against the Iraqi assassination attempt against his father. Not that this would be a decisive factor, but it would be some weight on the scale.

But once you make public ultimatums, the future war is sliding down the tracks and is almost a foregone conclusion.

And Bush would have faced the same situation where Iraq partially complies with sanctions and partially does not. And face the same national security establishment and diplomatic establishment which wants to be activist and do more. And once we go the route of coercive diplomacy, although not quite a foregone conclusion, maybe only one out of three chances of avoiding war?

So, be my guest, paint a scenario where a hypothetical Bush presidency avoids the more damaging second war which the Gore presidency did not. I just don't think our odds are real great.

 

[GeographyDude]

Representative John Conyers, who became President Gore's point person on energy policy and slowing climate change.

President-elect Gore learned from former President Carter's mistakes in overpromoting and overpushing energy policy. The incoming president realized that he had already promoted and preached climate change a royal shitload [that's the technical political science term]. He decided he would go with the first halfway reasonable plan which gained momentum. And when Rep. Conyers' resurrection of his plan from the previous session did so, the new president went with it.

As President Gore said at the signing ceremony, "This is a medium step, and it's an excellent medium step. And then the American public can see how they like it. And that kind of is what democracy is all about."

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Who would be Bush's point person on energy conservation and slowing climate change?

Instead of a mixed strategy like President Gore, Bush would probably lean toward only having a carbon market, but might take too much of a purist approach. Or, Bush might advocate too much funding for projects favored by the technocratic wing of the Republican Party, such as moves toward a hydrogen economy. Which to a considerable extent are long shots and pie in the sky.

 

[Mr. Magi]

Honestly, I think the main difference would be domestic; Bush was a bit of a budget hawk and also heavily pushed for accountability in Education and national standards. I'm not sure if he'd do better domestically to be honest here, since his efforts as Governor of Texas was mixed; his No Child Left Behind Initiative did raise Texas up a few notches in terms of performance overall, but the main benefits for the students was weighted towards affluent districts, which could meet the standards more easily. Although he did also offer a reverse tax for the poorest in exchange for the cuts he tried to make. I don't imagine he'd be able to really work domestically with this term and I reckon he's glad he dodged what Gore had to deal with.

Energy wise, I know he both advocates oil production and energy independence from OPEC. He does fracking and an increase in offshore drilling since the petro industry is a big money maker for Texas. I'd also predict he'd probably go with hydrogen and fund that presidentially, which I see as something that just takes time and technology to make it more efficient. I'd say he'd also support biofuels like ethanol and alginates; it's a common support platform for the GOP along with the paleofuels and hydrogen.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . his efforts as Governor of Texas was mixed; his No Child Left Behind Initiative did raise Texas up a few notches in terms of performance overall, but the main benefits for the students was weighted towards affluent districts, which could meet the standards more easily. Although he did also offer a reverse tax for the poorest in exchange for the cuts he tried to make. . .

Yes, a mixed bag.

But President Gore struggled with education policy, too. This is where as an artist-type, he dove too much into the details and pet projects. For example, remember the brief flurry about the teacher in Lincoln, Nebraska, skipping regular chemistry and directly teaching organic chemistry to 10th graders? And there was one other district experimenting with this in suburban Phoenix, and that was it. Not even worth a mention in a presidential speech.

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Gov. Bush just would have been a better delegator. If his secretary of education had been enthusiastic about something like this, Bush would have said, Okay, let's take it step by step. If it's a small scale experiment, let's ramp it up to medium scale.

And on the issue of rich and poor districts, this is where Bush could play the "only Nixon can go to China" card. As a conservative, he could perhaps more effectively push through equalized financing of one type or another. Now, the vast majority agrees in the abstract that, yes, kids in both poor districts and rich districts should both receive an equally good education. It's always the specifics where things go asunder.

And, Oh Yes, the thing with Organic Chemistry. Last I read it's offered as an optional science pathway in about 20% of districts. Think it would have been more successful if it hadn't gone through this period of overhyping. The Lincoln, Nebraska teacher talks about how organic chem has plot and arc, whereas regular chemistry lies flat like a play with too many characters. And how since especially Organic II is the main de facto hurdle for pre-med in college, if you get good at this, you dream. Even if you eventually decide medicine's not for you, it helps you dream about other careers. But frankly this guy's so enthusiastic, almost any subject and almost any approach, he'd probably be pretty good at. I think there's even a social science term for a situation where, regardless of the content of the reform, if people feel on stage so to speak and that what they're doing is important, the reform tends to 'work.' Without the overhyping, I think this option would now be in 50% of districts.

Yes, President Gore got through his Education Reform package in 2003, but I think a lot of it was kludgeware and a grab bag overall. Think Gov. Bush probably would have done better on this count.

 

[Mr. Magi]

Yeah, honestly I might be selling Bush a bit short in that field overall; after all, it takes time to understand what effects would occur from his initiative, and he did pair it with some relief and pushes to get the worse off communities in a better spot. But to get back to the matter, i I think he'd have pushed for some national standards if he won the Oval Office since it seems to be one of his pet projects and dreams, comparable to Gore's on green energy. Speaking of that, it's kind of amusing to see that compared to voter feelings, the two actually got along pretty well by 2003. I think it's because both of them pressed for the reform that emphasized Organic Chemistry as a "hot" field to go into, though again Bush made it a bit wider by advocating the entire STEM field as well for his state; it being his last action in office.

Though it might have helped that both were invested; Gore because he wanted to make it a policy to make plastics more biodegradable and to set up greener or renewable jobs, and Bush because as mentioned the Petro and Bio industry is big down there.

 

[GeographyDude]

I think the 2000s would have been a time of education reform no matter who was president.

 

[GeographyDude]

Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine)

Might she be Gov. Bush's point person on 'faith based initiatives'? It's fine for an organization which knows the community to help the community, even tapping into some federal funding. But, and here's the standard criticisms, they can't show preference toward members over nonmembers, and there's a fine line between letting people know what time religious services occur and beating people over the head with proselytizing. Perhaps Senator Collins could figure out some ways to respectfully add spotchecking to baseline reporting, this being a trendy approach in circa 2000 business management [should have been].