Change 1968 and 1970 elections, do the 80s become progressive

Derek Jackson

Suppose Nixon lost to Humphrey (likely if his abuses of Vietnam peace process and Agnew's criminaltiy came out in October 1968)

and Wilson won in 1970 (possibly just requires different trade figures in June 1970)

My guess is that Humprhey wins in 72 but a Republican in 76

Also a Conservative government would be eleected in 74 or 75

I think that results in progressive administrations dominatting the 1980s.

Does this prevent the disasterous shift to the super rich and greed ideology. also maybe shock therpay is not the result of the fall of the Soviet Union?

Any thoughts?
 

frustrated progressive

Derek Jackson said:
Suppose Nixon lost to Humphrey (likely if his abuses of Vietnam peace process and Agnew's criminaltiy came out in October 1968)

and Wilson won in 1970 (possibly just requires different trade figures in June 1970)

My guess is that Humprhey wins in 72 but a Republican in 76

Also a Conservative government would be eleected in 74 or 75

I think that results in progressive administrations dominatting the 1980s.

Does this prevent the disasterous shift to the super rich and greed ideology. also maybe shock therpay is not the result of the fall of the Soviet Union?

Any thoughts?
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The old New Deal Consensus had to change in some way, time itself was slowly altering the conditions of its success, but not necessarily in the same ultimately neoliberal direction that OTL took.
 

sciscisciortino

You'd get left-neoliberalism of a sort. It could be a relatively sedate and rationalist Bob Hawke kind, a dramatic shift that poisons the party leadership with the base of the David Lange type, or a forced pivot from the left of the party like Mitterrand.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Derek Jackson said:
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My guess is that Humprhey wins in 72 but a Republican in 76

Also a Conservative government would be eleected in 74 or 75

I think that results in progressive administrations dominatting the 1980s.

.

.
Click to expand...
That the OPEC 1973 embargo, resulting stagflation, and the 1975 recession even though we had largely come out of it you the time of the 1976 election, still made ‘76 a tough election for the incumbent party.

And especially the late Spring and Summer energy crisis of 1979 made the 1980 election a particularly tough election for incumbents.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Not sure how much of the Yom Kippur War in which Egypt and Syria launched a two-on-one surprise attack against Israel in Oct. ‘73 is hardwired in. I’ve heard someone argue on our site that Egypt’s Anwar Sadat needed a war in which Egypt at least fought Israel to a draw in order to sell a peace treaty to his fellow citizens.

We the U.S. supported Israel which we probably would have done eve without the two-on-one aspect. Arab nations in OPEC decided to embargo us on oil. That would probably happen even in a different timeline.

But one part does have butterfly possibilities — Saudi Arabia tried to act as a peace broker and then got pissed off, maybe because we pissed on their best efforts, or at least did so from their perspective. And this seems like the kind of thing which turns on small actions. Perhaps different people in power could have made a conscious decision not to give and take offense on small things, and meet the other side halfway if at all possible.
 
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Amadeus

If Humphrey had won in 1968 and 1972, the the GOP is guaranteed to win in 1976 and probably 1980 and 1984 as well. As Obama's example shows, a President can get re-elected in the midst of a struggling economy if they try hard enough. And remember that when Obama took office the economy was in worse shape than it ever was under Carter.
 

dw93

Humphrey likely sees a messy end to Vietnam sometime in 1970 or 1971 (I doubt he cuts and runs in '69 but is out quicker than Nixon and Ford) and presides over a divided Democratic party. He might even see a weaker economy as Nixon pulled a lot of tricks to prop the economy up (it went into recession in 1969 and it will under HHH), so with all that and the Democrats holding the White House 12 years, I think Humphrey loses, narrowly, to either Romney, Reagan, or Rockefeller (the first two being most likely choices). The Republicans likely retake the Senate in 1970 and may even make the house close that year as well. A Republican elected in 72 likely eeks out a win in 76, unless the 73-77 term is even worse than OTL, as the Democrats are still likely to have the same divisions without Watergate to carry them over. 73 and in turn 78 and 80 are heavy Democratic wins if a Republican serves two terms. What happens beyond is a mystery.
 
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