I got the idea largely from Long National Nightmare. Also, Dark Bobby gonna Dark Bobby.
Dark Skies Over Goldsboro: A TLIAW
- Thread starter Joseph Weaver
- Start date
@Joseph Weaver so is this timeline dead now? I'd really like to see who comes after Kennedy (besides his VP of course).
No it's not dead I've just been busy with other projects though I'll try and update this TLIAW more frequently.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
This is a very interesting project - I have to commend the creative world building here.
By 1986, there is very, very little of the social and cultural issue polarization between the Democratic and Republican Parties we would recognize from our world. Nor is there anything like the national security polarization. To the extent there is, it runs in the opposite direction from OTL, with Democratic Administrations tending toward more uptight and harder line.
On the economy, taxes, and labor, the divides of the New Deal era are more persistent, with Democrats generally for more expansion of programs, and Jackson turning off Taft-Hartley while Ford turns it back on. Actually on programs, the parties aren't super far apart, labor is the single most divisive issue between the two.
In this world. It is three elected Democratic Presidencies in a row that are plagued by accountability/secrecy related scandals of their own making, with a heavy tie-in to National Security, not Republicans, and they never seem to learn.
The southerners really go nuts with their separate regional candidacies in this world, putting forward a splittist, or third party nominee from the region in 4 out 6 elections between 1964 and 1984! Talk about politicians who never learn. Their separatism never really seems to decisively shift what the electoral outcome. Neither major party locks down a southern strategy it seems, but the weakness of the third party candidacies from the region is not a great advertisement for the national impact of the regions' vote.
By 1986, there is very, very little of the social and cultural issue polarization between the Democratic and Republican Parties we would recognize from our world. Nor is there anything like the national security polarization. To the extent there is, it runs in the opposite direction from OTL, with Democratic Administrations tending toward more uptight and harder line.
On the economy, taxes, and labor, the divides of the New Deal era are more persistent, with Democrats generally for more expansion of programs, and Jackson turning off Taft-Hartley while Ford turns it back on. Actually on programs, the parties aren't super far apart, labor is the single most divisive issue between the two.
In this world. It is three elected Democratic Presidencies in a row that are plagued by accountability/secrecy related scandals of their own making, with a heavy tie-in to National Security, not Republicans, and they never seem to learn.
The southerners really go nuts with their separate regional candidacies in this world, putting forward a splittist, or third party nominee from the region in 4 out 6 elections between 1964 and 1984! Talk about politicians who never learn. Their separatism never really seems to decisively shift what the electoral outcome. Neither major party locks down a southern strategy it seems, but the weakness of the third party candidacies from the region is not a great advertisement for the national impact of the regions' vote.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
While part of this of likely necessary, because of anti-war backlash and to distance Casey from the disgraced President Jackson, but the pressure on the US backed post-invasion government to allow Castro back into Cuba without facing criminal charges and pre-trial detention was major "own goal" in domestic political terms, which kissed killed the enthusiasm of the Cuban American vote which had been staunchly loyalty to the Democrats for carrying out the military "liberation" of Cuba, and did not believe, admit, or care that the invasion was brought about under false pretenses. Many commentators speculate Casey would have won the 17 electoral votes of Florida, and possibly the 17 electoral votes of New Jersey if he still maintained the full enthusiasm and support of the naturalized Cuban-American community in those states. That alone would not have put him over the top. The electoral margin still would have been 277 Ford to 261 Casey.
It would have been a tough needle to thread though, Casey couldn't have sustained political heat or had good answers to offer if a flare up in insurgent activity in Cuba had killed any American troops there, so a near total troop withdrawal (I'm forgetting if we left Gitmo) was likely imperative. But supporting the Cuban Reorganized government in maintaining the exclusion, criminal charges and effective exile of Castro and other former regime officials could have allowed Casey and the Democrats to keep up dog-whistle campaign in Spanish to turn out the Cuban vote taking credit for Cuban liberation, even while putting Cuba behind them in English. As it was, by welcoming Castro back, anti-Castro Cubans in America were left entirely dispirited with all American politicians.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
There's some major blank spots of potential interest in this TL, including China. Was anybody the "only so-and-so could go to China"? Before he was busted for the scandal, I think Jackson, conqueror of Cuba would have the anticommunist cred. In OTL he embraced the decision as soon Nixon went that way. Boeing products were needed more anti-Soviet than anti-Chinese purposes. Maybe Scranton could have tried a move earlier, being a Republican. But he would have had difficulty after the Vietnam debacle. And the Chinese side being ready for rapprochement at any given time is important.
