Broken Arrow 10MT nuke detonates in Albuquerque in 1957

acgoldis

Just found about this incident during my vacation in New Mexico.


i was debating putting this in ASB as I can't imagine the weapon being armed for typical transport. However, what if it had been armed and the 10 MT nuke had detonated? IOTL the convention explosives detonated (leaving a big crater) but the nuclear part was thankfully not armed. No radioactivity was detected in the area after the accident.

Note that people reported the accidental drop of the bomb to (presumably) Kirtland AFB at the time of the incident. However, if the bomb detonates on impact, will anyone be around to report that it was an accident? Kirtland is 4 miles away from ground zero so it won't be in a position to relay the information. According to Nukemap Albuquerque is not going to have a good day. Remember that Albuquerque (as the article states) was a prime target for an attack. It's possible this could have been seen as a Soviet pre-emptive attack (but did the Soviets have 10 MT bombs by then)...but if so how would they imagine the Soviets delivering the weapon to the target?

Fallout could be a problem depending on which way the wind was blowing, though from what I could tell the area around there is sparsely populated (and heavily Native American). Santa Fe may be at risk though.
 
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CV12Hornet

Yeah, checking Nukemap myself the thermal radiation radius covers pretty much the entire modern Albuquerque metro, and the city would've been smaller in 1957. Place is toast.
 

Veiovis

Uff. That is well over a hundred thousands fatalities plus tens of thousands of (heavily) wounded. That will have...consequences.
 

Roland Rmoutil

Banned
acgoldis said:
Fallout could be a problem depending on which way the wind was blowing, though from what I could tell the area around there is sparsely populated (and heavily Native American). Santa Fe may be at risk though.
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Nuclear Fallout would most likely extend all the way to Western Kansas and Southwestern Nebraska. Santa Fe would also need to be immediately evacuated, along with most of Northeastern New Mexico.
 

acgoldis

Something tells me that telling Native Americans to get up and leave because of something the white man did isn't going to go over well, even if it is in their best interests here...
 

173rd LRRP

acgoldis said:
Just found about this incident during my vacation in New Mexico.


i was debating putting this in ASB as I can't imagine the weapon being armed for typical transport. However, what if it had been armed and the 10 MT nuke had detonated? IOTL the convention explosives detonated (leaving a big crater) but the nuclear part was thankfully not armed. No radioactivity was detected in the area after the accident.

Note that people reported the accidental drop of the bomb to (presumably) Kirtland AFB at the time of the incident. However, if the bomb detonates on impact, will anyone be around to report that it was an accident? Kirtland is 4 miles away from ground zero so it won't be in a position to relay the information. According to Nukemap Albuquerque is not going to have a good day. Remember that Albuquerque (as the article states) was a prime target for an attack. It's possible this could have been seen as a Soviet pre-emptive attack (but did the Soviets have 10 MT bombs by then)...but if so how would they imagine the Soviets delivering the weapon to the target?

Fallout could be a problem depending on which way the wind was blowing, though from what I could tell the area around there is sparsely populated (and heavily Native American). Santa Fe may be at risk though.
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Well there would have gone my Highland Highschool (Albuquerque) class of 1958
 

Roland Rmoutil

Banned
I searched for the wind speeds and wind direction for Albuquerque for that day, the wind was blowing Southwest to Northeast, at 19.6 mph. Also I've seen differing reports on whether the bomb was 10 MT or 15 MT.
 

acgoldis

Roland Rmoutil said:
I searched for the wind speeds and wind direction for Albuquerque for that day, the wind was blowing Southwest to Northeast, at 19.6 mph. Also I've seen differing reports on whether the bomb was 10 MT or 15 MT.
Click to expand...

Santa Fe is in trouble. I can see no easy way to evacuate it in time (how many roads go out of that city? Sure, you've got interstates, but they'll be clogged). Fortunately, it will likely be smaller than the 90K people there now.
 
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acgoldis

The big question is do the Soviets get blamed, especially if there is no way to tell what happened as there is no one left to report that it was an accident. And given that it was supposedly an experimental weapon I would expect the 10 MT warhead is classified so the US can't say it has it.

Sure, I don't understand how the Soviets can deliver the weapon. But the US government has no idea if there is something missing in their intelligence so they have to assume they managed it somehow. On the other hand, the weapon weighed 21 tons and I can't imagine something that size being carried around in a truck. But given a yield that high all they have to do is park it in scrubland 2 miles from the target and set it off.
 
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acgoldis

In case you want to look into the ramifications of this leading to an accidental war, here is 1957 IOTL with respect to the Cold War. Note that Sputnik will not be launched for a few more months, so any attempt to deliver a weapon would be by ICBM.

1957
January 5: The Eisenhower Doctrine commits the United States to defending Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan from Communist influence.
January 22: Israeli forces withdraw from the Sinai, which they had occupied the previous year.
February 15: Andrei Gromyko begins his long tenure as Foreign Minister of the Soviet Union.
March 6: Ghana becomes independent from the UK under Commonwealth status.
May 2: Senator Joseph McCarthy succumbs to illness exacerbated by alcoholism and dies.
May 15: The United Kingdom detonates its first hydrogen bomb.
[May 22nd: Albuquerque explosion. Interesting considering what happened a week earlier...]
October 1: The Strategic Air Command initiates 24/7 nuclear alert (continuous until termination in 1991) in anticipation of a Soviet ICBM surprise attack capability.
October 4: Sputnik satellite launched. The same day the Avro Arrow is revealed.
November 3: Sputnik 2 was launched, with the first living being on board, Laika.
November 7: The final report from a special committee called by President Dwight D. Eisenhower to review the nation's defense readiness indicates that the United States is falling far behind the Soviets in missile capabilities, and urges a vigorous campaign to build fallout shelters to protect American citizens.
November 15: Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev claims that the Soviet Union has missile superiority over the United States and challenges America to a missile "shooting match" to prove his assertion.
December 16–19: NATO holds its first summit in Paris, France. It is the first time NATO leaders have meet together since the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty in April 1949.

