Consequences for Europe of Napoleon accepting the Frankfurt Memorandum?
- Thread starter Wendell
- Start date
Garetor
Gone Fishin'
Honestly, I think the Belgium and Rheinland cessions are always underdiscussed when it comes to the Frankfurt Memorandum. That's such a colossal boon to French industry that you can almost guarantee Napoleon's reputation is even more glorious, even though he ended in defeat. Not only will France have a much easier time industrializing, it will have superior seaports, and their chief 19th century rival will no longer have the capacity to even rise to the level of regionally dominant.
But looking further on, what could this mean for Franco-Russian relations? France will be even richer than it was OTL, but I don't think they'd be so keen on investing in Russia. Perhaps French capital will go towards economically boosting German allies, to expand their influence peacefully into Germany?
But looking further on, what could this mean for Franco-Russian relations? France will be even richer than it was OTL, but I don't think they'd be so keen on investing in Russia. Perhaps French capital will go towards economically boosting German allies, to expand their influence peacefully into Germany?
I wonder if this sees more German migration abroad and/or what this could mean for the French colonial empire.
Garetor
Gone Fishin'
Increased German emigration from the French adjacent areas goes largely to Texas, including two young rabble rousers named Marx and Engels. They rouse a lot of passionate anti-slavery sentiment among the German community in Texas, and Union thrusts into the lone star state find more local support?
Could be. Are Marx and Engels from the Rhineland? Regardless, they alternatively could end up in Russia...Increased German emigration from the French adjacent areas goes largely to Texas, including two young rabble rousers named Marx and Engels. They rouse a lot of passionate anti-slavery sentiment among the German community in Texas, and Union thrusts into the lone star state find more local support?
Garetor
Gone Fishin'
Marx is from Trier, at the least. There was another german communist, August Willich, who in OTL made the journey over and actually commanded a unit for the Union.
If you are asking why he became an Anglophile the answer is I have no idea.
If you are asking what where the symptoms, you can start with the fashions he favored and proceed with a reputation he had since he was a Cesarevich, his pro-British policy (one of the first acts of his reign was to reinstate the leading Russian Anglophile, Vorontsov, as an ambassador to Britain and order to sign the treaty on the British terms), his desperate attempts to please the British public during the state visit.
That would be an interesting case in a "Napoleon accepts the Frankfurt Proposals" scenario. It did state that he would give up any claims or influence outside of those territories, which means that Spain & the Netherlands may end up as per OTL. (Moreso fait accompli for Spain, probably could be an excuse for the Netherlands to retain the "Sovereign Principality" title they had up until it's formal annexation of Belgium along with a formal royal "King of the Netherlands" title)
It also means that Italy in general may end up going into its post-CoV state to an extent. Nappy I still being Emperor means his Second Wife doesn't become Duchess of Parma as compensation, meaning the Parmese Bourbons are restored as originally intended, and Tuscany annexes Lucca. Also, VE1 is restored to Piedmont & Nice, but Savoy remains French as part of the Franfurt Memorandum. It does make me wonder what would become of the other lands in question. I know Modena and the Papacy will be restored, that much is clear, and Venice is most likely going to remain Austrian along with Milan (Lombardy-Venetia still being formed within the Austrian Empire.) But I wonder if Genoa will be restored, as was attempted (and ultimately failed) IOTL. Murat's Naples could still survive, especially if the French or surprisingly, the British could use it as a counterweight against French and/or Austrian influence in the region, despite Britain being in a less powerful position as they were IOTL.
The same can be said for Germany and Poland. Even if France keeps the lands on the left bank of the Rhine, there was still a number of duchies and principalities beyond this that were very much Napoleonic client states. While some were close enough that they could be annexed by countries such as Bavaria, Baden or Saxony, assuming that Prussia gets shafted due to distrust among all sides involved, what would be the fates of some of these states, do they end up being given to formerly mediatized states, annexed to neighboring states? The same could be said for Poland, could it too end up being partitioned as were before the Napoleonic Wars?
Why for the Netherlands? Basically what happened there was that the prince of Orange landed on the Continent and started moving south, gathering support. Under the understanding from BRITAIN (no one else) that THEY wouldn't stop him, and that they would essentially stand surety for his "gains".
Again. Why? If Napoléon is still emperor, chances are good he's still king of Italy as well. If he isn't, that might be as much of a difference as a Habsburg archduke replacing Eugène de Beauharnais as viceroy. Or it could even be that they AGREE that Eugène is to succeed there (the Allies generally held the Beauharnais in higher regard than they did the Bonapartes. And Eugène got ROYALLY screwed at Vienna OTL).