Also the Middle East and Israel. Interestingly, the USA and Scranton Administration is unencumbered by a war during the crisis leading up to the 6 Day War.
Interesting that the Nicaraguan revolution, and the Contra war happens like OTL. The Somoza dictatorship did plant the seeds of its own demise, and Marxist-Leninist techniques were a popular toolkit. Sandino's name was legendary in Nicaragua. And Sandinista FSLN existed as a small armed sect since the early 60s. No doubt this TL's invasion of Cuba is something they'd watch. Apparently they were inspired as they were intimidated by it. And actually, since Castro was allowed back home after four years exile by 1976 and welcomed as a hero not a criminal, why should they not be inspired?
A more interesting choice is the Ford Administration's choice to not do anything to prevent the Nicaraguan revolution. But really they have no other choice given the debacle that messing with Latin American Communism became with the false flag Cuba War.
The most interesting choice, is RFK's decision as President to still keep trying that covert action and working with exiles playbook that stung President Jackson, by supporting the Contra War. That is some real dark RFK, and channeling of Jay Edgar going on there.
Also the Middle East and Israel. Interestingly, the USA and Scranton Administration is unencumbered by a war during the crisis leading up to the 6 Day War.
Interesting that the Nicaraguan revolution, and the Contra war happens like OTL. The Somoza dictatorship did plant the seeds of its own demise, and Marxist-Leninist techniques were a popular toolkit. Sandino's name was legendary in Nicaragua. And Sandinista FSLN existed as a small armed sect since the early 60s. No doubt this TL's invasion of Cuba is something they'd watch. Apparently they were inspired as they were intimidated by it. And actually, since Castro was allowed back home after four years exile by 1976 and welcomed as a hero not a criminal, why should they not be inspired?
A more interesting choice is the Ford Administration's choice to not do anything to prevent the Nicaraguan revolution. But really they have no other choice given the debacle that messing with Latin American Communism became with the false flag Cuba War.
The most interesting choice, is RFK's decision as President to still keep trying that covert action and working with exiles playbook that stung President Jackson, by supporting the Contra War. That is some real dark RFK, and channeling of Jay Edgar going on there.
I'm very glad you've enjoyed it so far! Also a little note no President since Eisenhower has served two full terms. Either being defeated for reelection or falling to some scandal that forced them to resign. Also the Republicans are going to have their very own military adventure soon...
True though Casey most likely just wanted to put the whole scandal behind both himself and the country.
To be fair so far every President has mostly focused on other things such as Ford trying to deal with inflation and the Iran Hostage Crisis to really care about or focus on China. Also While Scoop could have he was too busy basking in his own glory and then subsequently getting caught with his pants down with the whole Northwoods scandal.
I also have plans for Israel later on. Also while RFK is usually seen as the liberal darling the man had his rougher darker edges and could be just as ruthless as LBJ and Nixon.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
True - while Dems have been felled by scandal in their first or second terms, Kennedy, Jackson, then Kennedy, Republicans have been felled by the foreign policy and street crime/riots "wimp factor" and inflation - Scranton, Ford.
On China, it would not have been domestically, nor diplomatically inert while the US dithered without making any overtures. It would either find its way out of Cultural Revolution and isolation and towards reform and opening to the non-US parts of the world and world economy, or get further stuck in the Cultural Revolution and isolation rut in the years from 1969-1986.
Since there was no mention of the Soviets going ham and medieval and having either a conventional nor a WMD war against Maoist China in 1969 or later, in the absence of the US-PRC rapprochement, we'll have to assume *that* did not happen, and that even if Jackson never made time for rapprochement, if the Soviets ever put out feelers to the Americans about "what would you do if we did *something* about Mao" which we think they did in OTL between '69 and '73, his Administration sent back the message of "we're not going to guarantee your back for a world war three, punk!", leaving Moscow deterred.
Contrary to what some might think, I do not think the PRC actually needs rapprochement with USA and diplomatic relations with it or MFN status to have free market economic reforms and benefit from them, to a significant extent. Other market economies market economies in Europe, Japan, and eventually the Pacific Rim would trade with and invest in them if the PRC opens themselves up to it. And land and enterprise reform means China stops kicking its own economy in the nuts, which means it has room for substantial growth and alleviation of poverty. But no diplomatic ties with America and MFN status does set a limit to growth, and does mean it cannot become the favored outsourcing platform for Walmart, so it would be a handicap compared to OTL eventually. The US ignoring the PRC consistently through 1986 creates a possibility, although it does not guarantee, that pragmatic Chinese leaders would walk back from the Sino-Soviet split and open up to a series of summits and diplomatic bargains with the Soviets to relax tensions, since there is "no joy" with the other, American, superpower.
