Chinese Civil War More like Spanish Civil War

Montgomerie Ward

The Second Sino-Japanese War and the Chinese Civil War were Proxy Wars from what I've observed. The United States, United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union supported the Second United Front while Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy supported Imperial Japan. The United States supported the Kuomintang while the Soviet Union supported the Chinese Communist Party. The POD I propose is, the Soviet Union refusing to support the Kuomintang at all. Instead, they fully support the Chinese Communist Party. Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan then fill the Soviet Union's vacancy as the allies Sun Yat-sen was looking for, creating a Communist Vs. Fascist Proxy War in China. The Invasion of Manchuria is thus diverted because Communism poses that much more of a threat to Imperial Japan than in OTL. The reason why I don't consider OTL to already be a Communist-Fascist proxy war of sorts is because the Soviet Union was helping both the Kuomintang and the Chinese Communist Party.
 
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shiftygiant

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
I don't think I'd really call the Second Sino-Japanese War a Proxy War- by that logic, the Great Patriotic War was also a Proxy War.
 

Blackfox5

Your timeline is hard to achieve because you are very unclear when the POD is supposed to happen. The KMT and CCP did not split until 1927 by which time Sun Yat Sen was already dead, and Nazi Germany didn't even exist. When Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931, again Nazi Germany didn't exist (although the Weimar Republic was supporting China through economic agreements and a military mission).

Instead, you seem to be saying that CCP never joined the KMT to begin with in 1923. The 1920s is not the time for a proxy war. Japanese militarism did not take over the country until after the Great Depression. Nazi Germany does not exist.

Without CCP support, the KMT will take a longer time to develop the military resources to launch the Northern Expedition. At the same time, the CCP will lose out too. It has no safe place to establish itself, and will not make key contacts with the future Nationalist leaders.

The CCP likely remains a small organization based in the cities of the Yangzte Delta and Wuhan.

If the Nationalists are supported heavily by the Japanese instead, it's more likely as a pan-Asian movement, not a fascist movement. This likely allows the Nationalists to build up just as fast if not faster. Chiang still takes over in this timeline. He is not diverted by a Communist uprising during the Northern Expedition, and he unites the country to a far greater degree ITTL.

A proxy war like the Spanish Civil War is hard to achieve. By the time Germany and Japan can fill the role you have for it, the internal politics in China is not.
 

Iron Chancellor

Yeah. But I guess you could wank the Communists by getting a Mao-like figure up earlier, so that there's two unifying forces in China - the KMT and new CCP.
Of course, this wouldn't be the CCP we all know, but there would be a leftist side (KMT) and a radical leftist side (CCP). Warlords lose out.

This, by the way, is in the 1910's and 1920's, when Sun Zhongshan was still alive, but before the Northern Expedition.

If you want it to be rightist KMT vs leftist CCP, you could have CCP become dominant earlier, but go to collectivization too early, which allows the KMT to regain some popularity, as long as they suggest some land reforms.
 
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