Challenge: Balkanizing China

[Ryuise]

Make a PoD of Manchuko, Canton(Guangdong + Yunnan), and Xinjiang an independent countries from China proper until today.

Yes, I mean the Guangdong + Yunnan in HOI3 to form Canton.

Do whatever you like for China Proper, but I think it'll be in Japanese sphere or be a puppet.
Mongolia... uh... Russian sphere/puppet.

Just to clarify, I just wonder if China wasn't united into one, how would today's economy be.

 

[mlp]

Kinda hard. I do wonder why Manchukuo was bolded, however. Does that mean it still needs to be ruled by the Kwantung Army-government?

 

[Ryuise]

Kinda hard. I do wonder why Manchukuo was bolded, however. Does that mean it still needs to be ruled by the Kwantung Army-government?

Yes, but later on, an independent country from Japanese rule and identify themselves as Manchu people, not Chinese.

In addition, Free Tibet if you want.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Yes, but later on, an independent country from Japanese rule and identify themselves as Manchu people, not Chinese.

In addition, Free Tibet if you want.

Kinda hard, considering the Manchus were already a minority in Manchuria at that point. I think a separated Manchuria could work if the Warlord era never ended (no Northern expedition, or one that failed) and the Clique thus keep being aligned with Japan.

Another possibility is Mao losing the Civil War, but is able to establish a Soviet puppet regime in Manchuria. Communists losing the Civil War, and Soviet worries over KMT being too US friendly could make this happen as well as make Sheng Shicai's rule in Xinjiang survive.

Regarding the Southern cliques, you basically need the KMT to fail completely during the 20s, and you still wouldn't get your desired outcome, since instead of one United Canton, the era would be divided between several warlord cliques.

 

[Ryuise]

What "if" in the Civil War, the British and French supported the southern cliques for greater penetration of the market in exchange for modernizing and being sovereign from Nat Chi.
The Russians decides to put up a puppet gov of Xinjiang and Mongolia.
Then the Kwangtung Army invaded Manchuria and set up a puppet like OTL. However, the Japanese higher-ups gave a death penalty to the army and reconstructed a new army that is not insane. Ofc, no more expansion unless they want to get the remaining parts of China.

Then de-colonization era...

Plausible enough?

 

[Monadologie]

What "if" in the Civil War, the British and French supported the southern cliques for greater penetration of the market in exchange for modernizing and being sovereign from Nat Chi.

This. I think the key here is increased colonial presence. This would serve two purposes: the obvious increase in foreign power relative to the central government, and the increased power of local warlords in reaction to the foreign incursions.

Given this, I can see this happening with a POD as late as the 1880s.