But I said, another alternative might be China just staying in Cultural Revolution crazy town. Theoretically a middle path might be going back to boring old style Communist planning in economics rather than Deng's bolder reforms.
Good to see you'll get to that.
Overall, it is remarkable how supine the USSR was in reaction to the American invasion and occupation of Cuba in 1970-72, and the further occupation until 76.
In the binary choice of things, they decided anything they could try to affect things on the ground would cause WWIII, and they did not want that. But they don't seem to have tried to inflict much punishment or price tag on the USA for this prestige hit or damage to their own deterrence posture and their own reputation as a reliable protector.
Sure, the Soviets had earned some bragging rights in the second half of the 1960s - the Communist side won in Vietnam, though it would be tricky whether to interpret that as more a victory for the USSR or China. Both would try to claim victory and work with the winner. And the USSR earned bragging rights by being the first to put a man on the moon! [Hey, does that make the Jackson Administration and subsequent administrations "space mad", like in "For All Mankind"?) And since I didn't hear anything about Czechoslovakia, I assume they snuffed the Prague Spring and showed they are the uncontested master of their East-Central European house. But presumably the Six Day War was an embarrassment for their Arab clients wielding their weapons.
So, it is remarkable the invasion of Cuba did not result in some other crisis, in Berlin [although Berlin access was on the verge of resolution that was signed off by 1971 in OTL]. President Jackson's invasion of Cuba in 1970 is far more risky from a balance of power/balance of terror perspective than an invasion of Cuba during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis would have been, because by 1970, the USSR had near nuclear warhead and nuclear warhead intercontinental delivery system parity with the United States, plus the Soviets by 1970 had much more conventional long-distance naval and airborne power projection than they had in 1962.
Even if avoiding big unit, big platform direct intervention in Cuba that could easily escalate to WW3 and would get overpowered by superior numbers of US forces, I wouldn't be surprised by Soviet use small subs and small watercraft and SOF teams/SPETSNAZ for gun-running and provividing technical supporting during the war of defense of the Castro regime as a lower-level intervention short of WW3-causing. Because any Jackson Administration threat to go Massive Retaliation in response vs. the Soviet/East Bloc could be met exactly in kind against the US & West European homelands.
It also appears the Soviets did not start a real-time retaliatory crisis in Berlin (maybe not wanting to spoil budding detente with deep-pocketed European nations), Turkey, nor in the Middle East - Israel could have been seen as a tempting, symmetrical, tit-for-tat target circa 1970, with Soviet expeditionary forces intervening to support a combined Arab attack, nor any other kind of trouble-making like encouraging North Korea to start a second Korean War - which the North Koreans, perhaps emboldened/inspired/envious of North Vietnam/VC victory, might be more than willing to do. Yet another possible retaliation, President Allende of Chile invites in Soviet armed forces and they arrive before there is a chance for a coup against him? But I'll presume this didn't happen.
At a minimum, the USSR and its allies would make much propaganda outrage about the invasion of sovereign Cuba, and the nonaligned and Third World countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Indeed, even NATO allies and American democratic allies would condemn the US move as reckless and ethically unsound. Although the West Europeans and Canadians would be evenhanded and take note of Castro regime human rights abuses and atrocities exposed by the invasion. Only hardcore anticommunist regimes, mostly dictatorships, applauding the US move, and perhaps not *all* of them. The other minimum Soviet reaction would be to step up its baseline military spending yet again, to prevent it and its long-distance allies from get further bullied in the future.
By the end of the 70s, there is again another leftist regime in power in the Americas, Nicaragua, and possibly two, since you mentioned Castro is welcomed back in Cuba as a hero - you didn't specify if he would take power again, and if so if it would be by election or if he would have perpetual or dictatorial power, or an illiberal, elective, possibly questionable democracy like what Danny Ortega has led over the last dozen years in Nicaragua. The USSR would still probably would be in a vengeful mood though, and may well park missiles in both those countries, and Grenada if it goes Marxist, just to prove it can and won't back down this time. The strategic rationale is less, because they already have thousands of systems ranging the USA from home and undersea, but that also disincentivizes the Americans making a crisis about it again. But by 1979-1980, the USSR certainly would have complete nuclear parity with the USA so could not make demands credibly the same way JFK could without committing suicide.
