Brittany Remains Independent Until the 17th Century?

[Kellan Sullivan]

Inspired by the "Anne of Brittany keeps Brittany Independent" thread going, I was wondering what French (and European) politics would look like if Fransez II of Brittany had had a son. Either that a) his OTL son (b.1462) survives or b) that Anne or Isabeau of Brittany are born male, or c) Fransez II takes the plunge and marries a third time after his second wife's death and father's a son. Option c) is not really my favourite, since the boy would be a babe in arms at the time of Fransez' OTL death, so France might simply bring him to be raised in Paris and the boy ends up as a glorified hostage.

Brittany keeps it's de facto rather than de jure independence for a century more. What does this mean for Breton and European politics? How does the Reformation affect Brittany (because I'm not sure that a POD in Brittany the 1460s-1480s is enough to affect butterflies in Rome to prevent a Reformation happening, although the effect might be minimalized)? Normandie was known as "Petit Nurembourg" during the Wars of Religion IIRC, and several prominent Breton families (like the Lavals, the Montmorencies and the Rohans) went Protestant during the 16th century (or at least, had Protestant branches).

An interesting effect would be on France. Since Charles is unlikely to jilt Margarethe of Austria for a Breton princess (who's not heiress). Which means that that is already going to be having effects on the progression of things in Spain, Italy and the Empire. Also, is Margarethe's marriage contract going to stipulate that (like Anne's), in the event that Charles dies sonless, Margarethe must marry Louis XII? I somehow doubt it, mostly because Maximilian is a canny politician, whereas, AIUI, Anne of Brittany essentially had her marriage contract forced on her at swordpoint.

@Brita @Jan Olbracht @isabella @VVD0D95 @CaptainShadow @FalconHonour @Awkwardvulture

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Ooh, hello, are you referring to my thread?

If Anne is male, well, he won't go through the repeated pregnancies obviously. He won't marry anybody he married IOTL. Perhaps ITTL he can wed Joan of France (as Anne as a woman wed Charles VIII)? Brittany keeping de facto independence probably requires a foreign power backing them though. Francis I, IOTL, was initially tolerant due to his stance as a humanist. Only post 1534 Placards Affair did he think Protestantism a threat. Male Anne would likely still be Catholic. So it will be interesting to see if he is tolerant or not

 

[isabella]

Inspired by the "Anne of Brittany keeps Brittany Independent" thread going, I was wondering what French (and European) politics would look like if Fransez II of Brittany had had a son. Either that a) his OTL son (b.1462) survives or b) that Anne or Isabeau of Brittany are born male, or c) Fransez II takes the plunge and marries a third time after his second wife's death and father's a son. Option c) is not really my favourite, since the boy would be a babe in arms at the time of Fransez' OTL death, so France might simply bring him to be raised in Paris and the boy ends up as a glorified hostage.

Brittany keeps it's de facto rather than de jure independence for a century more. What does this mean for Breton and European politics? How does the Reformation affect Brittany (because I'm not sure that a POD in Brittany the 1460s-1480s is enough to affect butterflies in Rome to prevent a Reformation happening, although the effect might be minimalized)? Normandie was known as "Petit Nurembourg" during the Wars of Religion IIRC, and several prominent Breton families (like the Lavals, the Montmorencies and the Rohans) went Protestant during the 16th century (or at least, had Protestant branches).

An interesting effect would be on France. Since Charles is unlikely to jilt Margarethe of Austria for a Breton princess (who's not heiress). Which means that that is already going to be having effects on the progression of things in Spain, Italy and the Empire. Also, is Margarethe's marriage contract going to stipulate that (like Anne's), in the event that Charles dies sonless, Margarethe must marry Louis XII? I somehow doubt it, mostly because Maximilian is a canny politician, whereas, AIUI, Anne of Brittany essentially had her marriage contract forced on her at swordpoint.

