Could Yamamoto have pulled off an even more devastating PH attack?

[steel_captain]

My scenario is that he use 4 carriers of the KB to only hit all the airfields around Oahu on the morning of Dec. 7th, with the intention of destroying as many aircraft as possible on the ground. Then bring the other pair of the KB plus NAGATO, MUTSU and the 4 KONGOs to just south of PH that evening and begin lobbing shells onto Battleship Row and everything else in Pearl.

With all USN and USAAC planes destroyed on the ground (or a vast majority of them) only the airwings on the two carriers can stand in the way if the IJN shelling every ship in PH until it sinks alongside or blows up!

In this scenario what does ENTERPRISE and LEXINGTON do? It would be 2 on 1 as far as carriers go until LEXINGTON made it from Midway and expect the IJN pilots to manhandle ENTERPRISE pretty severely on the 8th and likely sink her.

Or do our two carriers realize they are dead if they try to fight their way into PH and decline to even try? Have plenty of subs between Hawaíi and the West Coast in case they do try to escape the trap.

Now that would have been the utter destruction of the US Pacific fleet and how many years before there would be any chance the USN to be able to get any licks back at the IJN?

 

[steel_captain]

Of course if the carriers are in port, the first wave reports that and a second strike immediately takes off to catch those carriers before they exit the channel.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Then bring the other pair of the KB plus NAGATO, MUTSU and the 4 KONGOs to just south of PH that evening and begin lobbing shells onto Battleship Row and everything else in Pearl.

In what world would this be possible?

 

[steel_captain]

Airpower on Oahu seriously degraded and little chance all of battleship row being be able to get underway so quickly but if half did manage to put to sea they would not be prepared to fight and I am sure confusion reigns forming a battleline. The prepared IJN BBs muss them up pretty damned good.

That was the scenario Nimitz was so happy didn't happen with all the old BBs sunk in deep water and not salvageable.

 

[steel_captain]

Yes. I know with more than double the ships in the operation approaching Hawaii in two groups means more than double the chance they might be detected before the morning of the 7th which can be discussed as part of this thread

 

[Mike D]

If the carriers were in port wouldn't their air wings be sitting on one of the airfields when the Japanese arrive? Carriers don't generally keep their air wings onboard in port since they can't launch or recover planes while static so the pilots can't train.

Secondly, did the Japanese have enough fuel for that many ships to close to within gun range?

Thirdly, wouldn't the battleships have fired up their boilers and put to sea immediately after the air attacks on the island rather than sitting meekly in port waiting to see what happened, meaning the entire Pacific Fleet is at sea and almost certainly at battle stations when the far smaller Japanese force arrives?

 

[steel_captain]

You are correct on the airwings from the carriers not being onboard but would they be able to be armed if parked on Ford Island? If they could be that will take time.

Regarding Battleship Row, I doubt every BB makes it out of the channel so quickly but some would be able to however read what I wrote in post #4. They would not be prepared at all to fight.

Fuel for the IJN attack forces is the wildcard. I could well imagine they had the fuel available for such a big operation however they may not have had enough tankers to cover six carriers and six BB's?

 

[steel_captain]

One more thing ..add to the plan for a 2nd wave to sink a BB in the channel trying to escape because you know they will try just as the NEVADA did

 

[Sekhmet_D]

One more thing ..add to the plan for a 2nd wave to sink a BB in the channel trying to escape because you know they will try just as the NEVADA did

It is actually impossible to block the channel with a sunken BB. Not even if the ship sinks broadside along the middle of it. The channel is simply too wide.

 

[steel_captain]

It is actually impossible to block the channel with a sunken BB. Not even if the ship sinks broadside along the middle of it. The channel is simply too wide.

Hit all the BBs trying to escape in a 2nd wave. No maneuvering in PH to avoid dive bombs

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Hit all the BBs trying to escape in a 2nd wave. No maneuvering in PH to avoid dive bombs

Dive bombs can't sink BBs.

 

[Garrison]

I cannot for second believe this is being posted as a serious scenario.

 

[YYJ]

Hit all the BBs trying to escape in a 2nd wave. No maneuvering in PH to avoid dive bombs

The Japanese knew that the 250 kg bombs from a Val would not penetrate the deck armour of the American BBs. That is why they came up with the 800kg Type 99 No 80 Mk 5 Armour Piercing Bomb which was dropped from 10,000 feet by B5N Kates acting as level bombers. This was the bomb that sank Arizona. It was essentially a 16" naval shell turned into a bomb. If Kates were dropping those on the second wave it would be into the teeth of the fully alerted AAA of the fleet and the bases. I think that would throw off their aim. Plus the smoke from burning airfields would screen the harbour, depending on the wind direction.

 

[muskeg13]

My scenario is that he use 4 carriers of the KB to only hit all the airfields around Oahu on the morning of Dec. 7th, with the intention of destroying as many aircraft as possible on the ground. Then bring the other pair of the KB plus NAGATO, MUTSU and the 4 KONGOs to just south of PH that evening and begin lobbing shells onto Battleship Row and everything else in Pearl.

With all USN and USAAC planes destroyed on the ground (or a vast majority of them) only the airwings on the two carriers can stand in the way if the IJN shelling every ship in PH until it sinks alongside or blows up!