To be fair they could have also seen the huge iceberg the US was running towards at full speed and simply got out of the way to let Scoop shoot himself and the country in the foot. But yeah they'll probably not let that happen again and as for space well you'll find out more in the next update.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Yes, they could have. Although from what I have tended to see from internal Communist archives and correspondence revealed over time is remarkably little pure faith in the efficacy of pure people's war over capitalist material superiority ----except for public propaganda purposes or when the Communist author needs to explain away a problem they don't want to confront. The Communist countries' record of picking which fights will be easier and which harder, and when and where adversary will gave way, and cases where internal uprisings will affect the enemy critically, is not all that great.
Very cool. Looking forward to hear more about space.
I hope I am not being too much of a p.i.t.a. with playing "texas sharpshooter" or "writer's assistant" on all sorts of particulars.
The topics and overall era this explores are fascinating, the writing is very accessible and moves things along at a brisk, rather than tedious pace, keeping the reader fully engaged, and obviously it has fired up my imagination! Well done!
Your cool man you've actually helped to give me some ideas for future updates.
41. Jimmy Carter(D-GA)
41. Jimmy Carter(D-GA)
Sep. 24, 1986-Jan. 20, 1989
Sep. 24, 1986-Jan. 20, 1989
James Earl Carter Jr. was born in humble beginnings, his father James Earl Carter Sr. was a successful businessman during Carter's infancy, his family moved several times, settling on a dirt road in nearby Archery, which was almost entirely populated by impoverished African American families.
Although his father was a staunch segregationist, he allowed Jimmy to befriend the black farmhands' children.
Carter’s political career began as a State Senator, in 1962 Carter announced his campaign for an open Georgia State Senate seat fifteen days before the election. While early counting of the ballots showed Carter trailing his opponent Homer Moore, this was later proven to be the result of fraudulent voting. The fraud was found to have been orchestrated by Joe Hurst, the chairman of the Democratic Party in Quitman County. Following this, another election was held, in which Carter won against Moore as the sole Democratic candidate, with a vote margin of 3,013 to 2,182.
Following his victory Carter would give speeches against literacy tests and against an amendment to the Georgia Constitution which he felt implied a compulsion to practice religion.
In early 1966 Carter announced his intention to run for the Governorship of Georgia. In the primary, he ran against liberal former governor Ellis Arnall and conservative segregationist Lester Maddox. Despite early polling showing him in third place, Carter fought tooth and nail to narrowly edge out Maddox going into the runoff against Arnall{1}.
Carter would manage to win the runoff and then would be swept into office that November following the fall of South Vietnam under President Scranton.
Carter merged about 300 state agencies into 22, although it’s disputed whether this actually saved the state money or not. Carter's time as Governor came to an end in 1971 though he wasn’t out of office for long.
On January 21, 1971, the infamous Senator Richard Russell passed away. Carter seeing an opportunity approached the new Governor Carl Sanders asking to be appointed the interim Senator. Sanders agreed and appointed Carter to the vacant seat until a special election could be held Carter quickly announced his intentions to run in the special election.
Despite it going to a runoff Carter would narrowly defeat state Congressman Sam Nunn in the primary. He would then go on to defeat his opponent Congressman Fletcher Thompson by a comfortable margin{2}.
In the Senate, Carter would rack up a moderate to liberal voting record though he would vote conservative on some occasions. Though his posturing for the Vice Presidental slot would fail Carter gave a well-received speech at the 1976 DNC which would raise his profile somewhat. Following the defeat of President Casey at the hands of Ford in the general election Carter would easily win reelection in 1978 despite a fierce primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Zell Miller.
Carter would announce his campaign for the 1980 Democratic nomination however he would drop out and endorse Kennedy after coming in 4th in New Hampshire. His loyalty was rewarded when Kennedy tapped Carter to be his running mate. The two would go on to defeat President Ford in the general election and then go on to be reelected in 1984 over former Vice President George Bush.
Carter planned to ride Kennedy’s coattails into the White House in 1988 though Carter would enter the White House far sooner than he expected.
Under a dark gloomy cloud of scandal, Carter was sworn in as the nation's forty-first President. With many Americans wondering what Carter knew or how involved he was in the scandal Carter gave a very bland yet hopeful speech about moving forward, healing, and praising the Constitution. While it wasn’t anything noteworthy it did help bump Carter’s approval numbers up to 45%.
The first order of business was to appoint a new Vice President. However, this was easy as Carter tapped former Congressman, Governor, and current California Senator Jerry Brown. Brown was easily confirmed.
Senator Brown on Meet The Press two weeks before his nomination for Vice President.
Carter got to work crafting a bi-partisan bill that overhauled the FBI and gave greater Congressional authority over the agency, the bill breezed through Congress and was signed into law soon after. Of course, as much as Carter wanted to he knew he couldn’t ignore the elephant in the room for too long.
