What if the famous and tough as nails abolitionist Cassius M. Clay was somehow nominated as Abraham Lincoln’s running mate in the 1860 election instead of Hannibal Hamlin? What would happen?
Cassius M. Clay as Abe’s Vice President in 1860?
- Thread starter TheDetailer
- Start date
There's a good chance that the Republican ticket would win a plurality but not the majority of the Electoral College. Especially back in 1860, the Republican Party was a coalition that was more Whig than Democrat but could not afford to lose Free Soil and anti-Nebraska Democrats and if you read the book Team of Rivals, they do talk about how economic issues like the tariff needed to be addressed to win votes. Having a ticket composed of two ex-Whigs would definitely weaken its appeal especially with someone like Cassius Clay from a neighboring state as opposed to a Northeasterner like Hamlin. Regional balance counted for more back then as well.
Let's say California, Oregon, and NY did not go Republican. Most likely Douglas wins California and Breckinridge wins Oregon. 25 of NY's votes would've gone to Douglas while 10 would've gone to Breckinridge, allowing Douglas to narrowly edge out John Bell and make it into the top 3 to be decided amongst the members of the House of Representatives. Based on the composition of the 36th congress, what probably would've happened is that Douglas would've won the 2nd ballot as no party control the majority of the state delegations and the Southern unionists most likely throwing their weight behind Douglas on the first, with most Democrats switching to give Douglas the win after it becomes clear that Breckinridge was a no go for the Southern unionists. The Democratic Senate meanwhile easily elects Joseph Lane to be the next vice president.
In conclusion, Stephen Douglas would probably have become president with Joseph Lane as vice president, delaying the Civil War in favor of the North as the House election radicalizes the Republican Party while weakening the pro-slavery Democrats with Douglas as a strong Unionist with a much stronger spine than Pierce or Buchanan. Or something like that.
Let's say California, Oregon, and NY did not go Republican. Most likely Douglas wins California and Breckinridge wins Oregon. 25 of NY's votes would've gone to Douglas while 10 would've gone to Breckinridge, allowing Douglas to narrowly edge out John Bell and make it into the top 3 to be decided amongst the members of the House of Representatives. Based on the composition of the 36th congress, what probably would've happened is that Douglas would've won the 2nd ballot as no party control the majority of the state delegations and the Southern unionists most likely throwing their weight behind Douglas on the first, with most Democrats switching to give Douglas the win after it becomes clear that Breckinridge was a no go for the Southern unionists. The Democratic Senate meanwhile easily elects Joseph Lane to be the next vice president.
In conclusion, Stephen Douglas would probably have become president with Joseph Lane as vice president, delaying the Civil War in favor of the North as the House election radicalizes the Republican Party while weakening the pro-slavery Democrats with Douglas as a strong Unionist with a much stronger spine than Pierce or Buchanan. Or something like that.