In this scenario what does ENTERPRISE and LEXINGTON do? It would be 2 on 1 as far as carriers go until LEXINGTON made it from Midway and expect the IJN pilots to manhandle ENTERPRISE pretty severely on the 8th and likely sink her.

Or do our two carriers realize they are dead if they try to fight their way into PH and decline to even try? Have plenty of subs between Hawaíi and the West Coast in case they do try to escape the trap.

Now that would have been the utter destruction of the US Pacific fleet and how many years before there would be any chance the USN to be able to get any licks back at the IJN?

Oh boy! It would be a good day to be in the Coast Artillery! What great big fat juicy targets the Japanese BBs will be for the heavy Coast Artillery and USN Battle Fleet who remain untouched after your first wave. Remaining in port, the USN BBs could provide even more accurate and effective long range fire, ala Canopus at Port Stanley. The US BBs would be stable stationary firing platforms. Another plus for the US is they would have ready access to ammo resupply. Even if airfields were the prime targets of the initial attack, plenty of aircraft would remain to provide for aerial spotting.

Other than lack of sufficient fuel for the IJN to be able to pull this off, is the impossibility of the Japanese fleet to carry enough, and enough of the right types, of ammunition to effectively conduct both (AP) ship killing, and HC HE shore bombardment. Magazine capacity is a very limiting factor. Slow moving ammo resupply vessels aren't really an option since they can't keep up with the rest of the IJN fleet, require a considerable amount of fuel themselves, and make very easy targets for surviving aircraft and all of the largely untouched USN fleet lighter than the BBs.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

The Japanese knew that the 250 kg bombs from a Val would not penetrate the deck armour of the American BBs.

You have to wonder why Shoichi Ogawa decided to rally all his men and attack Nevada if they knew their ordnance could not realistically sink her. Unfortunately he died so nobody was able to ask him...

 

[Garrison]

You have to wonder why Shoichi Ogawa decided to rally all his men and attack Nevada if they knew their ordnance could not realistically sink her. Unfortunately he died so nobody was able to ask him...

Well when you look at the war as whole cool logical thinking was not the strongpoint of the Japanese military and he may have believed that bomb+plane might get the job done.

 

[CV12Hornet]

Okay, let me explain why trying to a drive-by shelling is a bad idea. And it has nothing to do with planes or the ships in Pearl Harbor.

Let me go over the coastal defenses of southern Oahu:

Fort Barrette: 2 16" guns, casemated

Fort Weaver: 2 16", 4 155mm

Fort Kamehameha: 8 12" mortars, 4 12" guns, 4 155mm, 2 6", 6 3"

Brown's Camp: 4 8"

Barber's Point: 4 155mm

Fort Ruger: 12 12" mortars,

Fort DeRussy: 2 14", 2 6"

To summarize: that's 4 16" guns, 2 14" guns, 4 12" guns, and 20 12" mortars that the Japanese have to deal with if they want to shell Pearl Harbor with battleships. This is not a recipe for success. Allow me to explain why.

A long-held truism of naval warfare is that "a ship's a fool to fight a fort". The reason for this is that a fort is more durable, more accurate, and can carry heavier guns than a ship. It's more durable because it's actually damned hard to destroy dug-in land guns from the sea - they're small targets that demand direct hits and are usually protected by rock or concrete. It's more accurate because the guns don't have to compensate for the pitching of the ship and can spend the years fortified in place to build up a grid precise enough to tell them exactly how to aim their guns to put a shell in any grid square. Heavier guns are, of course, not relevant in this particular scenario.

The result is that the Japanese are going to take serious losses trying to suppress the forts. And if they try to shell Pearl Harbor without suppressing the forts, it's basically free target practice. Oahu was very well defended against enemy battleships, as you can see.

And while the ground response to Pearl Harbor was disorganized in many ways, we know Fort Kamehameha was manned during the attack, because the fort's anti-aircraft guns fired upon Japanese planes. These forts will be manned in very short order.

 

[steel_captain]

The result is that the Japanese are going to take serious losses trying to suppress the forts. And if they try to shell Pearl Harbor without suppressing the forts, it's basically free target practice. Oahu was very well defended against enemy battleships, as you can see.

No way as it ends up 4 16" on Oahu vs. 16 16" offshore and 2 14" on Oahu vs. 32 14" offshore plus aircraft to divebomb these coastal batteries. Also, which guns can be elevated the highest and have the highest sustained rates of fire? I believe the IJN BBs win on this one as well so should be able to outrange any shore battery counterfire. Regarding any USN BBs in PH trying to lob shells at the Japanese, most all can only use their forward turrets and with many they will have ships directly ahead of them they need to fire over. Anyway, who will be spotting because their gun directors won't be able to be used?

 

[Hayatgheibi]

I was in a Discord polsim where we had a worse Pearl Harbor where the Japanese destroyed the crucial fuel reserves. If that happened irl it would be a huge setback for the US and would buy Japan crucial time to beat a larger enemy. I don't know if that would've required a lot more planes or ships to carry out.

Alternatively, they could've taken a page from Michael Bay and started attacking civilians.

 

[steel_captain]

don't know if that would've required a lot more planes or ships to carry out.

Not at all...Nimitz said that would have been extremely easy to have accomplished by any of the Japanese attack aircraft. He also said if the repair facilities were hit that would have meant none of the ships damaged in the strike could have been repaired with needing to tow them to the west Coast.