Carter was faced with a tough decision on whether or not to pardon his predecessor. After hours upon hours of meeting with both close advisors and party leaders, Carter came to a decision. On October 14th, Cater gave an official address from the Oval Office in which he announced that he was officially pardoning Robert F. Kennedy for any crimes he may have committed while President.
President Carter getting ready for his televised address.
The backlash was immediate with Carter’s approval ratings plummeting and the Republicans decrying quid pro quo.
With his approval ratings sitting somewhere between 35-28% Carter would turn towards foreign policy to bolster them. Specifically, Carter would look toward the Far East.
Hua Guofeng Mao Zendon’s handpicked successor had tried to keep everything stable. After assuming power in 1976 he quickly ousted the Gang of Four from political power with the help of Marshall Ye Jianying and Li Xiannan.
Following the ousting of the gang Hua released People punished after the 1976 Tiananmen incident and rehabilitated more than 4,600 veteran candres who had been purged during the Cultural Revolution including Deng Xiaoping.
In February of 1977, the central leadership under Hua released a new slogan: "We will resolutely uphold whatever policy decisions Chairman Mao made, and unswervingly follow whatever instructions Chairman Mao gave". Satirically referred to as the "Two Whatevers", this slogan was used to criticize Hua due to the perception that he obeyed Mao's orders too blindly.
Hua was also concerned at the state of China's economy, stating that he feared it was on the brink of collapse. Hua worked with Li Xiannian to boost the economy, endorsing a plan to accelerate economic growth by boosting enterprises' budgets and importing massive amounts of foreign technology. He introduced an ambitious ten-year economic plan that sought to create a Soviet-style economy by increasing investments in heavy industry and energy, mechanizing agriculture, and using imported technology to build new manufacturing plants. Though the idea of importing technology was not new, Hua's approach was differentiated by its scale, with planned imports of $80 billion by the summer of 1978. His proposal to purchase foreign equipment, services, and infrastructure through massive loans, which were viewed as reckless and impractical, and later derided as "the Western-Led Leap Forward.”
All of this led up to the 3rd Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee where Hua and Deng would clash for power. Hua with few connections in both the party and the military would voluntarily step down as Chairman and would back Vice-Chairman Ye Jianying one of the top military marshalls who helped lead the ousting of the Gang of Four. Jianying would barely survive agreeing to appoint Deng supporter Hu Yaobang as Vice-Chariman.
Chairman Jianying
Jianying would continue some of Hua’s policies including the Five Year Plan light industry and consumer goods he also implemented some of Deng’s ideas and reforms such as the household-responsibility system, which divided the land of the People's communes into private plots. Jianying would also begin to open up China to the rest of the world.
In 1982 Jianying would step down allowing Yaobang to take over.
Yoabang immediately got to work implementing even more reforms such as allowing private businesses to operate and helping to abolish the position of party Chairman to distance the country from Moaism with the Chairman’s functions going to the post of General Secretary. Yoabang also opened China up even more to the world though the United States remained somewhat cold. However, that would change with the elevation of Jimmy Carter in 1986.
In mid-October, Carter would conduct secret talks with Secretary Yaobang and would announce his intentions to visit China. On October 28th, Carter would become the first President to visit China with Yabang visiting the United States in December becoming the first Chinese official since the communist takeover. Though Carter would receive a modest bump in approval hawks in both parties decried the decision.
The Republicans would use this along with the pardoning of Kennedy to finally take both chambers of Congress.
Carter’s last few years in office weren’t all that eventful aside from one moment.
Ever since the Soviet moon landing in 1969 America had been fuming. With Scoop Jackson proclaimed that the United States would work tooth and nail to build a moon colony and perhaps land a man on its sister planet Mars. The first half quickly became a joke but the second half…now that had some promise.
So with every President from Scoop onwards granting huge budget after huge budget to NASA they began to improve and experiment, successfully landing a man on the moon in 1975 though that was nothing compared to their true goal. All of the funding and patience paid off in the spring of 1987 as Americans celebrated while Dick Scobee became the first man to step foot on Mars. Though Carter’s approval ratings shot up it wasn’t enough to save him from defeat.
In modern times Carter is looked at as a well-regarded President who did what he believed was the right thing even if it hurt him politically. Many historians praise his leadership which helped lead the country through a rough time following Kennedy’s fall from grace as well as his rapprochement with China.
Authors Notes
1. I didn't quite know how Jimmy could have won the nomination so I kept it vague.
2. Same thing as the first
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