I can almost imagine tensions rising after the incident, the US getting pissed, Sputnik getting launched (I can't imagine that being postponed, especially as entry into space is a milestone for the human race as a whole), and the US initiating hostilities to get the Soviets out of the way before they can drop missiles from orbit. And if Khrushchev were to issue this challenge (albeit foolishly in this case) ITTL I bet the US takes him up on it...

I wonder how a war would turn out in 1957. It wouldn't be the first time disaster was caused by an accident.
 
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CV12Hornet

acgoldis said:
Santa Fe is in trouble. I can see no easy way to evacuate it in time (how many roads go out of that city? Sure, you've got interstates, but they'll be clogged). Fortunately, it will likely be smaller than the 90K people there now.
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No interstates, construction has only just started on Interstate 25. US 85 skirts along the south of Santa Fe connecting it to Albuquerque and Denver to the northeast. Heading north is US 285, which skirts up to the north through the Rockies to eventually reach Denver. And that's it: the only other highway out of Santa Fe is State Route 475, which dead ends at Santa Fe Ski Basin.

285 at least intersects with multiple other state routes to divert traffic.
 
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tonycat77

tonycat77

Banned
I doubt Eisenhower would blame the soviets.
This would probably end his administration however, or at least guarantee a mass purge of the USAF.
Also i think this would create a massive disarmament movement that would make the hippies and the 1980s anti IRBM crowd look like minor stuff.
Soviets although tempted by the propaganda opportunity would probably censor this as it would drive a similar anti-nuclear movement in the soviet union.
 

acgoldis

tonycat77 said:
I doubt Eisenhower would blame the soviets.
This would probably end his administration however, or at least guarantee a mass purge of the USAF.
Also i think this would create a massive disarmament movement that would make the hippies and the 1980s anti IRBM crowd look like minor stuff.
Soviets although tempted by the propaganda opportunity would probably censor this as it would drive a similar anti-nuclear movement in the soviet union.
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I agree on the disarmament movement. The question is whether the Soviets would wonder whether this could happen to their weapons as well and follow suit. If the American weapons can have accidents, why can't their own?

Small kiloton weapons seem to come to mind more in this case: you can destroy what you want (provided you can deliver it) and are less likely to take out things you don't want in case of accidental detonation. In the case of the Soviets, perhaps the weapon can be delivered from space as you are ahead in the space race.

Tactical kiloton nukes to take out enemy divisions could be used at some point. But no city busters.
 
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Roland Rmoutil

Banned
acgoldis said:
Santa Fe is in trouble. I can see no easy way to evacuate it in time (how many roads go out of that city? Sure, you've got interstates, but they'll be clogged). Fortunately, it will likely be smaller than the 90K people there now.
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I give a weeks top for a complete evacuation of Santa Fe, meaning half will possibly get cancer, and the other half will die within the next week from radiation poisoning. Lots of reparations (if the US even decides to give reparations) would be needed to pay for the damage.
 

acgoldis

Roland Rmoutil said:
I give a weeks top for a complete evacuation of Santa Fe, meaning half will possibly get cancer, and the other half will die within the next week from radiation poisoning. Lots of reparations (if the US even decides to give reparations) would be needed to pay for the damage.
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Would they go as far as to evacuate Denver? Or is that too far away?
 

pjmidd

acgoldis said:
The big question is do the Soviets get blamed, especially if there is no way to tell what happened as there is no one left to report that it was an accident. And given that it was supposedly an experimental weapon I would expect the 10 MT warhead is classified so the US can't say it has it.

Sure, I don't understand how the Soviets can deliver the weapon. But the US government has no idea if there is something missing in their intelligence so they have to assume they managed it somehow. On the other hand, the weapon weighed 21 tons and I can't imagine something that size being carried around in a truck. But given a yield that high all they have to do is park it in scrubland 2 miles from the target and set it off.
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Largest Soviet device is around 3 MT , no Soviet ICBM's yet , R-16 the first operational is 1961
 

Roland Rmoutil

Banned
acgoldis said:
Would they go as far as to evacuate Denver? Or is that too far away?
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Denver is too far to be evacuated, at least in my opinion. Here's a map of the detonation site and fallout.

Yellow (1 Rad per hour) to Red (1,000 Rads per hour), at least for the fallout. All of Albuquerque, its growing suburbs, and its exurbs and local towns are all toast.
1633995238467.png
 

acgoldis

Roland Rmoutil said:
Denver is too far to be evacuated, at least in my opinion. Here's a map of the detonation site and fallout.

Yellow (1 Rad per hour) to Red (1,000 Rads per hour), at least for the fallout. All of Albuquerque, its growing suburbs, and its exurbs and local towns are all toast.
View attachment 686676
Click to expand...
There will be significant error bars in those fallout traces depending on the winds. How big was Denver at the time? If it's a large city within the error bars it may be worth evacuation.
 
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