The Papacy LIKELY wouldn't be restored (least in the same form as following Vienna OTL). The Spanish rep, the marquis de Labrador, was the ONLY one who wanted that. Even Metternich was leery of it, but the problem came up with what to do with those lands if the pope WASN'T restored. If they're still part of your Napoléonic kingdom of Italy, it becomes a dead letter. Other option is if the Habsburgs get Italy and the legazioni are carved off as a rump state for Eugène (as was discussed OTL), but since Spain ISN'T likely to be a participant (at Frankfurt) and also Talleyrand (who was one of the supporters of Murat's kingdom of Naples to avoid either the Bourbons or the Habsburgs getting the upperhand in Italy) is absent, while Napoléon is LESS likely to throw Eugène to the wolves than what Alexander I did OTL, so I could see Metternich making his OTL offer to Eugène. (Via Eugène's father-in-law he made intimations of leaving Eugène in place or being willing to cede territories in the Marche if Eugène ditched Napoléon in 1812 already. Eugène refused the offer and when Vienna rolled around, while he was regarded sympathetically, no one lost much sleep screwing Eugène over. And Eugène was too much of a damned gentleman to say anything about it)
The Frankfurt Memorandum would confirm Napoleon gains Belgium. Granted yes, Britain would pull a stunt like this because it would be in their best interests that the Low Countries as a whole is either in British influence or, failing that, not in French control or influence. But yes, if the Accords were agreed to, the Prince Orange would basically be confirmed to the original Dutch Republic territories.
Again, the Frankfurt Memorandum, even if Napoleon is still Emperor, by agreeing to that, he loses both the territories and most (if not all) the influence in Italy, which includes termination of the personal union between France and Italy. On the subject on the Kingship of Italy being retained however, I kinda see your argument, and there is just as much a chance that they keep the KoI largely intact, to give to either Beauharnais or to a Habsburg archduke, (Either Ferdinand III, if they choose to give Wurzburg back to Bavaria, or Francis, of the Este branch, whose lands were part of the Kingdom of Italy. Honestly, I dunno, but then again, it largely depends on what the coalition members want out of that.
I didn't know the only person interested in restoring the Papal States was basically a Spaniard who may or may not be involved at Frankfurt. That being said, while most of those lands would indeed be a dead letter if we keep the KoI, Lazio wasn't, as it was administered directly by France, which wouldn't be the case anymore in a successful Frankfurt Memorandum. If the Papacy isn't restored, perhaps we might see the "Kingdom of Rome" be an actual title with land rather than just the title for Napoleon's son and heir here. If the Habsburgs get Italy, I can see Eugene getting that as a consolation prize. There's also the possibility of Tuscany being carved away from these lands, to be either restored to Ferdinand III (if the Wurzburg thing still happens as per OTL) or even to the Parmese Bourbons (though, IMHO, if Spain isn't likely to be a participant, I kinda don't see that happening.) I still stand with my intentions with French Piedmont and Genoa though, it'll all either revert back to the Sardinian King, or all but Liguria, the latter going to a restored Genoese Republic.
Technically no, and I only say technically as the Prince of Orange ruled that area until the HRE was dissolved. At the time of the memorandum being offered to Napoleon, Fulda was under the rule of the Grand Duchy of Frankfurt (it would pass into the hands of the Electorate of Hesse-Kassel a month later IOTL) which was at the time ruled by Eugene de Beauharnais. If Beauharnais trade Frankfurt for a Royal position in Italy (or Rome as discussed earlier) then I could see Frankfurt (the Grand Duchy) once again be partitioned, if not given to a mediatized Italian or German prince as compensation.
Yeah, I can definitely see a stronger argument against Italian unification here as most of the countries in question would largely be more liberal ITTL. The only outright reactionary states being Sardinia-Piedmont and Sicily. (and even then, the Sardinian kings (at least after VEI) were more receptive to liberalism to a degree)
So, you think Piedmont (and Genoa) might go to Sardinia anyway? I suppose that makes sense.
They would (even though I did initially doubt it at first.) Piedmont would be given back to Sardinia as a buffer between it and the Kingdom of Italy, more to prevent undue French influence. Genoa, and the rest of Liguria may end up being signed away as well given that France holds Nice, they would need a coastline to ensure trade between the island and the mainland, and Genoa would provide a replacement port for the Savoyard kingdom.