Can a South Nigerian state survive after Arewa (North Nigeria) breaks off?

[The Banker]

Before we begin. The outcomes of this discussion are only upto 1980s. We are not going to be discussing longterm events upto 2024 or something. So if you think that SN can survive till 1982 but not 2024, then it still counts as 'South Nigeria survives'

So in 1966, there was a coup by southern Igbo officers in Nigeria who wanted to establish a unitary state. They were counter-couped later on by Northern officers and federal system was reinstated. But from literature, I have learned that allegedly the Northern officer's backup plan was to establish an independent 'Republic of Arewa' (A Hausa-Fulani) state in the north if the coup had failed. Now assuming this allegation is true. Suppose this really happened and was followed by a war which reached a stalemate and ceasefire by around 1970. Arewa supported by Arabs and Pakistan, South by Israel and possibly France. Then what happens to the south?
Will Yorubas and Igbos work together post-war or will they fracture into two nations with the North making a deal either with the the Biafran nation(Igbos) or Yorubaland for oil rights?
Or will South Nigeria remain a unified one party state under Johnson Aguiyi Oronsi?
@walmart @Arkenfolm @Hrvatskiwi @Rickshaw

If there is any specialist on Nigeria then please please help
Note, the scenario in the below map is not the same as what I am discussing. The map is for reference only
Map link:

https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginarymaps/comments/171dybj

Ethnic map of Nigeria

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Before we begin. The outcomes of this discussion are only upto 1980s. We are not going to be discussing longterm events upto 2024 or something. So if you think that SN can survive till 1982 but not 2024, then it still counts as 'South Nigeria survives'

So in 1966, there was a coup by southern Igbo officers in Nigeria who wanted to establish a unitary state. They were counter-couped later on by Northern officers and federal system was reinstated. But from literature, I have learned that allegedly the Northern officer's backup plan was to establish an independent 'Republic of Arewa' (A Hausa-Fulani) state in the north if the coup had failed. Now assuming this allegation is true. Suppose this really happened and was followed by a war which reached a stalemate and ceasefire by around 1970. Arewa supported by Arabs and Pakistan, South by Israel and possibly France. Then what happens to the south?
Will Yorubas and Igbos work together post-war or will they fracture into two nations with the North making a deal either with the the Biafran nation(Igbos) or Yorubaland for oil rights?
Or will South Nigeria remain a unified one party state under Johnson Aguiyi Oronsi?
@walmart @Arkenfolm @Hrvatskiwi @Rickshaw

If there is any specialist on Nigeria then please please help
Note, the scenario in the below map is not the same as what I am discussing. The map is for reference only
Map link:

https://www.reddit.com/r/imaginarymaps/comments/171dybj

Ethnic map of Nigeria

What literature is the assertion about a separatist northern Nigeria? Never heard about it and I'm curious.

 

[The Banker]

What literature is the assertion about a separatist northern Nigeria? Never heard about it and I'm curious.

I know this sounds pathetic but the literature is wikipedia 🥺 🥲 . Again this thread assumes that thats what happens

Murtala Muhammed - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[andry2806]

So fundamentally if the coups went in a different direction there would have been a reverse Biafra?

 

[Lalli]

So fundamentally if the coups went in a different direction there would have been a reverse Biafra?

Probably. And this might make things worse. If I am not completely wrong that border is not only just ethnic lineage but too border of Christian and Muslim majority areas.

 

[rfmcdonald]

The north would have a majority of the Nigerian population, but it would be quite poor.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Assuming the south stays together, it does have oil

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Assuming the south stays together, it does have oil

There's a lot of potential for the south if they can acquire a capital and technical know-how to kickstart the oil industry. I kinda did this in my TL by having a anti-West Congo and a Saudi Arabia couped by Nasserists prompting greater American interest in Sub-Saharan Africa and particularly the development of petroleum reserves in the Gulf of Guinea. As it is the south is richer than the north of Nigeria, and I imagine that without funds from the area being siphoned off north they might be even wealthier.

 

[Lalli]

Assuming the south stays together, it does have oil

True but them too should play cards right and avoid coups and some other serious troubles.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I know there's little to no chance of this happening with a POD in the '60s but it'd be interesting if Lagos broke off and was its own megacity-state, it was once its own colony. More realistically could've been part of a separate Yorubaland that splits from the southeast? Maybe merge with the Yoruba areas of Togo and Benin?