Could Japan really keep the Liaodong peninsula?

[GauchoBadger]

As seen after the sino-japanese war of 1895, japan's victory had still not impressed the western powers, who meddled in the post-war treaty and forced the empire to cede claims to the Liaodong peninsula in china.

So, the question is: could Japan keep the peninsula without going full ASB? How could it appease the western powers and get them to comply? Would this butterfly away japan's militaristic behavior, as seen in the TL below?
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=326312

 

[Fredrick II Barbarossa]

prevent port arthur massacre and japanese acts of atrocity seen by western observers and journalists and probably.