@Brita @Jan Olbracht @isabella @VVD0D95 @CaptainShadow @FalconHonour @Awkwardvulture

You can be sure who Margaret’s contract had no clause of that type (Anne and Charles‘ contract gave Brittany to him if she died childless before him and forced her to remarry to his successor if she survived him and they had no son)

 

[Brita]

In the first hypothesis, John would be an adult and probably already married when his father dies. I can't see Frañsez marrying him to a French princess so maybe Elizabeth of York? As far as the Reformation is concerned, I think the families who became Protestant OTL will convert as well ITTL. If England still goes Protestant ITTL, it could have effects on Brittany, as I think the Dukes will certainly remained their allies, at least for the years to come.
There's also the discovery of America. Breton fishermen already sailed the Atlantic at the time, looking for codfish, so an independent Duchy of Brittany in the 16th century is bound to have colonies in America.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

. Perhaps ITTL he can wed Joan of France (as Anne as a woman wed Charles VIII)

Joan had problems birthing in an heir. It's why Louis XI married her to the Orléans line. To ensure their "extinction"/"entrapment". So unless he has plans to do the same to Brittany (for what reason? It's not like the Orléans estates that return to the crown. Brittany just moves along to the prince d'Orange).

Brittany keeping de facto independence probably requires a foreign power backing them though.

They'd survived since the Treaty of Guérande as an "independent" state, and both Savoie and Lorraine survived long after Brittany had been absorbed into France. True, in both cases they either married French/French proxies (like Savoie) or spent considerable time at the Habsburg court due to France annexing their lands (like Lorraine), but both were considered "independent" courts by everybody else.

You can be sure who Margaret’s contract had no clause of that type (Anne and Charles‘ contract gave Brittany to him if she died childless before him and forced her to remarry to his successor if she survived him and they had no son)

I suspected that Margarethe's contract was dissimilar, but I wasn't sure if, given France's eagerness to secure Artois, Franche-Comté they might have included a clause like the remarriage one. That, by the standards of the day, wasn't so weird. AIUI marriages/engagement contracts usually contained such a proviso that "if X was to marry Y, but X/Y died either before the marriage took place or there were children, then the survivor would wed X/Y's brother/sister".

In the first hypothesis, John would be an adult and probably already married when his father dies. I can't see Frañsez marrying him to a French princess so maybe Elizabeth of York?

Wasn't it guaranteed by treaty that the duke of Brittany/his heir could only marry with French approval though? Or was that only from later?

As far as the Reformation is concerned, I think the families who became Protestant OTL will convert as well ITTL. If England still goes Protestant ITTL, it could have effects on Brittany, as I think the Dukes will certainly remained their allies, at least for the years to come.

That'll be fun to see. Particularly if France remains staunchly Catholic

There's also the discovery of America. Breton fishermen already sailed the Atlantic at the time, looking for codfish, so an independent Duchy of Brittany in the 16th century is bound to have colonies in America.

Colonies? Or trading/victualling posts? Does Brittany have the resources to have a colony across the Atlantic? I'm not doubting the possibility, just wondering if it could "sustain" it

 

[Brita]

Wasn't it guaranteed by treaty that the duke of Brittany/his heir could only marry with French approval though? Or was that only from later?

That was the Treaty of Sablé (20 August 1488). By that time, John would be 26 and certainly already married.

That'll be fun to see. Particularly if France remains staunchly Catholic

Maybe more French Protestant refugees in Brittany?

Colonies? Or trading/victualling posts? Does Brittany have the resources to have a colony across the Atlantic? I'm not doubting the possibility, just wondering if it could "sustain" it

To be honest I don't know about the Breton resources. There'll be trading posts, that's for sure. But the trade of cod, furs etc. won't be a negligible source of income so these trading posts may develop into colonies. And if Brittany sees an influx of Protestants refugees as I mentioned just before, a Protestant colony, probably controlled by a Protestant Breton noble family, might be created.

 

[LeCHVCK]

Colonies? Or trading/victualling posts? Does Brittany have the resources to have a colony across the Atlantic? I'm not doubting the possibility, just wondering if it could "sustain" it

Kurland and the Knights of Malta had the resources for small colonies. So Brittany could be a player in the colonisation game. Their colonies would probably be too weak to defend themselves without a strong motherland, which means Brittany could lose it in a war. But what's stopping Brittany from doing the same things the Dutch did just on a smaller scale? Especially as they have no war with Spain.

