I half-take these points.
Renown was escorted by 9 destroyers IOTL which didn't get into range because of the bad weather. I did start a thread where I suggested that Repulse was sent out with Renown and the consensus was that it wouldn't have made much difference because both sides were lucky to score the hits that they did because of the bad weather.
Re the 15" shell that hit Renown and didn't explode. I can match that with the 11" shell that hit Renown and didn't explode and raise you the 15" shells that hit Prince of Wales and didn't explode in her action with Bismarck.
However, they'd send Bismarck and Tirpitz out on their own in the autumn of 1940 if Schanhorst and Gneisenau weren't available to sail with them.
Interesting. In the Renown vs. Scharnhorst, and Gneisenau battle I think it was Scharnhorst that suffered a failure in her radar, and in fire control. This added to the German desire to disengage. In these what if's we always assume fights to the finish. Duds, or pass throughs are common. The 15" shells of Renown had a good chance of penetrating the armored citadel of the German Ships, and at that range it would the more dangerous plunging fire. The 11" German guns had very flat trajectories, giving them a good chance of penetrating Renown's main belt, or any of it's armor. Ether side could've done major damage to the other, but the Germans have the advantage of 18 guns, vs. 6.
You can debate the German Policy of avoiding battle, if it risked major damage, but the Germans have to deal with having a small number of ships, and bases to go to. However In the heat of battle it's easy to imagine pressing an advantage. The Germans might have sunk Renown, which would have had a shocking effect on the British. It would hurt moral, and the RN doesn't have as many effective capital units as people are thinking. If the Bismarck had sunk the Prince of Wales the shock of losing the Hood would be magnified. PW was the best protected ship in the RN, the fact it really wasn't battle worthy would be obscured by events.
Effectively only the Rodney, and Nelson could take on Bismarck, or Tirpitz on equal terms, the 14" shells were just too light. It was Rodney that destroyed Bismarck. The shortage of RN Battleships that could handle Tirpitz prompted Admiral King to send 2 Fast Battleships to join the Home Fleet. The timidity of the RN in Northern Waters in mid 1942 so disgusted King that he withdrew them, and sent them to the South Pacific, where they might do more good.
So I don't see a German Battlefleet in the Atlantic, and the chances of a Little Jutland in Northern Waters is small. Nether the Germans, or RN want to come in range of enemy aircraft, and the British advantage in FC Radar later in the war gives them too big an advantage in an Arctic Night action for the Germans to risk it. It was just foolish for the Germans to send the Scharnhorst stumbling out into an Arctic Night, in high seas, groping to find a convoy. Not their best thought out operation of the war.