 

[Count of Crisco]

The biggest potential butterfly is that France would want to keep Brittany on good terms, if not outright try and conquer it. A Brittany on good terms with Paris would not bother the French to much, but if there are tensions and it becomes a British ally then suddenly you are looking at a second round of the hundred years war, fought largely on French soil.

 

[isabella]

In the first hypothesis, John would be an adult and probably already married when his father dies. I can't see Frañsez marrying him to a French princess so maybe Elizabeth of York? As far as the Reformation is concerned, I think the families who became Protestant OTL will convert as well ITTL. If England still goes Protestant ITTL, it could have effects on Brittany, as I think the Dukes will certainly remained their allies, at least for the years to come.
There's also the discovery of America. Breton fishermen already sailed the Atlantic at the time, looking for codfish, so an independent Duchy of Brittany in the 16th century is bound to have colonies in America.

He is not good enough for Elizabeth, but would work nicely for Mary (to be replaced by Cecily, if her sister died as OTL)

 

[Brita]

He is not good enough for Elizabeth, but would work nicely for Mary (to be replaced by Cecily, if her sister died as OTL)

Good, do we know what Mary died of OTL? Her death may be butterflied if she's married.

 

[isabella]

Good, do we know what Mary died of OTL? Her death may be butterflied if she's married.

No we do not know, but she was already 14 years old so she can be married before that

 

[ordinarylittleme]

No we do not know, but she was already 14 years old so she can be married before that

14 is a bit too young to marry, no? Canon age is 15

 

[isabella]

14 is a bit too young to marry, no? Canon age is 15

No, the legal age for consummation was 12 for girls and 14 for boys so Mary will be old enough for being married

 

[ordinarylittleme]

No, the legal age for consummation was 12 for girls and 14 for boys so Mary will be old enough for being married

Oh OK. What do you think would happen to Brittany itself with this change?

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I wonder how many of these countries are there- Brittany, Burgundy, Navarre.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

He is not good enough for Elizabeth, but would work nicely for Mary (to be replaced by Cecily, if her sister died as OTL)

@Jan Olbracht ?

Oh OK. What do you think would happen to Brittany itself with this change?

That's a valid question. After all Brittany wouldn't be in PU with France (as OTL) but it wouldn't be in PU with England either (as planned with Anne-Edward V). The Jean-Mary/Cecily match makes the whole Tudor story "awkward". Since one of the conditions is likely that the Tudors get sent back to England (and it'll be BEFORE Edward IV's OTL death if Mary/Cecily gets married at at least 12yo, which puts it at 1478 (Mary) or 1480 (Cecily).). If Tudor's in England, and Dickon pulls his OTL stunt (lets be frank, a second/third daughter married to Brittany is NOT the same sort of threat that EoY married to the emperor or king of France would be. Esp since IIRC Dickon and Frañsez got on better than Frañsez and Edward IV), who is going to Tumbledown Dick? So I definitely think this can have big repercussions on English history. We either see a lasting Yorkist England (if the Mary/Cecily marriages see EoY's wedding to Maximilian/Charles VIII go through) or we see a Ricardian England because of no Bosworth. After all, Mary/Cecily-Jean can't claim the throne AHEAD of Elizabeth. Not with any more "legitimacy" than Dickon does.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

If Tudor's in England, and Dickon pulls his OTL stunt (lets be frank, a second/third daughter married to Brittany is NOT the same sort of threat that EoY married to the emperor or king of France would be.

Well, if Tudor's in England most likely him and Jasper would join Buckingham's rebellion which might see it succeeding.

 

[Brita]

Well, if Tudor's in England most likely him and Jasper would join Buckingham's rebellion which might see it succeeding.

If Tudor's in England, wouldn't he be closely watched though?

 

[kasumigenx]

Anne of Brittany marrying the Prince of Asturias when she is not an heiress would be good for the Catholic monarchs as she has claims to Navarre as well, and she could have a son the same age as Catherine or Madeleine of Navarre.

 

[ordinarylittleme]

If Tudor's in England, wouldn't he be closely watched though?

Closely watched but he can still get allies